Caribbean - Central America Weather
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145336
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST WED FEB 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION BY MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED SMALL
AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. FEW SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO LATE IN THE MORNING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
WERE FAST MOVING AND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS PATCHES
OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM TIME TO TIME
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. IN FACT...PWAT VALUES WILL SLIGHTLY
INCREASE UP TO 1.50 INCHES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT SPECIALLY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE FA BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND FEW SHOWERS IN
AND AROUND THE LOCAL TAF SITES. AS A RESULT...MVFR CONDITIONS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN SHRA. LLVL WNDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST 5-10 KTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 84 71 82 / 30 30 40 40
STT 71 82 74 83 / 30 30 40 40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST WED FEB 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION BY MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED SMALL
AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. FEW SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO LATE IN THE MORNING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
WERE FAST MOVING AND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS PATCHES
OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM TIME TO TIME
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. IN FACT...PWAT VALUES WILL SLIGHTLY
INCREASE UP TO 1.50 INCHES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT SPECIALLY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE FA BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND FEW SHOWERS IN
AND AROUND THE LOCAL TAF SITES. AS A RESULT...MVFR CONDITIONS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN SHRA. LLVL WNDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST 5-10 KTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 84 71 82 / 30 30 40 40
STT 71 82 74 83 / 30 30 40 40
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145336
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
Good morning. Variable weather will prevail in the NE Caribbean for the next couple of days with a mix of clouds,showers and sunshine.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
351 AM AST THU FEB 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLC WILL DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE NEXT WEEK. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING EVENTUALLY BUILDS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. CFNT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON TUE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MODELS SHOW LOCAL AREA STILL UNDER SUBSIDENCE MUCH
OF THE DAY TODAY BETWEEN A WEAK MID LEVEL TROF TO THE SOUTH AND
MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY CROSSING 70W. MODELS
SHOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ERODING QUICKLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
DESPITE MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE-TROUGH ALREADY TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA. EXPECT SCT-NMRS SHOWERS ON THE NORTHEAST COAST FRI
MORNING WITH SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON THE NORTHWEST. VERY DRY AIR
WILL BE WORKING INTO THE ERN PR AND USVI DURING THE DAY FRI. APPEARS
VERY DRY SAT UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND CONVERGENT UPPER FLOW ON
RIGHT EXIT REGION OF SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK.
CLOUDIER AND COOLER ON SUN AS WINDS TURN NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHEARLINE. CLOUDY AND TURNING COOLER MON-MON NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
PRIMARILY ON THE NORTH COAST AS CDFNT STARTS APPROACHING THE AREA.
CDFNT CLEARS THE AREA BY TUE WITH VERY COOL DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT.
TURNING WINDY ALSO AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND BUILDING HIGH
PRES TO THE NORTH. FRONT STALLS ALONG 17N BY MID WEEK AND WHILE GFS
SHOWS REMNANT MOISTURE RETROGRADING TOWARD THE AREA FRONT WILL
START LOSING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT UNDER INCREASINGLY UPPER
CONVERGENT FLOW BETWEEN EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND BUILDING
RIDGE FROM THE WEST. SO AM VERY SKEPTICAL OF THE MODEL ATTM OF
BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA MID NEXT WEEK.
TURNING DRYER WARMER AND BREEZY MID NEXT WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
SURFACE AND ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CLOUDS AND SHRA WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS IN THE
MORNING. SOME AFTERNOON SHRA WILL FORM ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN
THE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR
CONDS NEAR THE SHRA. LLVL WIND WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT
AROUND 15 KTS FROM THE SFC TO FL020.
&&
.MARINE...RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT LARGE NORTH
SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT TUE. IT APPEARS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE MON DUE TO STRENGTHENING WINDS AND BUILDING
SWELLS. SCA`S AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SUBSIDENCE APPEARS OT WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER DAY
TODAY KEEPING FIRE DANGER ELEVATED ACROSS THE SOUTH. SHOWERS
EXPECTED MAINLY ON THE NORTHEAST COAT TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FRI AFTERNOON. VERY DRY SAT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. COOLER SUN BUT STILL VERY DRY. CLOUDY
MOST AREAS MON AS CDFNT APPROACHES THE AREA. IT APPEARS THOUGH AS
THE SOUTH WILL MISS MUCH OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT.
VERY DRY NEXT TUE AS CDFNT CLEARS THE AREA WITH VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER DUE TO STRENGTHENING WINDS. TURNING WARMER DRYER AND BREEZY
MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 71 82 71 / 20 50 50 10
STT 82 74 83 73 / 40 60 60 20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
351 AM AST THU FEB 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLC WILL DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE NEXT WEEK. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING EVENTUALLY BUILDS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. CFNT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON TUE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MODELS SHOW LOCAL AREA STILL UNDER SUBSIDENCE MUCH
OF THE DAY TODAY BETWEEN A WEAK MID LEVEL TROF TO THE SOUTH AND
MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY CROSSING 70W. MODELS
SHOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ERODING QUICKLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
DESPITE MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE-TROUGH ALREADY TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA. EXPECT SCT-NMRS SHOWERS ON THE NORTHEAST COAST FRI
MORNING WITH SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON THE NORTHWEST. VERY DRY AIR
WILL BE WORKING INTO THE ERN PR AND USVI DURING THE DAY FRI. APPEARS
VERY DRY SAT UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND CONVERGENT UPPER FLOW ON
RIGHT EXIT REGION OF SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK.
