ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical

[Weatherboy1]

As I kind of expected and discussed yesterday, I think this system will gradually tighten up and we will eventually have a typical June "naked swirl/displaced convection and strongest winds" type storm. I don't think anything major ... maybe tops out at 40-50 mph wind TS ... but I do think we will likely get some kind of disorganized (but at least numbered) system that ultimately makes landfall somewhere N and W of Tampa in FL. My best semi-educated guess-cast based on the trends I'm seeing. Either way, it's going to continue to be a wet pattern here in SoFL!

[adam0983]

How much rainfall can we expect in Palm Beach, Broward and Dade County? It looks like invest 91L is slowly getting better organized.

[ROCK]

mid level shear or shear in general is giving 91 a beat down right now...hard to stack or intensify at all when your convection is displaced oh about a 100 miles or so....

[N2Storms]

[quote="ROCK"]mid level shear or shear in general is giving 91 a beat down right now...hard to stack or intensify at all when your convection is displaced oh about a 100 miles or so.... [/quote]



That, and it looks like a ton of dry air on the Western side are going to work in tandem to suppress 91L

[cycloneye]

Aric, you agree with me that it appears there may be some sort of COC relocation occurring in 91L? Sat images shows the older LLC beginning to be become more broad and less defined while a new circulation may be trying to take shape closer to the main bulk of convection.

[JonathanBelles]

Plenty of channeled wind, but it's all straight line at this point.

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND
LOCATED WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO..BEFORE THE LOW INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE..40 PERCENT..OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA..CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AS WELL
AS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

ELSEWHERE..TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER TERRY

[weatherwindow]

That LLC is far seperated from the rest of 91L. Looks like the invest spit it out. I wouldn't be surprised to see a new LLC form today in the convection ball west of Cozumel.

The talk around the nws/kw office has focused on that area as the best target for formation/reformation of coc as shear falls. Follow bouy 42056 mslp and press tendency Cancun radar and satellite for confirmation. Chances improve after midnite tonite as shortwave moves weakens and moves north and east. Nothing official here just conversational supposition

[psyclone]

I must admit I'm a bit surprised the NHC keeps notching up development chances. Were I a betting man I would have bet the opposite...and lost.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

This is the position where a new LLC may be forming.

AL, 91, 2013060418, , BEST, 0, 233N, 888W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 013.invest

[wxman57]

I must admit I'm a bit surprised the NHC keeps notching up development chances. Were I a betting man I would have bet the opposite...and lost.

Remember, all we are seeing is the NHC's 48hr assessment, not beyond 48 hrs. That comes later this year. Their real probabilities could have been, say, 20% yesterday out to 48 hrs and 60% between 48 and 120 hrs. Development chances "within 48 hrs" are necessarily rising because the expected development window is now moving to within 48 hrs (Thursday).

That said, I don't see much evidence of organization. Low-level swirl is dissipating now. Will be a short window of opportunity to develop a tight LLC by tomorrow/Thursday. New GFS has weaker low. Euro coming in now.

[GCANE]

Mid-level moisture is picking up, especially east of 88W

10 knots of mid-level winds are blowing out of the convection into the dry air.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html


Should continue to fill in over the next 12 hrs according to RAP.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... 500_MB.png


Chances are looking a little better.

[cycloneye]

Maybe a small window of somewhat less shear.

[Evil Jeremy]

IMO the new best track is close to where the center seems to be relocating to, but still a bit west. I see something brewing around 23.1N and 87.5W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, you agree with me that it appears there may be some sort of COC relocation occurring in 91L? Sat images shows the older LLC beginning to be become more broad and less defined while a new circulation may be trying to take shape closer to the main bulk of convection.

yeah thats what wxman and myself mentioned earlier was happening.

[FSTPro]

The surface rotations seems to be really struggling as it slides westward.
The water vapor is trying to shift north, but is having a heck of a time shifting west.
Let's see if the dry air retreats. She trying.




FSTPro

http://www.fantasystormtracker.com

[SeminoleWind]

Remember, all we are seeing is the NHC's 48hr assessment, not beyond 48 hrs. That comes later this year. Their real probabilities could have been, say, 20% yesterday out to 48 hrs and 60% between 48 and 120 hrs. Development chances "within 48 hrs" are necessarily rising because the expected development window is now moving to within 48 hrs (Thursday).

Thanks for that, that actually put the NHC reasoning's into perspective sir.

[Dean4Storms]

The broad center remains near 89W24N none of the models I've seen develop any LLC/Low out east in the convection. The 12Z ECM puts the Low in 24hrs at 25N/90W and just about all the guidance shows most of the weather well east of the Low. I think we're seeing exactly what we will see with this sheared system, maybe some convection tomorrow closer to the overall center.

[GCANE]

I think we will see some good convection start to fire off around this tonight as the upper atmosphere cools.

Already showing LI of -5 and CAPE of 2000 to the west of the circulation - a nice setup.


http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... 000_MB.png

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png

[robbielyn]

personally I think the dry air is hurting her more than the shear. although with that fanning out shear hurting it pretty badly as well. its a shame. I was hoping our first storm would be a decent looking ts without it looking all lopsided and all blobby. its been a long time that a storm quickly got its act together and formed a pretty looking storm. seems theres a lot of struggle to get these systems to come together. I realize climatologically speaking this is par for the course this time of year. Jst sayin.