Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

A rainy 4th of July day here with the wave moving thru.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
903 PM AST WED JUL 3 2013

.UPDATE...THE TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN A BAND ALMOST 250 MILES WIDE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALREADY PEPPER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND A FEW ARE MOVING
EAST THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. ONE PARTICULARLY VIGOROUS LINE IS
MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND WAS APPROACHING
ARECIBO AS OF 8:48 PM AST. IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ALONG THE
COAST WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN THE
EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
NO CHANGES TO NEAR TERM GRIDS OR THE THINKING OF THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AS THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS LOOKS A
LITTLE BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING TRADE WIND
SHWRS ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THU MORNING. THEREFORE...
PASSING SHRA COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS OVER MOST OF
THE LOCAL TAF SITES...EXCEPT TJMZ...TJBQ AND TJPS. TJSJ 04/00
SOUNDING INDICATED EASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT BLW FL050. SHRA AND
TSTMS WILL FORM IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO AFT 04/15Z TO GENERATE
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND MVFR CONDS...MAINLY AT TJMZ AND TJBQ.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK OVERNIGHT AND BUOY 41043 HAD
8.5 FOOT SEAS IN THE LAST SEVERAL READINGS AND HAD DROPPED TO 8.2
FEET. IN THE CARIBBEAN NEAR SHORE WINDS HAVE ABATED AND SEAS
REMAINED BELOW 4 FEET THERE. AFTER THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSES WINDS
AND SEAS WILL ABATE AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE OUTER
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL EXPIRE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Tropical Wave is moving thru PR today bringing scattered showers.Drier weather will arrive by tonight.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
431 AM AST THU JUL 4 2013

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY PASSING
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE...MOST NOTICABLE IN A WATER VAPOR LOOP OR AS THE LOW LEVEL
THETA-E RIDGE. SHOWERS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DROPPED OFF IN THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND EXPECT A SIMILAR REDUCTION IN SHOWERS FOR USVI
AND EXTREME EASTERN PR BY ABOUT NOON. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
AGAIN FIRE OVER WESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS WITH SMALL
STREAM OR URBAN FLOODING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER BELOW 1.5 INCHES IS APPROACHING FROM THE EAST
BUT MOST OF AIR THAT DRY WILL PASS THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FRI-SAT.

TUTT TYPE OF TROUGHS TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
BETWEEN 20N AND 30N...KEEPING THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NICELY SHEARED
WITH WESTERLIES ALOFT AND TROPICAL WAVES FROM DEVELOPING MUCH.
NEXT WAVE TO ARRIVE HERE CURRENTLY NEAR 45W...SCHEDULED BY GFS TO
ARRIVE SAT BUT WILL HAVE MOISTURE TRAILING WELL BEHIND. ATTM SEE
NO SIGNIFICANT EVENT WITHIN THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING TRADE WIND
SHWRS ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 04/15Z.
THEREFORE...PASSING SHRA COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...TIST AND TJSJ. AFTER 04/17 THIS
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS
TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS TJMZ
AND TJBQ. TJSJ 04/00 SOUNDING INDICATED EASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT
BLW FL050.

&&

.MARINE...SEA LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE
SLACKENED OVER LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO
PUSH SEAS TO 6 FEET OR LESS THEREAFTER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 87 77 / 50 40 40 30
STT 88 79 88 78 / 60 50 50 40

[Gustywind]

Forecast for some of the Islands in Eastern Caribbean

http://www.antiguamet.com/


Link has forecasts from some Islands in the area.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST THU JUL 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
NEXT FEW DAYS. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION
TOMORROW AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED MOST OF THE MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WERE BETWEEN ONE TO TWO INCHES IN SOME PLACES. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET.

LATEST SATELITE IMAGES SHOWS AN AREA OF DRY AIR STARTING TO MOVE
FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS AREA OF DRY AIR...IS
ACCOMPANY BY SAHARAN DUST...WHICH WILL SPREAD WESTWARD NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS. THEREFORE...LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. LATEST 04/12Z
SJU-GFS COMPUTER MODEL INDICATED THETAE VALUES AT 700MB WILL DROP
TO NEAR 320K BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THESE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...AS PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IN THE
LONG TERM....A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS TJMZ THROUGH AT LEAST 04/22Z IN +SHRA/+TSRA.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 05/12Z.


&&

.MARINE...LATEST 41043 BUOY OBSERVATION SHOWED SEAS BELOW 7 FEET
AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED...BUT
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS ALL WATERS
EXCEPT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 87 77 86 / 20 20 30 30
STT 79 88 78 88 / 20 20 40 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The next two days will be with good weather for PR but by Sunday,another Tropical Wave will arrive bringing scattered showers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
511 AM AST FRI JUL 5 2013

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
NEXT FEW DAYS. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY SUNDAY.

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS WITHOUT AFFECTING ANY LANDMASS. ALTHOUGH A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY AND
SATURDAY...AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH
DAYS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO.