CLOUDIER AND COOLER ON SUN AS WINDS TURN NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHEARLINE. CLOUDY AND TURNING COOLER MON-MON NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
PRIMARILY ON THE NORTH COAST AS CDFNT STARTS APPROACHING THE AREA.
CDFNT CLEARS THE AREA BY TUE WITH VERY COOL DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT.
TURNING WINDY ALSO AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND BUILDING HIGH
PRES TO THE NORTH. FRONT STALLS ALONG 17N BY MID WEEK AND WHILE GFS
SHOWS REMNANT MOISTURE RETROGRADING TOWARD THE AREA FRONT WILL
START LOSING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT UNDER INCREASINGLY UPPER
CONVERGENT FLOW BETWEEN EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND BUILDING
RIDGE FROM THE WEST. SO AM VERY SKEPTICAL OF THE MODEL ATTM OF
BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA MID NEXT WEEK.
TURNING DRYER WARMER AND BREEZY MID NEXT WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
SURFACE AND ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CLOUDS AND SHRA WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS IN THE
MORNING. SOME AFTERNOON SHRA WILL FORM ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN
THE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR
CONDS NEAR THE SHRA. LLVL WIND WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT
AROUND 15 KTS FROM THE SFC TO FL020.
&&
.MARINE...RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT LARGE NORTH
SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT TUE. IT APPEARS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE MON DUE TO STRENGTHENING WINDS AND BUILDING
SWELLS. SCA`S AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SUBSIDENCE APPEARS OT WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER DAY
TODAY KEEPING FIRE DANGER ELEVATED ACROSS THE SOUTH. SHOWERS
EXPECTED MAINLY ON THE NORTHEAST COAT TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FRI AFTERNOON. VERY DRY SAT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. COOLER SUN BUT STILL VERY DRY. CLOUDY
MOST AREAS MON AS CDFNT APPROACHES THE AREA. IT APPEARS THOUGH AS
THE SOUTH WILL MISS MUCH OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT.
VERY DRY NEXT TUE AS CDFNT CLEARS THE AREA WITH VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER DUE TO STRENGTHENING WINDS. TURNING WARMER DRYER AND BREEZY
MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 71 82 71 / 20 50 50 10
STT 82 74 83 73 / 40 60 60 20
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145336
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
Febuary 7 Jamaica forecast:
Code: Select all
Significant Feature: High pressure ridge across the northern Caribbean.
Morning: Mostly sunny.
Afternoon: Mainly fair, except for isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.
Tonight: Fair.
Winds: Will reach in excess of 10 knots (12 mph)
Temperatures: High: 31C (88F) Low: 23C (73F)
Location
Sunrise
Sunset
Kingston
6:38 a.m.
6:05 p.m.
Montego Bay
6:43 a.m.
6:10 p.m.
Negril
6:44 a.m.
6:11 p.m.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145336
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST THU FEB 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...THE BROAD TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS HAVE AFFECTED THE LOCAL
WATERS...THE USVI AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN PR. A SURGE OF MOISTURE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN...INCREASING
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AFTER THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE ON
FRIDAY...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH
WILL LEAVE US WITH ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING EVEN DRIER AIR AS WELL AS AN INCREASE
IN WIND SPEED. THE INCREASE IN WIND SPEED IS DUE TO A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUDS AND SHRA WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WITH SHRA
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 08/08Z...RESULTING IN MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDS NEAR THE SHRA. LLVL WIND WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 15 KTS FROM THE SFC TO FL100.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 5 FEET OR LESS TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO INVADE THE
AREA ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AS OF NOW...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH THIS SWELL...THERE IS
ALSO THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASE IN WIND SPEED FOR THAT SAME
TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 84 71 82 / 50 50 10 10
STT 73 84 73 84 / 60 60 20 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST THU FEB 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...THE BROAD TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS HAVE AFFECTED THE LOCAL
WATERS...THE USVI AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN PR. A SURGE OF MOISTURE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN...INCREASING
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AFTER THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE ON
FRIDAY...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH
WILL LEAVE US WITH ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING EVEN DRIER AIR AS WELL AS AN INCREASE
IN WIND SPEED. THE INCREASE IN WIND SPEED IS DUE TO A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUDS AND SHRA WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WITH SHRA
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 08/08Z...RESULTING IN MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDS NEAR THE SHRA. LLVL WIND WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 15 KTS FROM THE SFC TO FL100.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 5 FEET OR LESS TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO INVADE THE
AREA ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AS OF NOW...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH THIS SWELL...THERE IS
ALSO THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASE IN WIND SPEED FOR THAT SAME
TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 84 71 82 / 50 50 10 10
