ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

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Hurricane Andrew
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#381 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sun Jul 07, 2013 3:17 pm

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Just my updated probs forecast.

Storm: 95L
Forecast: 4, 4pm EDT July 7
Chance of Development
48 Hours: 80%
72 Hours: 80%
120 Hours: 90%
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#382 Postby GCANE » Sun Jul 07, 2013 3:17 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#383 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Jul 07, 2013 3:23 pm

SFLcane wrote:Possible ridging being shown by some models once it gets in southern bahamas.

edit.. another shift northward it seems on some 18z just updated

Image

What happened to all that ridging along the East Coast?
This setup seems very similar to Hurricane Irene and Hurricane Sandy!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#384 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jul 07, 2013 3:25 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Possible ridging being shown by some models once it gets in southern bahamas.

edit.. another shift northward it seems on some 18z just updated


What happened to all that ridging along the East Coast?
This setup seems very similar to Hurricane Irene and Hurricane Sandy!


Looks like all the models show the Bermuda High getting replaced by a trough along the Eastern seaboard of the United States in the 5-7 day timeframe, but then after that the trough retrogrades back west just like we saw this past week and another strong Bermuda High builds back in.

That is why some of the runs are showing a bend back to the west at the end.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#385 Postby torrea40 » Sun Jul 07, 2013 3:35 pm

At this time any T numbers, ATFC or Best Track ..???????
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#386 Postby ouragans » Sun Jul 07, 2013 3:37 pm

torrea40 wrote:At this time any T numbers, ATFC or Best Track ..???????

the next update comes by 0045z, or earlier if they're in hurry
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#387 Postby meriland23 » Sun Jul 07, 2013 3:40 pm

I am shocked by how fast this is developing given the fact it is booking it at 25 mph... typically that creates a slow/ low development rate..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#388 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sun Jul 07, 2013 3:47 pm

I'm not buying into the long range, next weekends forecast, of such another strong east coast trough. What I think we are seeing is the models having a common every season interest in turning systems north to quick. Sure the ridge may break down some but then let's see if models start to show 95l slowing down and making a slow turn to the nw towards the bahamas, only then to be turned back to the west by a building ridge.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#389 Postby Blown Away » Sun Jul 07, 2013 3:47 pm

Image
WPC has 95L off SFL coast at day 5 then due N off GA/SC at day 6. 95L tracks over Hispaniola and E Cuba as a low then becomes a front off SFL, so likely not much left after that path.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#390 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 07, 2013 3:55 pm

Night falling over 95L.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#391 Postby SapphireSea » Sun Jul 07, 2013 3:59 pm

Nice band blowing up NW of the center. There is probably alot more instability than expected out here. Good SSTs, a area pocket of light shear with what looks like ULL High. It's probably why its developing very fast in this short term. We will have to see how it does with the minima tonight. If it sustains most of this convection as is, then there must be a tight LLC somewhere in there.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#392 Postby weatherwindow » Sun Jul 07, 2013 4:13 pm

IMHO, if and a big if, the current trends continue, ie; convection persists over the apparent LLC, shear doesnt increase over current levels, and Dvorak numbers remain at or over 2, upgrade is likely as early as this evening and no later than Monday morning. Altho the numbers imply TS strength, 35kts at 1008mb, the initial upgrade will likely be to TD. Lack of ground data(ship reports, etc) and the initial absence of recon dictate a conservative approach. Any upgrade to TS will likely wait on recon Tueday afternoon.

Of course, any resemblance of the above comments to reality is strictly coincidental and the repetition thereof will be assiduously avoided. Hence, any use of the aforementioned comments for decision-making would be the most abject folly :oops:


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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#393 Postby Blown Away » Sun Jul 07, 2013 4:24 pm

SFLcane wrote:Possible ridging being shown by some models once it gets in southern bahamas.

edit.. another shift northward it seems on some 18z just updated

Image


If 95L is classified, the NHC track usually follows very close to the TVCN track (Gray line)...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#394 Postby MississippiWx » Sun Jul 07, 2013 4:28 pm

weatherwindow wrote:IMHO, if and a big if, the current trends continue, ie; convection persists over the apparent LLC, shear doesnt increase over current levels, and Dvorak numbers remain at or over 2, upgrade is likely as early as this evening and no later than Monday morning. Altho the numbers imply TS strength, 35kts at 1008mb, the initial upgrade will likely be to TD. Lack of ground data(ship reports, etc) and the initial absence of recon dictate a conservative approach. Any upgrade to TS will likely wait on recon Tueday afternoon.

Of course, any resemblance of the above comments to reality is strictly coincidental and the repetition thereof will be assiduously avoided. Hence, any use of the aforementioned comments for decision-making would be the most abject folly :oops:


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ATCF has winds at 35kts. Thus, any upgrade would be straight to TS strength.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Last edited by MississippiWx on Sun Jul 07, 2013 4:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#395 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 07, 2013 4:38 pm

A reminder to the members that if anyone makes a personal statement or does a personal discussion don't forget to add our disclaimer, thanks for your cooperation.

:darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#396 Postby MississippiWx » Sun Jul 07, 2013 4:40 pm

cycloneye wrote:A reminder to the members that if anyone makes a statement or does a discussion don't forget to add our disclaimer, thanks for your cooperation.

:darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow:

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I don't know why mine didn't show up. It's supposed to do it every time.

Edit: Nvm. Figured it out, cyclone. Thanks! Back to 95L...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#397 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sun Jul 07, 2013 4:51 pm

Blown Away wrote::uarrow: What's up with that dark red line, it goes through Hobe Sound?? :D That's a crazy track...



Is crazy but seems like it has happened similarly before at least on one occaision

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#398 Postby jinftl » Sun Jul 07, 2013 5:06 pm

Many of the models that do develop 95L into a tropical storm (and not all models are forecasting even that), weaken the system by days 4 & 5. There are many factors that are not going to make this develop much - and given that it is early july, that is not surprising - SAL, marginal SST, very fast speed

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#399 Postby Blown Away » Sun Jul 07, 2013 5:09 pm

jinftl wrote:Many of the models that do develop 95L into a tropical storm (and not all models are forecasting even that), weaken the system by days 4 & 5. There are many factors that are not going to make this develop much - and given that it is early july, that is not surprising - SAL, marginal SST, very fast speed


Day 4/5, land interaction maybe the biggest factor.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#400 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 07, 2013 5:10 pm

TVCN is just a blend of the models and not a model per se. I am not looking at one model right now until the EURO latches on. That said the more west 95L keeps booking the more left the models will shift, the more weak 95L stays the more west. I fully expect a shift left tonight.....IMO

The EURO is after all still the KING!
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