HIS AREA OF DRY AIR...IS ACCOMPANY BY SAHARAN DUST...WHICH WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED AT
AROUND 51 WEST...IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND AFFECT
OUR LOCAL REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND THE CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ BETWEEN 05/17Z-21Z AS WELL AS
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVER WESTERN INTERIOR PR. LLVL WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE EAST AT 20 KT OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
NEXT FEW DAYS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS DUE TO WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 86 77 / 20 30 30 50
STT 88 78 88 79 / 20 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

Forecasts from a few Caribbean Islands

http://www.antiguamet.com/

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST FRI JUL 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL GENERATE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. AN AREA OF VERY DRY AIR MOVED OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH
LATEST 05/12Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATING 700MB THETAE VALUES AT 318K.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CAME AT ONLY 1.4 INCHES...WHICH IS
RELATIVE LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THIS DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE
LEADING EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WAVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR 54 WEST LONGITUDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER
MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING...AND WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
WAVE...ANOTHER WAVE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY...INCREASING
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT TJMZ THROUGH AT LEAST 05/22Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 06/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL
WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 77 88 / 20 30 50 50
STT 78 88 79 89 / 20 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning. PR and adjacent islands will be affected by two Tropical Waves that will move thru in the next few days bringing scattered showers with some gusts.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST SAT JUL 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
GENERATE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK. TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
BRING INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS
MOMENT...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED
FROM THESE SHOWERS.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REFLECTION JUST TO THE EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL COMBINE WITH A TROPICAL WAVE TODAY AND GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS ON MONDAY.

MODELS SUGGEST A MORE ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS SUGGESTING WINDS AT AROUND
30 MPH AND THE WAVE WATCH 3 MODEL IS ALSO SUGGESTING WAVE HEIGHTS OF
9 TO 12 FEET. I BELIEVE THAT THE MODELS ARE BEING TO AGGRESSIVE AND
WENT WITH A MORE CONSERVATIVE FORECAST WITH WINDS BETWEEN 17 TO
21 AND SEAS PEAKING AT 7 FEET. WE WILL MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS WAVE AND MODIFY THE FORECAST AS THE TIME GOES BY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING SHRA ACROSS THE
AREA WILL BRIEFLY AFFECTING TIST...TISX...AND POSSIBLY TJSJ DURING
THE REST OF THE MORNING. WIND IS EXPECTED FROM THE EAST TO ENE AT
AROUND 10KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST GENERALLY AROUND 15KTS AND GUSTY.
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT AFTER 06/16Z COULD CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS PR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS TJMZ.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK GENERATING CHOPPY SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. TROPICAL WAVE EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BRING INCREASED ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. ON WEDNESDAY A MORE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE ON SEAS...WINDS AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 86 78 / 20 50 50 50
STT 88 79 89 80 / 30 40 40 60

[cycloneye]

We have invest 95L in the Eastern Atlantic. Follow all the details about it at the 95L thread at active storms/invests forum.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=115188&hilit=&p=2315684#p2315684

[cycloneye]

We in the islands have to watch very closely 95L as it may develop and be a big threat. For that reason, you have to get all the details at the 95L discussion and model threads at active storms/invests forum.

viewforum.php?f=59

[Gustywind]

Forecast for some of the Islands in Eastern Caribbean

http://www.antiguamet.com/


Link has forecasts from some Islands in the area.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST SAT JUL 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FEW DAYS. A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A VERY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC...WILL APPROACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE HAS INCREASE TODAY...AS WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. FRESH
TRADE WINDS HAVE PUSHED THE ACTIVITY QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST
...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. LATEST TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS MOIST EXTEND FEW HUNDRED MILES
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LOCAL AREA UNDER
RELATIVELY WET PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...COMPUTER
MODEL INDICATED LOCAL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST DURING MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON IS A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WHICH
WAS LOCATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS TROPICAL WAVE...PER LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM THE NHC
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH NEXT FEW DAYS.
LATEST COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. 06/12Z GFS IS SHOWING WINDS BETWEEN 30 TO 35 KTS ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. WE WILL MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND MODIFY THE FORECAST AS THE TIME GOES
BY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
06/22Z IN AND AROUND TJMZ. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH ATL EAST
07/12Z....WITH SOME PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 78 87 / 50 50 50 50
STT 79 89 80 89 / 40 40 60 60

[Gustywind]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST SAT JUL 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FEW DAYS. A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A VERY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC...WILL APPROACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE HAS INCREASE TODAY...AS WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. FRESH
TRADE WINDS HAVE PUSHED THE ACTIVITY QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST
...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. LATEST TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS MOIST EXTEND FEW HUNDRED MILES
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LOCAL AREA UNDER
RELATIVELY WET PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...COMPUTER
MODEL INDICATED LOCAL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST DURING MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON IS A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WHICH
WAS LOCATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS TROPICAL WAVE...PER LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM THE NHC
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH NEXT FEW DAYS.
LATEST COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. 06/12Z GFS IS SHOWING WINDS BETWEEN 30 TO 35 KTS ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. WE WILL MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND MODIFY THE FORECAST AS THE TIME GOES
BY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
06/22Z IN AND AROUND TJMZ. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH ATL EAST
07/12Z....WITH SOME PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 78 87 / 50 50 50 50
STT 79 89 80 89 / 40 40 60 60

Hey hey Cycloneye, this story is becoming more serious . Let's begin to monitor it seriously islanders and keep an eye on it.