STT 73 84 73 84 / 60 60 20 20
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145336
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
Good morning. A good weekend weatherwise is expected for the NE Caribbean but a Cold Front will arrive on Monday bringing scattered showers and cooler temperatures.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
417 AM AST FRI FEB 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF BROAD MEAN TROF
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. A CDFNT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT AND
THEN STALL ALONG 17N.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE-TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ACROSS LARES YESTERDAY HAS MOVED WELL TO THE EAST WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE BUILDING OVER PR FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MORNING SHOWERS
TO WANE AFTER SUNRISE BUT STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
NW PR DUE TO LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. HOWEVER HI-RES
MODELS ONLY SHOW VERY SPOTTY SHRA ACTIVITY ACROSS NW PR AND GFS
SHOWS VERY LARGE H85 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WORKING RAPIDLY WWD BY
18Z INTO SJU AND OFF THE NW COAST BY 00Z SAT. VERY DRY FRI NIGHT
AND WARMER SAT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
COOLER ON SUN AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME STRONGER
WITH THE RISK OF SHOWERS INCREASING. CLOUDY MON-MON NIGHT WITH
GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA AS
CDFNT MOVES ACROSS AND NORTHEAST FLOW DEEPENS. CDFNT STALLS SOUTH
OF PR TUE. QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT WILL PUSH AS MODELS
SHOW FRONT REMAINING INTACT THROUGH WED KEEPING LOW CLOUDS THROUGH
WED. SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST FRONT MAKING A PRETTY
FAR SOUTH UNDER A PRETTY DECENT HIGH NEAR 1025+ MB AND FRONT LOOSING
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT UNDER INCREASINGLY UPPER CONVERGENT FLOW. NOT
CONFIDENT ON GFS SOLUTION OF KEEPING SFC BDRY AND CLOUDS AROUND FOR
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN PASSING
SHOWERS AT P.R. AND U.S.V.I. TAF SITES...AS A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE ACROSS U.S.V.I. AFT 08/15Z AND AT P.R. TAF
SITES AFT 08/20Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LLVL WIND
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KTS FROM THE SFC
TO FL100.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS MON-TUE UNDER
STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS AND BUILDING NORTH SWELLS. EXPECT SCA
AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LOOKS IT WILL BE ANOTHER WINDY DAY AGAIN IN THE
SOUTH AND THE USVI. QUESTION IS RH`S. VERY DRY AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
USVI BY NOON AND INTO ERN PR BY 18Z. LATEST HI-RES MODELS SHOW
SKIES REMAINING CLEAR ACROSS THE SOUTH UNDER A STIFF ESE WIND.
HUMIDITIES WILL BE MARGINAL BUT THE EXTREME FUEL DRYNESS...VERY
HIGH FUEL LOADS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE PLENTY TO SUPPORT
ANOTHER DAY OF SIG FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH. IT
APPEARS MORE STABLE TODAY THAN YDAY UNDER INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
AS SEEN ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH USVI...VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA WILL LIKELY SEE MIN_RH`S DROP QUITE A BIT FUELS AND FUEL
LOADS ARE NOT AS CRITICAL THERE AS THEY ARE IN SRN PR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 72 82 72 / 50 10 10 20
STT 84 74 84 74 / 60 10 10 20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
417 AM AST FRI FEB 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF BROAD MEAN TROF
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. A CDFNT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT AND
THEN STALL ALONG 17N.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE-TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ACROSS LARES YESTERDAY HAS MOVED WELL TO THE EAST WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE BUILDING OVER PR FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MORNING SHOWERS
TO WANE AFTER SUNRISE BUT STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
NW PR DUE TO LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. HOWEVER HI-RES
MODELS ONLY SHOW VERY SPOTTY SHRA ACTIVITY ACROSS NW PR AND GFS
SHOWS VERY LARGE H85 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WORKING RAPIDLY WWD BY
18Z INTO SJU AND OFF THE NW COAST BY 00Z SAT. VERY DRY FRI NIGHT
AND WARMER SAT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
COOLER ON SUN AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME STRONGER
WITH THE RISK OF SHOWERS INCREASING. CLOUDY MON-MON NIGHT WITH
GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA AS
CDFNT MOVES ACROSS AND NORTHEAST FLOW DEEPENS. CDFNT STALLS SOUTH
OF PR TUE. QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT WILL PUSH AS MODELS
SHOW FRONT REMAINING INTACT THROUGH WED KEEPING LOW CLOUDS THROUGH
WED. SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST FRONT MAKING A PRETTY
FAR SOUTH UNDER A PRETTY DECENT HIGH NEAR 1025+ MB AND FRONT LOOSING
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT UNDER INCREASINGLY UPPER CONVERGENT FLOW. NOT
CONFIDENT ON GFS SOLUTION OF KEEPING SFC BDRY AND CLOUDS AROUND FOR
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN PASSING
SHOWERS AT P.R. AND U.S.V.I. TAF SITES...AS A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE ACROSS U.S.V.I. AFT 08/15Z AND AT P.R. TAF
SITES AFT 08/20Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LLVL WIND
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KTS FROM THE SFC
TO FL100.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS MON-TUE UNDER
STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS AND BUILDING NORTH SWELLS. EXPECT SCA
AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LOOKS IT WILL BE ANOTHER WINDY DAY AGAIN IN THE
SOUTH AND THE USVI. QUESTION IS RH`S. VERY DRY AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
USVI BY NOON AND INTO ERN PR BY 18Z. LATEST HI-RES MODELS SHOW
SKIES REMAINING CLEAR ACROSS THE SOUTH UNDER A STIFF ESE WIND.
