EPAC: BARBARA - Remnants

[CrazyC83]

Dvorak tends to under-estimate storms that appear to be RI'ing anyway. Any plans to send recon?

[cycloneye]

Dvorak tends to under-estimate storms that appear to be RI'ing anyway. Any plans to send recon?

There is anything on the plan of the day.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

[greenkat]

RI could very well happen if Barbara keeps drifting around. Definitely something to keep an eye on. (pun not intended )

[SouthDadeFish]

Nice curved band and a developing inner core:

[TheStormExpert]

The stronger Barbara becomes prior to landfall in Central America, the more likely Barbara will be able to redevelop once she enters the BOC. This in my opinion is going to be an interesting storm to follow!

[HURAKAN]

The radar from Puerto Angel is finally working again!

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/index.php?option= ... &Itemid=84

[SouthDadeFish]

Very cold cloud tops continue to appear on conventional IR imagery. The image below shows some tops <-80C:

[Kingarabian]

I really doubted that this was a 45mph storm 2 hours ago. Now I'm 100% certain. She looks like she's ready to blow.

[Cyclenall]

I really doubted that this was a 45mph storm 2 hours ago. Now I'm 100% certain. She looks like she's ready to blow.

Yeah, this Barbara looks amazingly well organized to just be assigned TS status hours ago. When I first saw an image after being busy with other weather events, I thought it looked to be nearly a hurricane. It has a nice shape, fantastic spiral banding, and inner core formation.

The NHC did acknowledge that Barb had an eye starting up but still gave it only 40 knots. I've never seen this happen. I wouldn't be surprised if it was actually 60 knots right now. The last Barbara looked similar to this and had a look akin to this one and it just fell apart when I was expecting big things from it.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
200 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO INDICATE
THAT THE STRUCTURE OF BARBARA HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT. THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN THE MIDDLE OF A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...COMPRISED OF COLD-TOPPED DEEP CONVECTION.
BANDING HAS INCREASED...WITH THE MOST PROMINENT BAND WRAPPING
ALMOST ENTIRELY AROUND THE CIRCULATION. MORE RECENTLY...A PARTIAL
EYEWALL HAS BEEN NOTED IN RADAR IMAGERY...WITH THE EYEWALL BECOMING
INCREASINGLY BETTER DEFINED. DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE 3.0 FROM TAFB
AND 3.5 FROM SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS THEREFORE BEEN
RAISED TO 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 035/04. BARBARA HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SHOULD DRAW THE CYCLONE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE TO THE
COAST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. AFTER
CROSSING THE COAST...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR WEST
OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BEFORE DISSIPATING...WITH AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF THE REMNANTS ENTERING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO
THE GFS AND MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

SHEAR ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS MODEL SHOW ONLY LIGHT SHEAR
OVER BARBARA AS IT MOVES SLOWLY OVER VERY WARM SSTS AROUND 30C.
THESE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. IN ADDITION...AN EARLIER SSMI/S PASS
SHOWED A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL RING OF CONVECTION...POSSIBLY A HARBINGER
OF A RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE ABOUT TO OCCUR. THE LACK OF TIME
OVER WATER IS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS INCREASED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...AND IS
CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE AND WELL AS THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS AIDS.

ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
BARBARA COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. FOR THIS
REASON...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
A PORTION OF THE COAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM...AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN IN AND NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 14.8N 95.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 15.7N 95.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 17.0N 94.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/1800Z 18.0N 94.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

[cycloneye]

Folks,look at this radar from Puerto Angel.

[LSU2001]

Well Luis,
Based on that radar it sure looks like Barbara is approaching hurricane status. The eyewall seems to be pretty well formed and the sat. pics show a rapidly developing system.
I just wonder if it can hold together enough to get into the BOC and redevelop?
Tim

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
325 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF MEXICO...

AT 325 AM PDT...1025 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO BARRA DE TONALA.

A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE TO FORECAST
BARBARA TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

SUMMARY OF 0325 AM PDT...1025 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 95.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH/LANDSEA

[cycloneye]

Special Advisory

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
500 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

...BARBARA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 95.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM PUERTO
ANGEL TO BARRA DE TONALA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO ANGEL TO BARRA DE TONALA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE TONALA TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS IN LIEU OF THE SCHEDULED 500 AM PDT
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.

AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST. BARBARA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND A NORTHEAST
TO NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF BARBARA WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY...AND MOVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BARBARA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER
THE CENTER MOVES INLAND...AND BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EASTERN OAXACA AND WESTERN CHIAPAS MEXICO...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN
OAXACA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS MORNING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 3 TO 5 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



TROPICAL STORM BARBARA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
500 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

RECENT RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO INDICATE THAT BARBARA HAS
BEEN TRYING TO FORM AN EYE...AND HAS APPARENTLY INTENSIFIED. BASED
UPON THE CURRENT TRENDS...A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS WARRANTED TO
INCREASE THE INTENSITY FORECAST OF BARBARA TO INDICATE HURRICANE
STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. BASED ON RECENT CENTER FIXES...THERE
HAS BEEN A SLIGHT EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST
TRACK. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS ISSUED IN LIEU OF THE 1200 UTC
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1200Z 15.2N 95.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 15.7N 94.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 17.0N 94.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/1800Z 18.0N 94.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA

[Yellow Evan]

Not looking good for MX.

[tolakram]

12:45Z

[CrazyC83]

Looks like a hurricane to me...I would say 65 kt, although I doubt the NHC would put it at that without clear proof (i.e. 4.0 Dvorak or surface obs).

[CrazyC83]

Speaking of which:

29/1145 UTC 15.0N 94.9W T4.0/4.0 BARBARA -- East Pacific

[SouthDadeFish]

Beautiful structure. This TRMM pass also shows the low-level ring feature:



Also, the 85 PCT shows a closed eyewall:

[Macrocane]

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.





Sure it is a hurricane right now, probably we will see "Hurricane Barbara" in the next advisory. It is already causing heavy rains in Mexico and Central America.