Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Febuary 1 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

 
Significant Feature: High pressure ridge over northern Caribbean.

Morning: Mainly fair.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy and cool with isolated showers mainly over northern parishes.

Tonight: Cool with isolated showers.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 30C (86F)     Low: 22C (71F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:40 a.m.
 6:02 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:45 a.m.
 6:07 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:46 a.m.
 6:08 p.m.
 
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
221 PM AST FRI FEB 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...AND SPREADS EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT LOW LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...CONTINUED TO WEAKEN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL HOWEVER BE
REINFORCED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUE TO
RELAX TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHWARD RECEDING ATLANTIC
HIGH...A MODERATE EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW PERSISTED ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS RESULTED IN OCCASIONAL TRANSPORT OF CLUSTERS OF LOW
TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED LESSER
MOISTURE ADVECTION TODAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN OVERALL STEERING
FLOW FROM THE EAST AROUND 15 MPH. WITH THAT SAID... EXPECT VERY
LITTLE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE FAST MOVING AND OF SHORT DURATION.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND INTO THE WEEKEND...STILL LOOKING FOR SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECREASING PWAT VALUES AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT A FEW QUICK PASSING TRADE WINDS SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...AND ALONG PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTION OF THE
ISLANDS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE DAYTIME WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF UPPER
RIDGE AXIS AND THUS SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT. LONG TERM...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER IN SIGHT...HOWEVER BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR MOSTLY NOCTURNAL AND EARLY
MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD-SCT -SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER LOCAL FLYING
AREA AND PR THROUGH 02/00Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR MAINLY W/PASSING SHOWERS. DRIER
AIR AND MOSTLY VFR CONDS WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA WITH LIMITED
SHWR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FLYING AREA AFT 02/00Z. LLVL WNDS WILL BE
FROM THE ENE TO E AT 15 KT RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS NEAR
SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE CANCELLED EARLIER TODAY
AS WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
LATEST DATA FROM BUOYS 41043/42085/41053 INDICATED WINDS AND WAVE
HEIGHTS WERE ALL BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...
MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS DUE TO
SLIGHT CHOP DUE TO WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 70 83 72 81 / 10 0 10 10
STT 71 84 71 83 / 0 10 10 10

[Macrocane]

The winds will persist through the weekend in Central America:

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A TIGHTLY PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AND LOW PRES S
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AS SEEN BY AN EARLIER OCEANSAT PASS. LATE AFTERNOON
LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS FROM IXTEPEC MEXICO WERE 25 KT GUSTS 35
KT. SEAS OF 9-12 FT ARE COINCIDENT WITH THE GALE FORCE WINDS...
WITH ADDITIONAL SEAS OF 8-11 FT CONTINUING TO SPREAD TO THE SW
OF THE GULF TO 07N. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BRIEF
DIMINISHING OF THE WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE SAT AFTERNOON...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUN MORNING
...AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT SUN INTO MON MORNING. THE GALE WARNING
HAS NOW BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THE ENTIRE 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD
BASED ON THE CONTINUING TRENDS OF ADDITIONAL MINIMAL GALE
CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS/MORNINGS...ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE JUST BELOW GALE FORCE FOR A FEW HOURS EACH
AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS UP TO
11 FT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF TO
AROUND 92W THROUGH LATE MON MORNING.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE
ISTHMUS OF PANAMA FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE GULF OF
PANAMA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL NOW LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SUN
EVENING...OCCASIONALLY WEAKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN EACH NIGHT/MORNING.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A good weekend weatherwise is expected so enjoy it.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
510 AM AST SAT FEB 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
HOLDS THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS
NOTED...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INDUCE MAINLY EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST TRADE
WINDS...WHICH WILL TRANSPORT SOME ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS FROM
TIME TO TIME TO THE LOCAL AREA. OVERALL...LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND AS A VERY DRY AIR MASS ENCOMPASS THE
REGION FROM THE EAST. LATEST SJU-GFS COMPUTER MODEL INDICATED PW
VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1.0 INCH THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
ONLY PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFFECTING THE REGION FORM TIME TO TIME.
IN GENERAL...VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH IS TYPICAL
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 82 72 / 0 0 0 10
STT 84 72 83 72 / 10 0 0 10

[cycloneye]

Febuary 2 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: High pressure ridge over northern Caribbean.