HUMIDITIES WILL BE MARGINAL BUT THE EXTREME FUEL DRYNESS...VERY
HIGH FUEL LOADS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE PLENTY TO SUPPORT
ANOTHER DAY OF SIG FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH. IT
APPEARS MORE STABLE TODAY THAN YDAY UNDER INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
AS SEEN ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH USVI...VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA WILL LIKELY SEE MIN_RH`S DROP QUITE A BIT FUELS AND FUEL
LOADS ARE NOT AS CRITICAL THERE AS THEY ARE IN SRN PR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 72 82 72 / 50 10 10 20
STT 84 74 84 74 / 60 10 10 20
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- cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
Febuary 8 Jamaica forecast:
Code: Select all
Significant Feature: High pressure ridge across the northern Caribbean.
Morning: Mostly sunny.
Afternoon: Mainly fair, except for isolated showers over hilly interior areas.
Tonight: Fair.
Winds: Will reach in excess of 10 knots (12 mph)
Temperatures: High: 31C (88F) Low: 23C (73F)
Location
Sunrise
Sunset
Kingston
6:37 a.m.
6:05 p.m.
Montego Bay
6:42 a.m.
6:10 p.m.
Negril
6:43 a.m.
6:11 p.m.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST FRI FEB 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH SOUTH OF JAMAICA WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVED ACROSS THE FA TODAY...
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...BY MID MORNING A SLOT OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR MOVED
MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE
FEW SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PUERTO
RICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER
MASS WILL ENCOMPASS AGAIN THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH PWAT
VALUES DECREASING TO AROUND 1.0 INCH BOTH DAYS. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...INDUCING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY MONDAY...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN THE NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ
THROUGH 08/22Z. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 22Z...LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW -SHRA OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS. LLVL
WIND WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE ESE AT 10 TO 20 KTS FROM THE SFC TO
FL030.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS MON-TUE UNDER
STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS AND BUILDING NORTH SWELLS. EXPECT SCA
AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 72 84 / 10 10 20 50
STT 73 84 74 84 / 10 10 20 50
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST FRI FEB 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH SOUTH OF JAMAICA WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVED ACROSS THE FA TODAY...
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...BY MID MORNING A SLOT OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR MOVED
MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE
FEW SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PUERTO
RICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER
MASS WILL ENCOMPASS AGAIN THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH PWAT
VALUES DECREASING TO AROUND 1.0 INCH BOTH DAYS. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...INDUCING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY MONDAY...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN THE NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ
THROUGH 08/22Z. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 22Z...LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW -SHRA OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS. LLVL
WIND WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE ESE AT 10 TO 20 KTS FROM THE SFC TO
FL030.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS MON-TUE UNDER
STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS AND BUILDING NORTH SWELLS. EXPECT SCA
AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 72 84 / 10 10 20 50
STT 73 84 74 84 / 10 10 20 50
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- Gustywind
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TEMPERATURES
Not even cold, of first!
M.A. France-Antilles Guadeloupe 08.02.2013

16, 6 C ° to Sainte-Rose Tuesday morning. It is cold. But nothing unusual for the season, explains to weather France.
In the morning, it's cool. Or even downright cold. Mandatory jumper on the terrace, or even polar. Cats are points each against the other, just if you don't see the mist above the cup of tea.
Exaggerated? Yes and no. In fact, except a 16, 6 ° to Sainte-Rose Tuesday morning, current temperatures have nothing exceptional for the season. "Between 19 and 21 ° depending on the sector," says Sylvain Lamothe, France weather forecaster. This is normal. I would say that it is not so fresh. "However, printing is much fresher. "This is what is called felt cold (read opposite), says Lamothe. To weather France, here, we measure the temperature of the air. But this temperature may be different from that one feels on the skin, which may vary depending on the rate of moisture or wind. "In short, one has the impression of being cold, but this is not a truly objective cold.
EFFECTS ON INFLUENZA AND DENGUE FEVER?
We will see what thinks of the influenza virus. In general, it is not particularly well from the cold and the opportunity to go blithely from one to the other. But if the cold is that felt... The next figures for the current epidemic (850 cases per week) will throw the ambiguity.
We'll also see if this temperature has an effect on outbreaks of dengue fever, including half a dozen appeared in recent weeks, including Saint-François, the mould and Petit-Bourg. Mosquitoes, and in particular the aedes, vectors of dengue fever, do not like the cold. Below 21 °, they do not fly. And it is in this niche of temperature that the insecticide spraying is more effective.
Finally, it is certain, this climate is rather good for the cane and allows EDF to make some savings. At the present time, the tip by EDF amounted to 220 megawatts. In June, at the hottest time of the year, the peak stands at 260 megawatts. The conditions of this early February have this advantage to save 40 MW each evening. This is not anecdotal: This allows to mobilize 2 engines less central Jarry diesel.
