Caribbean - Central America Weather

[arizona_sooner]

Been here in Trinidad for almost a week now... Not even a hint of rain!

Going to Tobago on Friday - hoping for a continuation of the good weather....

[cycloneye]

Dry conditions will continue to dominate the weather in the NE Caribbean and on the rest of the Eastern Caribbean.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST WED FEB 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA...WILL
SHIFT EAST NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH
THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE BEEN
AFFECTING THE LOCAL REGION DURING MOST OF THE DAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN FOCUSED MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. MOST
OF THE AREA REMAINED CLOUDY. THESE PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAVE BEEN BROUGHT BY THE TRADE WINDS. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
THEREFORE...STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...WITH THE CONTINUATION OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA.

FOR SUNDAY...REMNANT OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ALSO...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY...ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA...BRINGING
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOWS THIS
BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA...SJU-GFS COMPUTER MODEL
INDICATE PW VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW...AROUND 1.0 INCHES FOR MOST OF
THE TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND SCT SHRA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS PR THROUGH
20/21Z. AS A RESULT...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SHRA. LLVL WINDS WILL RANGE BTWN
10-20 KTS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOY SHOWS SEAS OF 7 FEET AT 13 SECONDS. THIS WILL
CREATE BREAKING WAVE BETWEEN 10 TO 13 FEET. HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM AST. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONTINUES N EFFECT ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 74 84 / 30 30 30 30
STT 74 84 74 85 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. No big changes are expected from the mainly dry conditions for Puerto Rico.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
509 AM AST THU FEB 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA...WILL
MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVED INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...BUT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS LEFT ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE
WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THEN IN THE AFTERNOON
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PUERTO RICO AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE EASTERLY AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ACROSS THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...OVERNIGHT PASSING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY WHERE A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH THE AREA...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND OVERALL SHOWER ACTIVITY. THEREAFTER...SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND REMAIN ISOLATED
AND LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FLOW HAS BECOME EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE USVI. SHRA...MTN OBSCURATIONS AND MVFR CONDS ARE NOTED IN
SOUTHEAST PR AND LIKELY TO CONT THRU AT LEAST 21/12Z. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE DURING THE DAY WILL BRING LCL MVFR TO WRN PR AFT
21/17Z...DUE TO CIGS. EXPECT CLRG FROM E-W AFT 21/21Z. LLVL WIND
FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY AFT 21/21Z 10-20KT.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM TODAY. SWELLS ARE SUBSIDING AND THE
LOCAL BUOYS ARE SHOWING THE DECREASE IN SEA HEIGHTS.
HOWEVER...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP TO 6 FEET BEFORE SEAS
INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 84 74 / 40 30 30 20
STT 85 73 85 73 / 40 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

Febuary 21 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: High pressure ridge over the northern Caribbean.

Morning: Windy and sunny.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy and windy with brief showers over hilly interior areas.

Tonight:  Fair and windy.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88)     Low: 24C (75F)


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST THU FEB 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...WEAKENING POLAR TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES
THEN SPREAD EASTWARDS INTO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AT LOW LEVELS...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LOOSEN LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS DISSIPATING COLD FRONT LIFTS FURTHER NORTHWARDS
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
SUGGESTS A SLOT OF DRIER AIR HAS MOVED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
LATE HOURS OF THE MORNING WITH PREVAILING WINDS NOW CONTINUE FROM
THE FROM THE EAST.ONLY SMALL STREAMERS OF SHALLOW CONVECTION WAS NOTED
SO FAR ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY EXPECT LOCAL
SEA BREEZES AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO STREAM ACROSS THE LEE SIDE OF SOME OF THE ISLANDS TODAY.

BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT
WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...THE TIGHTENING
OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ONCE AGAIN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE AREA...WILL INCREASE THE EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION. AS A RESULT ANY CLUSTERS OF SHALLOW MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED
SHOWERS PICKED UP BY THE PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADES... SHOULD QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING
THE EVENINGS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WEATHER SCENARIO WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES DURING
THE DAYTIME ACROSS THE ISLANDS. A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS DUE TO RESIDUAL POCKETS OF MOISTURE
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VERY BRIEF
MVFR CONDS AND MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
TJMZ AND TJBQ AT LEAST TIL 21/21Z. L/LVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 KT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT... BACKING TO
THE EAST-NORTHEAST AFT 22/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE CONTINUED SUBSIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY.
BUOY 41043 NOW SHOWED STEADY DECLINE OF SEAS NOW NEAR 7 FEET WITH
DOMINANT SWELL DIRECTION NOW ENE. THEREFORE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL ONLY REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR AT LEAST UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING FOR
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. THEREAFTER SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGIONAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A WEAK PULSE OF LONG PERIOD NNW SHOULD ARRIVE TO THE LOCAL WATERS
LATE SATURDAY...THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LARGER NORTHERLY SWELL LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 73 83 / 30 30 20 20
STT 73 84 73 84 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST FRI FEB 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL SPREAD INTO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC TODAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
IN ADDITION...REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES CLEARED UP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND
ONLY ISOLATED PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH A
NORTHEAST FLOW MAY BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO
THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO WHILE ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WITH A NORTHEAST WIND.
THEREAFTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UNDER ONE INCH. BY TUESDAY
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AND SO DOES THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ENE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS GUSTING TO JUST
OVER 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND ONLY LIGHT PASSING ISOLD
SHOWERS. INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PR MAY CAUSE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AS WELL AS
SOME SCT SHRA ACROSS TJMZ.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS OF UP TO 6
FEET AND WINDS OF OVER 18 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW. A
WEAK PULSE OF LONG PERIOD NNW SWELLS SHOULD ARRIVE TO THE LOCAL
WATERS LATE SATURDAY...THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LARGER NORTHERLY
SWELL LATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THESE
SWELLS MAY CAUSE THE LOCAL SEAS TO REACH SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 83 73 / 20 20 20 40
STT 84 72 84 71 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

Febuary 22 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: High pressure ridge over the northern Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy and windy with brief showers over hilly interior areas.

Tonight:  Fair and windy.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88)     Low: 24C (75F)


[SaskatchewanScreamer]

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST FRI FEB 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS A MID TO
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN DOMINATES THE
LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STABLE...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WHEN REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO MOVE CLOSE TO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS AND A MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL ON THE LOW SIDE. MOST SHOWERS WILL
BE DRIVEN BY OROGRAPHIC FORCING OVER LEEWARD SLOPES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST
COAST OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...SOME ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN USVI WITH MOSTLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
AFTERWARDS...AS THE WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST STRENGTHEN...EXPECTING
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BUT IT IS TO ALSO RESULT IN MOSTLY LIGHT
TO TRACE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BRIEF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS XPTD NXT 24 HRS. WNDS LGT E BLO FL150 AT 10
-15 KTS BCMG FM N AND INCR W/HT ABV WITH MAX WND AT 50 KTS NR
FL450.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SERIES OF
PULSES OF N TO NNE SWELLS WILL INVADE THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA...THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE...
CREATING CHOPPING MARINE CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 73 83 / 20 20 40 30
STT 72 84 71 84 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather in general is expected this weekend in the NE Caribbean today with some showers on Sunday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST SAT FEB 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN WITH SEVERAL RIDGES PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES
THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. A STRONG LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL DIG
INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY THIS WEEKEND AND
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL FORM NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
PUSH A WEAK SHEARLINE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC PULLING THE
EAST-WEST RIDGE LINE INTO THE LOCAL AREA BY FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND A FEW HAVE MOVED ONSHORE OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS.
LAND BREEZES HAVE DOMINATED THE FLOW EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF A SHEARLINE THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
ON SUNDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE NORTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND A SOME SHOWERS TO THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRIER AIR AND SOME GUSTY WINDS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL
MOISTURE RETURNS MID WEEK. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SLACKEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
BRINGING THE RIDGE LINE OF THE MID ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL SURFACE WINDS
LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD USHER IN A SUNNY WEEKEND WITH WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON THE FOLLOWING MONDAY...HOWEVER...THE
MODEL PULLS MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THAT WOULD BRING AT
LEAST SOME CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS TO THE AREA IN
WITH SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
A STRONG DIGGING LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN OVER NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO MAKE MORE
DEFINITIVE STATEMENTS ABOUT POSSIBLE RAINFALL.