Morning: Mainly fair.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy and cool with isolated showers mainly over northern parishes.

Tonight: Cool with isolated showers.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 30C (86F)     Low: 22C (71F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:39 a.m.
 6:03 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:44 a.m.
 6:08 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:45 a.m.
 6:09 p.m.
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST SAT FEB 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN AS TROUGH EXPANDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS EXPECTED...A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
PATTERN PERSISTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH NO SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WEATHER REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH...SOME CLOUDINESS AND A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS CANT BE RULED OUT DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN
THE TRADES. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED BY MID WEEK WHEN MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
EAST AT AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET AND A GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 83 71 81 / 0 0 10 10
STT 72 83 72 83 / 0 0 10 10

[Macrocane]

An update of the Central American Cold Surges Thread with the observations from the 2 events we've had this year so far, including the one that produced snow: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=2298702#p2298702

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Excellent weather for today in the NE Caribbean.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
559 AM AST SUN FEB 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO TODAY WHILE MID LEVEL
RIDGE HOLDS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. DEEP TROUGH WILL THEN BECOME
ESTABLISHED MID NEXT WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SMALL PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFFECTED
THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT ISOLATED LIGHT PASSING
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF FOR PUERTO RICO. LATEST
SATELITE IMAGES AND TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMMS SHOWS A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL REGION THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VERY DRY TODAY...WITH LITTLE SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED. SJU-GFS COMPUTER MODEL INDICATED PW VALUES WILL
DROP TO NEAR 0.75 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ALSO THETAE
VALUES AT 700 MB WILL DROP TO NEAR 313K. VERY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE A
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...IN THE
LONG TERM...AT THIS MOMENT...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST
AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 71 82 71 / 0 10 10 0
STT 84 72 83 72 / 10 10 10 0

[cycloneye]

Febuary 3 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: Frontal trough across the central Caribbean.

Morning: Mainly fair.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy with isolated showers mainly over northern parishes.

Tonight: Cool with isolated showers.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 30C (86F)     Low: 22C (71F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:39 a.m.
 6:03 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:44 a.m.
 6:08 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:45 a.m.
 6:09 p.m.
 


[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. A more wetter pattern will start by midweek but until then,let's enjoy this good weather we are having.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
228 PM AST SUN FEB 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AS TROUGH EXPANDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL
NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE
BY MID WEEK...AS TROUGH EXPANDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS
A RESULT...A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL THEN. ALTHOUGH...
SOME CLOUDINESS AND A FEW PASSING SHOWERS CANT BE RULED OUT DUE TO
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AS WELL AS MOISTURE ADVECTION ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH EXPANDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WETTER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS PREVAIL INTO MON...PROB WITHOUT ANY SHRA THAT
WOULD LOWER CONDS ALTHO ISOLD SHRA WL RETURN TONITE A FEW LOCATIONS.
LLVL WIND BLO FL100 VRBL LESS THAN 10 KT INTO MON MRNG BCMG ENE
15-25 KT LATE MON.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET AND A GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 83 73 82 / 10 10 10 10
STT 72 83 72 84 / 10 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

I had to share with all of you this beautiful image of San Juan on this Sunday without a cloud and a blue sky. I think this kind of weather is happening in many of the islands but things will change by midweek.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
537 AM AST MON FEB 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SUBEQUATORIAL UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS DEEP TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. A NEAR
ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET MEANDERS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...FAVORING AN
CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT. AT LOW LEVELS...DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS
WILL ENCOMPASS THE AREA TODAY...PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOOPS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE
NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. WV IMAGERY ALSO SUGGEST A EXTREMELY DRY
AIR MASS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE FROM 500MB TO 250MB ATMOSPHERE.
LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING AS WELL AS AMDAR/MDCRS AVIATION DATA INDICATE A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 800MB AND 700MB...WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND USVI OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE ARE ALSO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ACROSS USVI AND PUERTO RICO BASED ON THE SATELLITE DERIVED
PWAT ANALYSIS. 04/00Z GFS TIME-SERIES PLOTS SUGGEST A PWAT MINIMA
OF 0.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY MORNING, THEREFORE...LOTS OF SUNSHINE CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND EARLY TUESDAY...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION...IF ANY...DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PUERTO
RICO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WEATHER WILL CHANGE TO WETTER PATTERN AS MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE EAST AND SHORT-WAVE ENERGY ALOFT MOVES OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ISLES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 06/22Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 5 TO 10
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF UP TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY AS A NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM TUESDAY EVENING TO LATE WEDNESDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 86 73 / 0 10 10 20
STT 83 72 85 72 / 0 10 10 30