-[color=#0000FF]Windchill[/color]
The conventional temperature measurement, as it is carried out by weather France, is under shelter, while the felt temperature include the force of the wind. This last is inversely proportional to the perceived temperature. In other words: the wind blows strong, more perceived temperature decrease. Called this phenomenon chill or wind. During periods of cold, the wind causes it to evaporate the water to the surface of the body, and this evaporation demand energy. This energy is taken to the body which releases heat. Accordingly, the sensation of cold induced by the wind adds to the actual ambient air temperature, which lowers the temperature at the surface of the body.
-A good 'heat stress.
Current climate conditions, if they are unpleasant for our bodies, are an asset to the cane. Its wealth - rate in sugar - indeed depends on not only heat, but double stress, heat and water. Water stress, it is drought, which is normally installed during Lent. Heat stress occurs when there is a significant variation in the temperature between the heat of the day and the cool of the night, which is clearly the case at the moment.
Note that some sources indicate that stress conditions thermal important, established over a period of two weeks minimum, are also required to obtain a good production of lychees. We'll know in a few weeks if the current stress was enough...
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- cycloneye
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Re:
Gustywind wrote:Hey Cycloneye, what about la isla del encanto?
![]()
It has been cold in the interior towns where the temperatures have dropped between the low 50's and high 60's in the last few weeks and that is normal here.
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- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: Re:
cycloneye wrote:Gustywind wrote:Hey Cycloneye, what about la isla del encanto?
![]()
It has been cold in the interior towns where the temperatures have dropped between the low 50's and high 60's in the last few weeks and that is normal here.
OK thanks to you and fro this this precious answer



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- cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
Good morning.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
415 AM AST SAT FEB 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...MEAN TROF WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD MID NEXT WEEK. CFNT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT AND STALL ALONG 17N TUE WHERE IT WILL
DISSIPATE ON WED.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING TODAY AND MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE
SPOTTY WITH MAINLY THICK CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY LEADING TO A BIT MORE NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS. COOLER SUN AND MORE SHOWERY SUN AS NORTHEAST FLOW DEEPENS
AND HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROF. CDFNT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MON WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SCT
SHOWERS MAINLY ON THE NORTH COAST. FRONT STALLS ALONG 17N TUE
WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE WED.
GFS SHOWS REMNANT MOISTURE AFFECTING PR TUE-THU HOWEVER MODELS
INDICATE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
DRYING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. AM STILL SKEPTICAL OF GFS SOLUTION.
OVERALL...EXPECT LITTLE CHANCES OF RAIN AFTER MON NIGHT AS STRONG
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVR THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AFT 09/17Z. EAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS
EXPECTED TODAY...BECOMING FROM THE NORTHEAST AFT 10/00Z.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD QUICKLY MON MORNING IN NORTH
SWELLS AND STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS. SWELLS WILL PEAK EARLY TUE
BUT SEAS REMAIN ROUGH UNDER STRONG TRADES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SHORTWAVE RIDGING TODAY WILL LEAD TO SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST
PR. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE ESE AND GUSTY AND SLIGHTLY MORE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER ELEVATED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 84 73 / 10 20 30 30
STT 84 75 84 75 / 10 20 30 30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
415 AM AST SAT FEB 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...MEAN TROF WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD MID NEXT WEEK. CFNT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT AND STALL ALONG 17N TUE WHERE IT WILL
DISSIPATE ON WED.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING TODAY AND MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE
SPOTTY WITH MAINLY THICK CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY LEADING TO A BIT MORE NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS. COOLER SUN AND MORE SHOWERY SUN AS NORTHEAST FLOW DEEPENS
AND HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROF. CDFNT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MON WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SCT
SHOWERS MAINLY ON THE NORTH COAST. FRONT STALLS ALONG 17N TUE
WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE WED.
GFS SHOWS REMNANT MOISTURE AFFECTING PR TUE-THU HOWEVER MODELS
INDICATE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
DRYING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. AM STILL SKEPTICAL OF GFS SOLUTION.
OVERALL...EXPECT LITTLE CHANCES OF RAIN AFTER MON NIGHT AS STRONG
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVR THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AFT 09/17Z. EAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS
EXPECTED TODAY...BECOMING FROM THE NORTHEAST AFT 10/00Z.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD QUICKLY MON MORNING IN NORTH
SWELLS AND STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS. SWELLS WILL PEAK EARLY TUE
BUT SEAS REMAIN ROUGH UNDER STRONG TRADES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SHORTWAVE RIDGING TODAY WILL LEAD TO SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST
PR. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE ESE AND GUSTY AND SLIGHTLY MORE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER ELEVATED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 84 73 / 10 20 30 30
STT 84 75 84 75 / 10 20 30 30
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- cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
236 PM AST SAT FEB 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SEABOARD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO CROSS OVER THE
REGION BY MONDAY.