.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM
THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 10-20 KT RANGE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. VCSH
EXPECTED OVER TKPK...TNCM...TIST....AND TISX.

&&

.MARINE...INCREASING SWELL FROM THE NORTH WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT
AND PEAK ON SUNDAY...A SECOND SWELL SET FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST WILL
BEGIN ON MONDAY AND PEAK LATE MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND A SHEARLINE
EXPECTED TO PASS SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE AREA. CONDITIONS MOST
FAVORABLE TO FIRE WEATHER WILL BE EXPERIENCED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A
GENERAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 83 73 / 10 30 30 20
STT 83 73 82 72 / 10 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Febuary 23 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: High pressure ridge over the northern Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy and windy with brief showers over hilly interior areas.

Tonight:  Fair and windy.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88)     Low: 24C (75F)


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
315 PM AST SAT FEB 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THIS WILL SUSTAIN SUBSIDENCE PATTERN
ACROSS MOST GREATER ANTILLES...INCLUDING PR AND USVI. ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY MORNING WHEN REMNANTS OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOOPS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. WV IMAGERY ALSO SUGGEST A VERY DRY AIR MASS AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE FROM 500MB TO 250MB ATMOSPHERE. LATEST
TJSJ SOUNDING AS WELL AS AMDAR/MDCRS AVIATION DATA INDICATE A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND 800MB...WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO STABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND USVI TODAY. THERE ARE
ALSO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS USVI AND PUERTO
RICO BASED ON THE SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO FORECAST LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL OF DAYS.
HOWEVER...SOME ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO AS
WELL AS THE NORTHERN VI WITH MOSTLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. OVERALL...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS FORESEEN IN NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS PREVAILED ACROSS THE FLYING AREA. LLVL WINDS
WILL REMAIN FM NE AT 15-20 KTS. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...A NORTH SWELL WILL INVADE THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
ANEGADA PASSAGE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND PEAKING ON SUNDAY. A
LARGER NNE SWELL WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY. THE NNE SWELL MAY CAUSE THE LOCAL SEAS TO REACH
HIGH SURF CRITERIA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 73 83 / 30 30 20 20
STT 73 84 72 85 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few light showers will move thru Puerto Rico today as a weak front moves over the island but mainly dry conditions will prevail for the next few days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
522 AM AST SUN FEB 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT
EAST AS DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A THIN LINE OF CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS HAS BEEN
APPROACHING THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS BAND OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE AREA TODAY. THEREFORE...A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY.
HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS FEATURE.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA...IS MAINTAINING RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TODAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE DAY...SINCE THIS BOUNDARY IS
VERY WEAK AND DON`T BRING TOO MUCH WITH IT. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO
TIME. IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT FOR VERY BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT
TNCM BEFORE 24/15Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AT 10-20 KT FOR MOST OF THE DAY. A WEAK BOUNDARY
MOVING ONSHORE AT NE PR AND TIST AT 24/09Z WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS BRINGING BRIEF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND SHRA. CONDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONT THRU 25/08Z.


&&

.MARINE... NORTH SWELL WILL INVADE THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
ANEGADA PASSAGE BEGINNING TONIGHT AND PEAKING TOMORROW. A
LARGER NNE SWELL WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THE NNE SWELL MAY CAUSE THE LOCAL SEAS TO REACH HIGH SURF
CRITERIA EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 83 74 / 30 20 20 20
STT 84 73 85 73 / 30 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

February 24 2013
 
Significant Feature: High pressure ridge over the northern Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy and windy with brief showers over hilly interior areas.

Tonight:  Fair and windy.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88)     Low: 24C (75F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:30 a.m.
 6:12 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:35 a.m.
 6:17 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:36 a.m.
 6:18 p.m.
 
