Expert forecasts for 2013 N Atlantic season

[psyclone]

So were are your season numbers or predictions 57 ? :0)

I'm thinking 15-18 NS, 6-8 H and 3-4 IH. Neutral ENSO. Weaker Bermuda High. Pressures closer to normal in the MDR/Caribbean/Gulf. Warmer SSTs in the MDR. Less low-level wind shear in the Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. Less dry/sinking air (more instability). Negative NAO may turn systems northward that track north of the Caribbean vs. into the East Coast. Decreased threat of an East Coast hurricane impact (vs. normal). Significantly higher risk of a hurricane striking the eastern Caribbean this year vs. 2012. Higher risk of a major hurricane in the Gulf (than 2012).

Yikes. that is a spicy early hunch.

[cycloneye]

Joe Bastardi's December outlook is posted at the first post list. (Between 13-17 named storms) Let''s see when he will release his next outlook.

[Blown Away]

Joe Bastardi's December outlook is posted at the first post list. (Between 13-17 named storms) Let''s see when he will release his next outlook.

Graphic for JB's December outlook.

[gatorcane]

I am no expert, but with neutral conditions expected and above normal SSTs a good possibility across the Atlantic basin and MDR, I am leaning towards an active season also with more major hurricanes due do less sinking and stable air than we saw last year.

[cycloneye]

A preview of what Dr Phil Klotzbach / Dr Willam Gray will have on the April 10th forecast is posted at the first post. It looks like we may have to fasten our seatbelts.

See first post list

[Riptide]

Supposedly Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach will be at the National Hurricane Conference in New Orleans and will release their forecast today, according to the website schedule.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I'm not going to directly post Joe Bastardi's forecast because as far as I'm aware it's not legal if you haven't paid for the site. I'll summarize instead:

- The season is going to be bad. You can infer his opinion of that by just reading the title, "Welcome to my nightmare-the 2013 hurricane season"

- His updated forecast is for 16 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.

- ACE index of 165

- Many hits along the East Coast. He states the major hurricane landfall drought is LIKELY to come to end this year, and the USA may actually be hit by several majors.

- Pattern is comparable to 2005 and the 1950s.

[cycloneye]

I added the JB forecast to the first post list. I put the Weatherbell link if anyone wants to register there.

[cycloneye]

Impact Weather late March forecast is up at first post list

[wxman57]

Supposedly Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach will be at the National Hurricane Conference in New Orleans and will release their forecast today, according to the website schedule.

I'm at the NHC in New Orleans. Missed Dr. Gray's talk but I don't think there was any new forecast. Phil Klotzbach is still in Sydney, and the next forecast update is set for April. Phil wants to get all the March data before the update is released. Dr. Gray most likely discussed the global warming issue and recent activity and possibly re-hashed the December outlook.

Did anyone here hear his talk? I know Mark Sudduth is attending.

P.S. Just checked online and he said the new forecast comes out April 10th. Nothing new today in his talk.

[cycloneye]

The experts list at first post continues to grow as CrownWeather is up.

[SFLcane]

A preview of what Dr Phil Klotzbach / Dr Willam Gray will have on the April 10th forecast is posted at the first post. It looks like we may have to fasten our seatbelts.

See first post list

These aggressive outlooks dont always translate into many US landfalls as we saw last year with 19 tropical systems developing and only sandy and few weak tropical storms impacted the united states. Not down playing sandy's impacts in the northeast by any means but just trying to stress not to get to worked up in seasonal numbers predicted. All you can do is be prepared the same way you do every year and mother nature will take care of the rest.

[ninel conde]

joe bastardi has posted his forecast for free on weatherbell. here is the link.

http://www.weatherbell.com/2013-Hurrica ... n-Forecast. a mod can move it to the first page if needed. sounds ominous as his top 5 seasons are 2004, 2005m 1969, 1964 and 2010.

[cycloneye]

joe bastardi has posted his forecast for free on weatherbell. here is the link.

http://www.weatherbell.com/2013-Hurrica ... n-Forecast. a mod can move it to the first page if needed. sounds ominous as his top 5 seasons are 2004, 2005m 1969, 1964 and 2010.

Thank you for posting the link. Added to the first post list

[Hurricaneman]

If you go by what the experts are saying, anywhere between Beaumont to Cape Hatteras need to keep a close eye on how things progress, especially with 2005 being a main analog for most of the experts the gulf states could be in the bullseye

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

JB has the 400 mb chart of the top ACE years at that level but at 500 mbs it looks even more omminous. Here is that 500mb chart with the analog years at the bottom.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

March 2013:



March 2005, which is definitely the best analogue for this season at this point:



A warm mid-level focuses lift, encourages convection, [through a long process, and generally speaking] lowers wind shear, and increases vertical instability. Definitely a plus for the season.

Just to send the point home, March 2012:

[wxman57]

Just saw JB's outlook. Twelve hurricanes and four tropical storms seems odd, as we'd typically see about half of the named storms as hurricanes and half as tropical storms. If we see 12 hurricanes then statistically we'd see over 20 named storms, not that I'd forecast 12 hurricanes at this point. He's still harping on the east coast threat, which certainly proved true back in the 1950s with a similar pattern. However, the east U.S. trof has been stuck for months. If it stays there for much of the season then it may help to steer storms northward before they reach the East Coast. Of course, all it takes is for the trof to weaken for a few days at the right (or wrong) time and the East Coast is vulnerable.

I do see that all the seasonal indicators favor development this year. The one factor that still bugs me is that instability remains below normal across the Atlantic Basin. I'd think that as we move toward summer and the Bermuda High weakens as forecast that the instability would creep upward to normal or above. If that happens, then we may be in for a wild ride this year. Caribbean islands, particularly the eastern Caribbean, would be at much higher risk of a major impact vs. 2012.

[Hurricaneman]

With the 500 and 400mb pattern, expect the instability to go up really fast to above normal between May 1st to June 1st which is what many of the huge landfalling seasons have done and don't be suprised if 2013 has a similar track spray to 2005 in which if it formed in the MDR it would recurve into the open atlantic, but if a disturbance makes it to or past 65W it could spell trouble for
Florida and the GOM if the pattern holds

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[HURRICANELONNY]

I have to put my 2 cents in. As most of us know the pro's failed miserably in 2012. The factors change so fast it's hard to get a grip on what's happening in the tropics pertaining to Hurricane season. For sure and most models showed El Nino forming last year and it didn't. I don't know if El nino will form this year or if shear or SAL will have an influence. I guess any guess is good this early.