&&
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
236 PM AST SAT FEB 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SEABOARD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO CROSS OVER THE
REGION BY MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRIER AIR MASS
CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION. ONLY FEW LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS
WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THIS SLOT OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST
OVER THE FA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS DRY WILL ALMOST WIPE OUT
ANY CONVECTION IN SPITE OF FAIR INSTABILITY. IN FACT PWAT VALUES
DECLINED TO AROUND 1.0 INCH TODAY AS INDICATED IN THE 09/12Z TJSJ
SOUNDING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...INDUCING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SEABOARD BY
SUNDAY...PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION AND
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN THE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BY MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONT AND EVEN ISOLD SHRA PROB WL NOT CAUSE LOWER
CONDS. LLVL WIND E 12-22 KT BCMG NE TONITE/SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL MOST OF SUNDAY...SEAS
STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT/MON MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 84 72 81 / 20 30 30 50
STT 73 83 73 83 / 20 30 30 30
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONT AND EVEN ISOLD SHRA PROB WL NOT CAUSE LOWER
CONDS. LLVL WIND E 12-22 KT BCMG NE TONITE/SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL MOST OF SUNDAY...SEAS
STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT/MON MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 84 72 81 / 20 30 30 50
STT 73 83 73 83 / 20 30 30 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
236 PM AST SAT FEB 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SEABOARD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO CROSS OVER THE
REGION BY MONDAY.
&&
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
236 PM AST SAT FEB 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SEABOARD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO CROSS OVER THE
REGION BY MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRIER AIR MASS
CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION. ONLY FEW LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS
WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THIS SLOT OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST
OVER THE FA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS DRY WILL ALMOST WIPE OUT
ANY CONVECTION IN SPITE OF FAIR INSTABILITY. IN FACT PWAT VALUES
DECLINED TO AROUND 1.0 INCH TODAY AS INDICATED IN THE 09/12Z TJSJ
SOUNDING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...INDUCING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SEABOARD BY
SUNDAY...PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION AND
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN THE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BY MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONT AND EVEN ISOLD SHRA PROB WL NOT CAUSE LOWER
CONDS. LLVL WIND E 12-22 KT BCMG NE TONITE/SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL MOST OF SUNDAY...SEAS
STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT/MON MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 84 72 81 / 20 30 30 50
STT 73 83 73 83 / 20 30 30 30
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONT AND EVEN ISOLD SHRA PROB WL NOT CAUSE LOWER
CONDS. LLVL WIND E 12-22 KT BCMG NE TONITE/SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL MOST OF SUNDAY...SEAS
STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT/MON MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 84 72 81 / 20 30 30 50
STT 73 83 73 83 / 20 30 30 30
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Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
It has been kind of warm in Central America in the last few days, actually it has been very warm in the day and fairly cool at nights, which is normal for February. This weekend we've had some northerly breezes in the region that keep us cool at night.
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER SW CARIBBEAN FUNNEL
STRONG WINDS ACROSS MOUNTAIN GAPS IN NICARAGUA RESULTING IN
STRONG BREEZE PULSES INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...INCREASING
MAINLY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AND DIMINISHING TO A FRESH
BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH MON.
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER SW CARIBBEAN FUNNEL
STRONG WINDS ACROSS MOUNTAIN GAPS IN NICARAGUA RESULTING IN
STRONG BREEZE PULSES INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...INCREASING
MAINLY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AND DIMINISHING TO A FRESH
BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH MON.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
Good morning. A Cold Front will arrive on Monday increasing the showers to the PR/VI and Northern Leewards area.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
417 AM AST SUN FEB 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLC WILL SWING EAST
ACROSS THE ATC WITH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MON NIGHT.
WEAKENING CDFNT WILL CLEAR THE AREA MON NIGHT AND DISSIPATE
QUICKLY ON TUE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY BEHIND
SHEARLINE. IT STILL APPEARS THOUGH AS LOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE DRY
AND ANY SHOWERS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST IF
ANY. NORTHEAST FLOW DEEPENS TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SHALLOW INSTABILITY INCREASE AS CDFNT APPROACHES. SHOULD SEE A
MARKED INCREASE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS AND
NORTHERN HALF OF PR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. OVERALL...CLOUDY...VERY
COOL MON AND MON EVENING AND WINDY WITH GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
MAINLY ON THE NORTH COAST.
DRYING EXPECTED LATE MON NIGHT AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND UPPER
LEVEL CONFLUENCE BECOMES ESTABLISHED AS JET STREAK PUSHES SOUTH OF AREA.
EXPECT FRONT TO WASH OUT QUICKLY DURING THE DAY TUE. GFS CONTINUES
TO SHOW REMNANT MOISTURE STICKING AROUND FOR A FEW DAYS THROUGH
WED. HOWEVER...I CONTINUE TO BE VERY SKEPTICAL OF THIS SOLUTION
DUE TO THE DEGREE OF UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND THE ECMWF SOLUTION
OF KEEPING THINGS DRY. EXPECT A DRYING TREND WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
VEERING TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WARMING TREND
EXPECTED STARTING TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS WITH NO SIG WX. CLOUDS
HOWEVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY WITH CIGS BECOMING
BKN-OVC040. WINDS 15G20KT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND CALM AT NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS AMZ710 MON
THROUGH TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATE TONIGHT AND MON
WITH 22-KT WINDS ACROSS ALL OF THE OPEN WATERS AND PASSAGES.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE WED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SOME IMPROVEMENT TODAY IN TERMS OF WINDS AS
NORTHEAST FLOW TYPICALLY RESULTS IN REDUCED SPEEDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL FRICTION AND REDUCTION FROM A SEA BREEZE
COMPONENT FROM THE SOUTH. STILL APPEARS IT WILL BE DRY AND WARM
AGAIN TODAY DROPPING HUMIDITIES INTO THE MID 40S. THE SALINAS AREA
REMAINS THE GREATEST CONCERN AS THIS AREA MISSED THE RAIN FROM
YESTERDAY. FIREFIGHTERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO SHIFTING WINDS TODAY BUT
OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR SIGNIFICANT LESS WIND TODAY THAN
YDAY. SIG IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED MON DUE TO COOLER WEATHER AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 72 81 72 / 30 30 50 50
STT 83 73 83 73 / 30 30 30 40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
417 AM AST SUN FEB 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLC WILL SWING EAST
ACROSS THE ATC WITH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MON NIGHT.