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST SUN FEB 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LINES OF INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSING THE AREA TODAY...BROUGHT SOME
CLOUDINESS AND BRIEF SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE ISLANDS MAINLY DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREAFTER RAPID CLEARING AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WAS OBSERVED DURING THE REST OF THE DAY WITH LIMITED
SHOWER ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION
IS EXPECTED TO TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND
THUS MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADE WINDS AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. OVERALL
DRY AIR AND MILD SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF AND
LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT/SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE PREVAILING TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
FRAGMENTS OF SHALLOW MOISTURE FROM THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE DAY. THEREFORE EXPECT THE A FEW
SHOWERS TO PROPAGATE ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS FROM TIME TO TIME ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER OVERALL FAIR WEATHER SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL TROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BY THE LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK A SURGE OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING AND
DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS HOWEVER STILL NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SO FAR MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH THE REGION WOULD
BE DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH...BUT THIS IS STILL SOME WAY OUT
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE HOW THIS UNFOLD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT FOR VERY BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT
TJBQ BTWN 24/18Z AND 24/21Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 KT UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE WEAK
LINE OF INSTABILITY THAT IS BRINGING INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND -SHRA
WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL
GENERATE A LONG PERIOD NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELLS OF 7 TO 8 FEET AT
13 TO 15 SECONDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THESE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
RESULT IN LARGE BREAKING WAVES BETWEEN 9 AND 13 FEET. AS A RESULT...
ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH
TO NORTHEAST FACING COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND THE
NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL
THEREFORE BE IN EFFECT DURING THAT TIME. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL ALSO BE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATER. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGES AND COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 73 83 / 20 20 20 20
STT 73 83 73 85 / 20 20 20 20

[Macrocane]

If this verifies for next Sunday I just can say...wow

[Macrocane]

An update with the observations from the cold surge that brought the coldest temperatures in a year in Panama: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=2300599#p2300599

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A mainly dry week ahead for the NE Caribbean islands.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST MON FEB 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP LAYERED RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO
TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THUS MAINTAIN
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. OVERALL DRY AIR AND
MILD SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF AND LIMIT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT/SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO...WITH VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY OBSERVED ELSEWHERE.
IN GENERAL...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA NEXT FEW DAYS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.
LATEST SJU-GFS LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED
VALUES BELOW 1.0 INCHES FOR MOST PART OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...AS DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. IN THE LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT FOR VERY BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT
TJBQ BTWN 25/18Z AND 25/21Z. TJSJ 25/00Z INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND
FLOW UP TO 20 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 20K
FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...NE SWELLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND PEAK EARLY TUESDAY WITH DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ALONG NORTH FACING COASTLINES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 74 84 74 / 10 0 10 0
STT 83 74 85 74 / 10 0 10 0

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

February 25 2013
 
Significant Feature: High pressure ridge over the northern Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Generally fair and windy with brief showers over hilly interior areas.

Tonight:  Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90)     Low: 24C (75F)
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST MON FEB 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WHICH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN BEGIN TO ERODE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
EXITS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REINFORCED BY THE MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINED A FAIRLY DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR MASS ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. LITTLE OR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULIFORM CLOUDS
NOTED QUICKLY MOVING WEST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF
THE ISLANDS. LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ALSO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDINESS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...AS WELL AS ON THE LEE SIDE OF SOME OF THE ISLANDS. SO FAR
NO PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OR REPORTED OVER LAND.

LIMITED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BRING SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH FEW PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE PRESENT WEATHER SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK. BASED ON OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN AND THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
INDUCE A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP INVERSION AT LEAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 25/21Z.
EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST DATA FROM BUOY 41043...41044 AND BUOY 41053 ALL
INDICATED WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING BETWEEN 7 AND 12 FEET WITH PERIODS
BETWEEN 12 TO 16 SECONDS ASSOCIATED WITH NNE SWELL. THIS PULSE OF
NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS IS EXPECTED TO PEAK EARLY TUESDAY WHILE SPREADING
INTO THE LOCAL PASSAGES AND PARTS OF THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS.
AS A RESULT...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT AT LEAST UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST MARINE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
SAN JUAN FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 73 83 / 20 20 0 0
STT 73 84 74 85 / 20 20 0 0