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 062342
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT
950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION
AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
20 TO 25 MPH.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1008 PM AST SAT JUL 6 2013

.UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS LINGERED UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED MAINLY THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO WITH SOME OTHER SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO RECEIVING PASSING MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND EASTERN COASTAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO OBSERVED PERSISTENT PASSING SHOWERS WELL
INTO THE EVENING WHILE THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OBSERVED A FEW
LIGHT TO MODERATE PASSING SHOWERS.

MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS...POSSIBLY AFFECTING BRIEFLY THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGES
SUGGEST THAT THERE IS EVEN MORE MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MOISTURE
WILL REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LCL AREA THRU 07/16Z.
PASSING SHRA WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT TJPS...TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TNCM
AND TKPK WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS. AFT 07/14Z SHRA WILL INCREASE IN THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND SPREAD WEST THROUGH TIST AND TISX WITH GREATER
AREAS OF MVFR. SHRA WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER INTERIOR PUERTO RICO AND
TJMZ WITH MVFR CONDS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS. WINDS EAST 10 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT IN HEAVY SHRA BCMG SE 10 TO 15 KT FROM 10-15 KFT.
SCT SHRA WILL CONT BYD 08/02Z.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET
AND WINDS OF UP TO 21 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. All eyes are on 95L wave to see how it will affect the Eastern Caribbean islands in terms of being a wave or more developed than that.Stay tuned.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
440 AM AST SUN JUL 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
GENERATE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
AND REACH OUR LOCAL REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. PASSING SHOWERS ALSO AFFECTED THE USVI AND THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS AFTERNOON...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN HALF AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE AT AROUND SUNSET.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING AT AROUND 25 MPH...THEREFORE
MODIFIED THE WEATHER ARRIVAL. MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING THE
ARRIVAL OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER TO BEGIN LATE TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS
WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY AS A OPEN WAVE...CITIZEN SHOULD
MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THRU 07/16Z. PASSING SHRA WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT
TJSJ...TIST AND TISX PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
AFT 07/14Z SHRA WILL INCREASE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND SPREAD WEST
THROUGH TIST AND TISX WITH GREATER AREAS OF MVFR. SHRA WILL ALSO
INCREASE OVER INTERIOR PUERTO RICO AND TJMZ WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. WINDS EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT IN HEAVY SHRA.


&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK...THESE WILL GENERATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. BEFORE MENTIONED STRONG TROPICAL
WAVE...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SEAS UP
TO 12 FEET ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE...WENT WITH A CONSERVATIVE
FORECAST WITH FORECAST SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE AND MODIFY THE
FORECAST AS NEEDED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 87 78 / 50 50 50 50
STT 89 80 89 80 / 30 60 60 50

[gigabite]

From an atmospheric tide point of view, I would expect some interplay with the upcoming high tide. The system is just within my area of interest, being within 10 degrees of the lunar sub point. I will be looking at the goes 13 IR from 13:15 to 16:15 for a growth on the cloud top. I'll weigh the cloud mass it there is a significant change.

[gigabite]

From an atmospheric tide point of view, I would expect some interplay with the upcoming high tide. The system is just within my area of interest, being within 10 degrees of the lunar sub point. I will be looking at the goes 13 IR from 13:15 to 16:15 for a growth on the cloud top. I'll weigh the cloud mass it there is a significant change.

Well it didn't grow over that period it lost 26.5 percent of it's mass. at that rate it will be gone in 8 hours.

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 071720
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 25 MPH. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...
AND RECENT SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION MAY BE FORMING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM AT ANY TIME...WHICH WOULD
REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Gustywind]

Barbados has issued a Special Weather Statement due to the presence of 95L who could churn close to them. Windwars islanders should monitor carefully the situation.


http://barbadosweather.org/MT-Warnings-tbpb.php

Special Weather Statement
Issued at 12:00 noon Sunday, 07th July, 2013
The Barbados Meteorological Services is monitoring the progress of a strong tropical wave located over the eastern Atlantic with an accompanying 1009 mb low pressure centre near 10N 43W.
At present the system is about 1200 miles…1930km to the east southeast of Barbados, and is moving towards the west at 25 mph…40 kmh
Showers and thunderstorm activity accompanying the low pressure centre have fluctuated in intensity during the morning. However, environmental conditions remain conducive for further development.
Regardless of development, this system has the potential to generate some moderate to heavy showers, scattered thunderstorms and gusty winds as it moves across Barbados late Monday into Tuesday.
Residents should continue to monitor the progress of this system and take all necessary precautions.
The Barbados Meteorological Services will issue further statements on this system as conditions warrant.……………………….
Hampden Lovell
Director (Ag)
BARBADOS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
GRANTLEY ADAMS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
SEAWELL, CHRIST CHURCH
TEL. NO.: (246) 428-0910
FAX NO.: (246) 428-1676
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