WEAKENING CDFNT WILL CLEAR THE AREA MON NIGHT AND DISSIPATE
QUICKLY ON TUE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY BEHIND
SHEARLINE. IT STILL APPEARS THOUGH AS LOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE DRY
AND ANY SHOWERS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST IF
ANY. NORTHEAST FLOW DEEPENS TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SHALLOW INSTABILITY INCREASE AS CDFNT APPROACHES. SHOULD SEE A
MARKED INCREASE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS AND
NORTHERN HALF OF PR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. OVERALL...CLOUDY...VERY
COOL MON AND MON EVENING AND WINDY WITH GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
MAINLY ON THE NORTH COAST.
DRYING EXPECTED LATE MON NIGHT AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND UPPER
LEVEL CONFLUENCE BECOMES ESTABLISHED AS JET STREAK PUSHES SOUTH OF AREA.
EXPECT FRONT TO WASH OUT QUICKLY DURING THE DAY TUE. GFS CONTINUES
TO SHOW REMNANT MOISTURE STICKING AROUND FOR A FEW DAYS THROUGH
WED. HOWEVER...I CONTINUE TO BE VERY SKEPTICAL OF THIS SOLUTION
DUE TO THE DEGREE OF UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND THE ECMWF SOLUTION
OF KEEPING THINGS DRY. EXPECT A DRYING TREND WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
VEERING TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WARMING TREND
EXPECTED STARTING TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS WITH NO SIG WX. CLOUDS
HOWEVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY WITH CIGS BECOMING
BKN-OVC040. WINDS 15G20KT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND CALM AT NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS AMZ710 MON
THROUGH TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATE TONIGHT AND MON
WITH 22-KT WINDS ACROSS ALL OF THE OPEN WATERS AND PASSAGES.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE WED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SOME IMPROVEMENT TODAY IN TERMS OF WINDS AS
NORTHEAST FLOW TYPICALLY RESULTS IN REDUCED SPEEDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL FRICTION AND REDUCTION FROM A SEA BREEZE
COMPONENT FROM THE SOUTH. STILL APPEARS IT WILL BE DRY AND WARM
AGAIN TODAY DROPPING HUMIDITIES INTO THE MID 40S. THE SALINAS AREA
REMAINS THE GREATEST CONCERN AS THIS AREA MISSED THE RAIN FROM
YESTERDAY. FIREFIGHTERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO SHIFTING WINDS TODAY BUT
OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR SIGNIFICANT LESS WIND TODAY THAN
YDAY. SIG IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED MON DUE TO COOLER WEATHER AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 72 81 72 / 30 30 50 50
STT 83 73 83 73 / 30 30 30 40
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145336
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
Code: Select all
Significant Feature: High pressure ridge across the northern Caribbean.
Morning: Mostly sunny.
Afternoon: Mainly fair, except for isolated showers over hilly interior areas.
Tonight: Fair.
Winds: Will reach in excess of 10 knots (12 mph)
Temperatures: High: 30C (86F) Low: 23C (73F)
Location
Sunrise
Sunset
Kingston
6:37 a.m.
6:06 p.m.
Montego Bay
6:42 a.m.
6:11 p.m.
Negril
6:43 a.m.
6:12 p.m.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145336
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
314 PM AST SUN FEB 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRIER AIR MASS CONTINUE TO
ENCOMPASS THE REGION. FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS SLOT OF
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST OVER THE FA TONIGHT. THIS DRY
WILL ALMOST WIPE OUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN SPITE OF FAIR
INSTABILITY. IN FACT PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE IN AROUND 1.0 INCH AS
INDICATED IN THE 10/12Z TJSJ SOUNDING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR
LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...
INDUCING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY
MONDAY...PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION AND
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN THE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BY MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL ALSO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AND
WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IN
AND AROUND THE LOCAL TAF SITES. AS A RESULT...MVFR CONDITIONS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN SHRA. LLVL WNDS ENE
5-20 KTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE TONIGHT DUE INCREASING WINDS.
SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER WAVES WILL HOLD OFF TIL EARLY MON IN NORTHERLY
SWELL EVEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 82 72 82 / 30 50 50 50
STT 73 84 72 83 / 30 30 40 40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
314 PM AST SUN FEB 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRIER AIR MASS CONTINUE TO
ENCOMPASS THE REGION. FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS SLOT OF
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST OVER THE FA TONIGHT. THIS DRY
WILL ALMOST WIPE OUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN SPITE OF FAIR
INSTABILITY. IN FACT PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE IN AROUND 1.0 INCH AS
INDICATED IN THE 10/12Z TJSJ SOUNDING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR
LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...