[cycloneye]

Febuary 4 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: Frontal trough across the central Caribbean.

Morning: Mainly fair.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy with isolated showers mainly over northern parishes.

Tonight: Cool with isolated showers.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 30C (86F)     Low: 22C (71F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:39 a.m.
 6:03 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:44 a.m.
 6:08 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:45 a.m.
 6:09 p.m.
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST MON FEB 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO STALL
NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE CAP WILL
CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-WEEK. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND VERY LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AS WELL AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...AS RIDGE SLOWLY COLLAPSES. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS WELL AS K
INDEX VALUES INCREASING THROUGH THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...EXPECT A BIT WETTER PATTERN ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS WERE FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST
AT 10 TO 15 KTS BECOMING FROM THE WEST ABV FL250 WITH JET SEGMENT
MAX OF AROUND 50 KTS OR SO BTW FL350-FL400. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX
HAZARDS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
A NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL WILL INVADE THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS
TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 66 DEGREES WAS SET AT
CHRISTIANSTED AIRPORT/USVI TODAY. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD
OF 67 DEGREES SET BACK IN 2005...1992...1954 AND 1952.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 84 71 83 / 10 10 20 20
STT 72 84 72 85 / 10 10 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A more wetter pattern will start to affect the NE Caribbean on Thursday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST TUE FEB 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SUBEQUATORIAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING A BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. A MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE WEDNESDAY AS SLOWLY DISSIPATES. A STATIONARY SURFACE
FRONT WILL REMAIN MAINLY ALONG 20 NORTH...WITHOUT AFFECTING THE
FORECAST AREA DIRECTLY. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUES THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY. THE FREQUENCY OF THE TRADE WIND SHOWERS INCREASES
FROM THURSDAY TO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE AIR COVERING MOST OF THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC WEST OF 55W. AS A RESULT...
CONTINUE TO EXPECT A GENERALLY STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND USVI THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. MODELS THEN TREND
TOWARDS A WETTER SOLUTION FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH PWAT INCREASING QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
ISLES. THIS IS A CONSEQUENCE OF A PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BANDS ADVECTING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO BOOST THE TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN
THE MORNING. THIS WETTER PATTERN SEEMS TO HOLD UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHEN THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHEARLINE
APPROACH TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONT ALL TAF SITES. VCNTY SHRA AT TISX/TNCM/TKPK BUT
VFR LIKELY EVEN SO. WINDS SFC-FL100 E 12-20 KT BCMG SE FL100-FL200.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A PULSE OF NORTH SWELL WILL INVADE THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS EVENING...CAUSING A BRIEF INCREASE IN SEAS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT SHOT
OF A MODERATE TO LARGE NNW SWELL WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK...POTENTIALLY
REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS AT ITS PEAK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 71 83 72 / 10 20 20 30
STT 83 72 84 73 / 20 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Febuary 5 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: Frontal trough across the central Caribbean.

Morning: Partly cloudy over eastern parishes, mainly fair elsewhere.

Afternoon: Expect periods of showers mainly over eastern and central parishes.

