Global model runs discussion

[wxman57]

Still no support for development in the Caribbean from the ECMWF.

Euro ensembles have a 40% development chance western Caribbean to BoC in about 10 days.

[tolakram]

what's the best site for to get the updated models, i've just been waiting for people to post the links which is a pain.

I prefer this site for ease of use, but not quickest to update: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

You can look at older model runs and various output graphics using the drop downs.

[South Texas Storms]

what's the best site for to get the updated models, i've just been waiting for people to post the links which is a pain.

I prefer this site for ease of use, but not quickest to update: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

You can look at older model runs and various output graphics using the drop downs.

This is a good model site too: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[catskillfire51]

The 12z GFS at 90hrs off the south jersey coast is the same thing the CMC was showing

[Riptide]

The 12z GFS at 90hrs off the south jersey coast is the same thing the CMC was showing

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/12/gfs_nam ... _thick.gif

I think it shows up here at 126 hours out in the Western Atlantic.

[wxman57]

The 12z GFS at 90hrs off the south jersey coast is the same thing the CMC was showing

Euro has it, too. Looks like a non-tropical low that tracks across the Ohio Valley then off the east coast and out across the Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

Upgrade to ECMWF on June 25

Let's see if the model gets better after this upgrade.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/changes/ifs_cycle_38r2/

IFS cycle 38r2 introduces higher vertical resolution in the high-resolution (T1279) forecast and data assimilation of the operational runs at 00 and 12 UTC (HRES) as well as the 06 and 18 UTC cycles of the Boundary Conditions (BC) optional programme. The number of model levels increases from the current 91 levels (L91) to 137 levels (L137).

There is no change in the vertical extent of the model, i.e. the model top remains unchanged at 0.01 hPa. Also the pressure levels remain unchanged.

The vertical resolution of the ensemble (ENS) and seasonal (SEAS) forecasts remain unchanged at L62 and L91, respectively.

The date of implementation is Tuesday 25 June 2013.

[JonathanBelles]

interesting. The best of the best gets an upgrade. I wish the GFS would get one soon.

[ROCK]

OT- but 92L (left of it) made landfall today in SOFLO.......

[NDG]

GFS is back on with development in the western Caribbean and BOC on its last two runs.
0z Euro also shows development, tracks the low towards Brownsville. Shows weaker ridging along the Gulf Coast than the GFS.

[Steve H.]

Interesting bit of tumbleweed increasing in amplitude just past 40W in the central atlantic. Just mention it for kix. Get the feeling we'll be getting busy in the next few weeks. Don't believe anything is shown in the models.

[Rgv20]

Brownsville NWS morning discussion with regards to possible tropical trouble in the BOC.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...THE THEME OF THE LONG
TERM HAS NOT CHANGED. A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL ELONGATE
EAST OVER NORTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LEAVING A
WEAKNESS UNDERNEATH IT OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RGV...AND THE WEST GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
GENERAL AGREEMENT. THE RIDGE WILL RECENTER OVER EAST TEXAS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST A BIT NEXT WEEK. IN
THE MEAN TIME...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL GENERATE
MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS LOCALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
GULF...AND A DAILY MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN. TEMPS WILL RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SHOWERS MAY OCCASIONALLY MOVE INTO THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS OR LOWER VALLEY FROM OVER THE GULF...OR DEVELOP
ALONG A SEA BREEZE. AS THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND
BRING PLENTIFUL RAINFALL TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND PRESSURE FALLS
TO THE SOUTHWEST GULF AS IT MOVES WEST. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROPICAL
FEATURE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OR BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
TO END OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A WEAK CIRCULATION
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE CWA NEXT THURSDAY...OR DAY 10. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...THIS IS AT THE END OF THE MODEL RUN AND STILL SUBJECT TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY.



In my opinion I think the forecast models may be too quick on developing something down there as the main push of the MJO is forecast for the last week of June and early July. Plenty of time to keep an eye tho



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[Alyono]

isnt the research questionable if the MJO affects the Atlantic? Besides, isn't it a tropical wave feature that wouldnt really affect the GOM since it is farther north.

12Z GFS doesnt really develop anything as the system never really emerges into the BOC. GFS keeps it buried in Mexico

[Alyono]

0Z EC ensemble still favored the EPAC vs the GOM

[cycloneye]

The Global Hazard update has TC formation area marked in Western Caribbean.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /ghazards/

[Alyono]

12Z EC now only has a very weak low... no TC in the GOM. It dropped it.

More likely than not, nothing will be forming in the GOM through the next 10 to 15 days

[wxman57]

isnt the research questionable if the MJO affects the Atlantic? Besides, isn't it a tropical wave feature that wouldn't really affect the GOM since it is farther north.

12Z GFS doesn't really develop anything as the system never really emerges into the BOC. GFS keeps it buried in Mexico

No, I do not believe that the research is questionable. See my MJO page I made quite a few years ago. Research indicates that there tends to be a sharp increase in TC development in the Gulf and/or Caribbean about 2 weeks after the MJO reaches the East Pacific:

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/mjo/

00Z Euro ensembles still forecast a 30-40% chance of development in the SW Gulf next week. 12Z not in yet.

[Ntxw]

I would advise not using the MJO at this time for tropical development. It is extremely weak (no defined wave at all) and scattered at best. Anything that spins up is just in areas of enhanced convection and no true MJO induced monsoonal troughs. -AAM is not conducive to the progression of the MJO and will likely keep it weak for awhile.

[Alyono]

12Z EC ensemble has dropped the chance of development to 20 to 30 percent. Looks to be 70 to 80 percent for the EPAC, however

[cycloneye]

The new Supercomputer WCOSS will be tested in the next few weeks.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification ... nsuite.htm

Subject: NCEP Production Suite Operational on WCOSS Effective

July 16, 2013, with Live Testing June 25 and

July 2



Effective Tuesday July 16, 2013, with the 1200 Universal

Coordinated Time (UTC) cycle, the National Centers for

Environmental Prediction (NCEP) will transition the NCEP

Production Suite to the new Weather and Climate Operational

Supercomputing System (WCOSS). All models and applications in

the NCEP Production Suite will be run on the WCOSS and

disseminated from those systems.