INDUCING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY
MONDAY...PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION AND
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN THE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BY MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL ALSO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AND
WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IN
AND AROUND THE LOCAL TAF SITES. AS A RESULT...MVFR CONDITIONS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN SHRA. LLVL WNDS ENE
5-20 KTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE TONIGHT DUE INCREASING WINDS.
SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER WAVES WILL HOLD OFF TIL EARLY MON IN NORTHERLY
SWELL EVEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 82 72 82 / 30 50 50 50
STT 73 84 72 83 / 30 30 40 40
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145336
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
Good morning. Weak Cold Front moving thru the NE Caribbean today with scattered showers and cooler temperatures. Drier weather is expected from Tuesday thru next weekend.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
538 AM AST MON FEB 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST...AS BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE LOCAL
AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE
TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. REMNANTS OF AN OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...WHILE CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT...INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND FAST MOVING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THIS
GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...A FEW
MORNING PASSING SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO
CANT BE RULED OUT EACH DAY. WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO EAST TO
SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WARMING TREND EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS BKN015 WITH BRIEF TEMPORARY
REDUCTION IN VSBYS ACROSS TJSJ AND TIST LATER THIS MORNING AS
WINDS INCREASE AND SHOWERS BECOME MORE FREQUENT. CIGS MAY
ACTUALLY DROP BELOW 010FT AT JSJ BUT PROB AND ANY DURATION LIKELY
TO BE TOO SHORT. ALL OTHER AIRPORTS WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS BKN040.
WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY ON TUE.
&&
.MARINE...A COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS AND BUILDING
NORTH SWELLS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH FACING COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN
U.S. VIRGIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...
WITH 7 TO 10 FOOT WAVES AND BREAKING WAVES OF 10 TO 12 FEET. AS A
RESULT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AT 1 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WHILE THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANYTHING MORE
THAN A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TODAY AT BEST...THICK CLOUDS
AND COOLER AIR SHOULD KEEP FIRE DANGER LOW TODAY. VERY DRY TUE BUT
STILL SOMEWHAT COOL WITH DIMINISHING NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD STILL
KEEP THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER LOW ON TUE. TEMPS REBOUND QUICKLY WED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING FIRE DANGER AS BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE RESULTS IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. WINDS TURN MORE
THE EAST AND EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH TIME WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS IN
ENHANCED SPEEDS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 83 73 / 70 50 20 30
STT 84 72 83 72 / 50 40 20 30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
538 AM AST MON FEB 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST...AS BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE LOCAL
AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE
TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. REMNANTS OF AN OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...WHILE CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT...INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND FAST MOVING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THIS
GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...A FEW
MORNING PASSING SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO
CANT BE RULED OUT EACH DAY. WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO EAST TO
SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WARMING TREND EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS BKN015 WITH BRIEF TEMPORARY
REDUCTION IN VSBYS ACROSS TJSJ AND TIST LATER THIS MORNING AS
WINDS INCREASE AND SHOWERS BECOME MORE FREQUENT. CIGS MAY
ACTUALLY DROP BELOW 010FT AT JSJ BUT PROB AND ANY DURATION LIKELY
TO BE TOO SHORT. ALL OTHER AIRPORTS WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS BKN040.
WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY ON TUE.
&&
.MARINE...A COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS AND BUILDING
NORTH SWELLS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH FACING COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN
U.S. VIRGIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...
WITH 7 TO 10 FOOT WAVES AND BREAKING WAVES OF 10 TO 12 FEET. AS A
RESULT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AT 1 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WHILE THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANYTHING MORE
THAN A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TODAY AT BEST...THICK CLOUDS
AND COOLER AIR SHOULD KEEP FIRE DANGER LOW TODAY. VERY DRY TUE BUT
STILL SOMEWHAT COOL WITH DIMINISHING NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD STILL
KEEP THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER LOW ON TUE. TEMPS REBOUND QUICKLY WED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING FIRE DANGER AS BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE RESULTS IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. WINDS TURN MORE
THE EAST AND EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH TIME WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS IN
ENHANCED SPEEDS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 83 73 / 70 50 20 30
STT 84 72 83 72 / 50 40 20 30
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145336
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
Febuary 11 Jamaica forecast:
Code: Select all
Significant Feature: High pressure ridge across the northern Caribbean.
Morning: Mostly sunny.
Afternoon: Mainly fair, except for isolated showers over hilly interior areas.
Tonight: Fair.
Winds: Will reach in excess of 18 knots (22 mph)
Temperatures: High: 31C (88F) Low: 23C (73F)
Location
Sunrise
Sunset
Kingston
6:36 a.m.
6:07 p.m.
Montego Bay
6:41 a.m.
6:12 p.m.
Negril
6:42 a.m.
6:13 p.m.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145336
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
January climate data for Puerto Rico/USVI.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=jan2013cr
Rainfall in January.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=jan2013cr
Rainfall in January.

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