ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[dexterlabio]

LOL @ this El Nino scare. It came from the Euro and as we all know, it has encountered issues on inconsistent and not-so-accurate forecasts for the past year or two. But man, IF it were to happen, this is like 2006 all over again.

[Ntxw]

Is there anyway to check to see how consistent the ECMWF and the CFS models have been, in predicting past ENSO episodes?

CFSv2 is the main long term American model in use. Most data from it can be found here CFSv2, but I'm hard pressed to find any analysis data of previous enso stats.

Euro is a limited model for free and most forecasts used here is based on EUROSIP which is a combination of ECMWF, UK, France, and NCEP. You can review it's numbers compared to outcome through 2008 and beyond. Hope that helps!

EUROSIP

Edit: One must remember ENSO is not an easy thing for models to predict, or humans for that matter. This is simply because we do not have proper observations of underwater features and sites in the vast Pacific (and elsewhere) to input data for them, it's mostly reactionary to the data they have of the atmosphere. It's only fairly well predicted when you have a moderate or strong ENSO event that starts fast and hard that you see decent skill anything less is subject to high variability.

[Ntxw]

The May update of the PDO index was released today and for the first time since the El Nino of 2009-2010 we have a positive value indicating warm PDO, though small at +0.08 despite the ENSO cooling last month.

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

So far June's SST's looks better than May for continued rising of the PDO with the warmest waters strengthening in the Northeast Pacific and cold waters emerging off the east coast of Australia, this should be taken into consideration for forecasts.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I'm not sure if we consider the signature in the Pacific a positive PDO signature. Warm anomalies are shifted more eastward for sure, but still not to the extent of a + signature. In addition, the waters from 160W to 140E are still above-average; during a positive PDO, these should be negative.

Looks like a negative PDO, just shifted farther east than usual...which is dangerous for landfalls.

[Ntxw]

I'm not sure if we consider the signature in the Pacific a positive PDO signature. Warm anomalies are shifted more eastward for sure, but still not to the extent of a + signature. In addition, the waters from 160W to 140E are still above-average; during a positive PDO, these should be negative.

Signature or not, it is a positive value regardless and ends the very long streak of several years being negative. It would likely need to rise 0.50+ or greater to start truly impacting as +PDO though. ENSO is the only thing keeping it from rising precipitously. Anomalous (warm northeast Pac) at first but has persisted for months now, something is keeping it there.

[cycloneye]

I'm not sure if we consider the signature in the Pacific a positive PDO signature. Warm anomalies are shifted more eastward for sure, but still not to the extent of a + signature. In addition, the waters from 160W to 140E are still above-average; during a positive PDO, these should be negative.

Signature or not, it is a positive value regardless and ends the very long streak of several years being negative. It would likely need to rise 0.50+ or greater to start truly impacting as +PDO though. ENSO is the only thing keeping it from rising precipitously. Anomalous (warm northeast Pac) at first but has persisted for months now, something is keeping it there.

A question trying to understand better about the PDO. What is the effect of a positive PDO on the North Atlantic Hurricane season?

[Ntxw]

A question trying to understand better about the PDO. What is the effect of a positive PDO on the North Atlantic Hurricane season?

Tropical season is not my expertise and I'm sure there are others here who can explain it much better. I do know that PDO effects greatly the weather pattern across NA. A +PDO would likely increase chances of landfalls in the SE US as troughs tend to dig into the eastern CONUS due to the high pressure (the anomalous one that has persisted) off the west coast. A ridge will center itself between the SW and southern plains forcing a trough/weakness near the gulf or east coast. It's not really a numbers game with the PDO aside from + or - enhancing ENSO which indirectly effects.

[ninel conde]

My feeling is if an el nino is going to come it better do something fast.

[hurricanetrack]

Nothing about the SOI even remotely suggests an El Nino is on the way:

SOI values for 11 Jun 2013 Average for last 30 days 13.1
Average for last 90 days 5.3
Daily contribution to SOI calculation: 20.8

Get the 90 day to drop to or below -5 then I'll be concerned.

[NDG]

You are absolutely right, all this El Nino talk just because of two warm bias models that busted last year.

[Kingarabian]

CPC/IRI consensus forecast

[cycloneye]

Latest ESPI data:-1.80

Another factor that screams no El Nino.The more negative this is,the less likely El Nino will come in the next few months.

http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html

[hurricanetrack]

That CPC/IRI chart is not recent. Latest CPC/IRI chart shows less than 15% chance of El Nino:

ASO 2013 31% 57% 12%

[beoumont]

[MWatkins]

It's interesting how wound up people can get when one or two model runs that go against the trend, no matter what that trend is. If we were looking at a full-scale warm episode evolving (which we're not), any model that made a slight change to cool would be similarly pounced upon.

We're in the second 10 day period in June now...and if a warm episode were indeed evolving, Occam's Razor says there would be evidence of that happening someplace in the ocean, right?

Which of these two mid-June SST anomaly maps would have you more worried about El Nino? A or B?

A: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anoma ... 3.2013.gif

B: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anoma ... 1.2005.gif

MW

[MWatkins]

...

Isn't this image/probability outlook based on Nino 3.4 only? How will the tropical atmosphere respond to a slightly warm 3.4 with a cold eastern Pacific in ASO?

MW

[beoumont]

...

Isn't this image/probability outlook based on Nino 3.4 only? How will the tropical atmosphere respond to a slightly warm 3.4 with a cold eastern Pacific in ASO?

MW

I can't answer the specific question. But, the graphic indicates there is only a 12% chance of an el nino episode in August, Sept., Oct. ---- and a 57% chance of neutral conditions, and 31% chance of la nina in zones 3-4. Those numbers say the odds of a slightly warm 3.4 in ASO are quite slim. Right now the 3.4 zone is normal to slightly cooler than normal; and it is June already.

[MWatkins]

...

Isn't this image/probability outlook based on Nino 3.4 only? How will the tropical atmosphere respond to a slightly warm 3.4 with a cold eastern Pacific in ASO?

MW

I can't answer the specific question. But, the graphic indicates there is only a 12% chance of an el nino episode in August, Sept., Oct. ---- and a 57% chance of neutral conditions, and 31% chance of la nina in zones 3-4. Those numbers say the odds of a slightly warm 3.4 in ASO are quite slim. Right now the 3.4 zone is slightly cooler than normal; and it is mid June already.

Exactly. That's an 88% chance of a neutral or cold event in the next few months. Those are "all in before the flop" poker odds!

MW

[Ntxw]

Ok folks lets lay this El Nino stuff to rest. There is no El Nino or La Nina, we are in neutral and will stay there likely through peak tropical season. Wxman57 only mentioned that the Euro looked warmer than before he didn't say an El Nino was coming. The only changes is that the PDO rose to positive and sub-surface waters transitioned against the cold pool underneath, that is all. CFSv2 has been going warm but it too is very borderline so even it has no confidence and waffles.

I know the term "El Nino" is devil's words in the tropical threads so to prevent panic lets avoid using it unless we are sure it's coming.

[MGC]

Betting the farm on no El Nino. Neutral to cold it appears.....MGC