Tonight: Cool and fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 30C (86F)     Low: 22C (71F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:38 a.m.
 6:04 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:43 a.m.
 6:09 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:44 a.m.
 6:10 p.m.
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST TUE FEB 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS TROUGH MEANDERS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SHEARLINE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE CAP FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THESE FEATURES WILL COLLAPSE AS TROUGH
MEANDERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AS RIDGE SLOWLY COLLAPSES...
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AND WILL COMBINE
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND
FLOW...EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AS WELL
AS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY
A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN
PUERTO RICO. A SHEAR LINE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ENHANCING CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHRA. SURFACE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 5 TO 20 KTS BELOW 10KT.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
A PULSE OF NORTH SWELL WILL INVADE THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
EVENING...INCREASING SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 83 71 83 / 20 20 30 30
STT 72 84 73 84 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
939 PM AST TUE FEB 5 2013

.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN DURING THE EVENING. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS BRUSHED PARTS
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WERE FAST MOVING AND OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE INTENSITY. EXPECT CONTINUED INTERVALS OF PASSING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS...UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES. INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW...PREVIOUS GFS MODEL RUN
INITIALED WELL AND DID SUGGEST THE PRESENT SURGE OF SHALLOW
MOISTURE WHICH WAS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTED GRADUAL
DIMINISHING OF CLOUD COVER BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT STILL EXPECT
LOCAL SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND POCKETS OF MOISTURE TO HELP GIVE
WAY TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE
DAYTIME. RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUED TO ERODE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION FORECAST TO EJECT NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT LACKS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION...
SO ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASED AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WEST
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND PASSING SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL CAUSE
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AS PASSING SHRA MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VIS UNDER
6SM...CIGS FOR USVI AND EASTERN PR BECOMING BKN-OVC FL050 TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EASTERLY AT 5-10KTS AT THE SFC INCREASING TO
AROUND 15KTS AT FL020. AFTER 06/12Z...SHRA BCMG ISOLD ACROSS THE
AREA WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 10-15KTS AT THE SFC WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...LATEST WIND AND WAVE SUMMARY FROM BUOY DATA
OBTAINED FROM BOTH THE SAN JUAN...AND RINCON BUOYS AS WELL AS
THAT FROM 41043 NNE OF PUERTO RICO...ALL SUGGEST NORTHERLY SWELL
ACTION CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS BUT SUBSIDING...WITH
OVERALL OFFSHORE SEAS NEAR 6 FEET OR SO. REPORTED WINDS BETWEEN
12 TO 15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO UP TO 19 KNOTS. SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD THEREFORE CONTNUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION
OVERNIGHT.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Yes,rain is in the forecast for the next few days so prepare for that,


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST WED FEB 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA
IS PRODUCING A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TRADE WIND
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED PATCHES/BANDS OF LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS BRUSHED PORTIONS OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WERE FAST MOVING AND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE INTENSITY. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION
APPROACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE WEST...HAS DEEPENED THE
MARINE LAYER AND MADE THE AIR MASS SUPPORTIVE FOR CLOUDINESS AND
MORE ROBUST TRADE WIND SHOWERS. LATEST MIMIC/CIMMS PWAT ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS SEVERAL BANDS/FRAGMENTS OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE UPSTREAM
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. MODELS ARE
STILL TRENDING TOWARDS A WETTER SOLUTION FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING FROM 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES. OVERALL...
EXPECTING SHALLOW CELLS TO CLUSTER ACROSS THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE
ISLANDS TODAY...PRODUCING LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS THEY PROGRESS
WESTWARD. FOR THURSDAY TO SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...RESULTING
IN BETTER CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONT. SCT SHRA MAINLY N OF PR THIS MRNG USUALLY WL
NOT LWR CIG/VSBY. ELSEWHERE ISOLD/SCT SHRA THRU TONIGHT BUT STILL
PRIMARILY VFR. LLVL WIND SFC TO FL100 E-SE 10 TO 20 KT THRU TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST MARINE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTHERLY
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. BUOYS REPORTED WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET IN NNW SWELLS. AS A RESULT...SMALL CRAFT
OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 70 85 71 / 20 30 30 40
STT 84 72 84 73 / 20 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

Febuary 6 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: Surface trough across the central Caribbean.

Morning: Mainly fair.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy with isolated showers mainly over northern parishes.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 10 knots (12 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 23C (73F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:38 a.m.
 6:05 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:43 a.m.
 6:10 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:44 a.m.
 6:11 p.m.