ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical
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- Hurricane Andrew
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Just my updated probs forecast.
Storm: 95L
Forecast: 4, 4pm EDT July 7
Chance of Development
48 Hours: 80%
72 Hours: 80%
120 Hours: 90%
Just my updated probs forecast.
Storm: 95L
Forecast: 4, 4pm EDT July 7
Chance of Development
48 Hours: 80%
72 Hours: 80%
120 Hours: 90%
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The Enthusiast
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Irene '11, Sandy '12, Irma '17 (SAR)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Overshooting tops, anti-cyclone, and a 0.5C warm core.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 071915.GIF
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8shr.GIF
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 7_TANO.GIF
Looks like a textbook pouch.
It has my attention.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 071915.GIF
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8shr.GIF
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 7_TANO.GIF
Looks like a textbook pouch.
It has my attention.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
SFLcane wrote:Possible ridging being shown by some models once it gets in southern bahamas.
edit.. another shift northward it seems on some 18z just updated
What happened to all that ridging along the East Coast?
This setup seems very similar to Hurricane Irene and Hurricane Sandy!
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
TheStormExpert wrote:SFLcane wrote:Possible ridging being shown by some models once it gets in southern bahamas.
edit.. another shift northward it seems on some 18z just updated
What happened to all that ridging along the East Coast?
This setup seems very similar to Hurricane Irene and Hurricane Sandy!
Looks like all the models show the Bermuda High getting replaced by a trough along the Eastern seaboard of the United States in the 5-7 day timeframe, but then after that the trough retrogrades back west just like we saw this past week and another strong Bermuda High builds back in.
That is why some of the runs are showing a bend back to the west at the end.
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- ouragans
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
torrea40 wrote:At this time any T numbers, ATFC or Best Track ..???????
the next update comes by 0045z, or earlier if they're in hurry
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This post is a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.
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- meriland23
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I am shocked by how fast this is developing given the fact it is booking it at 25 mph... typically that creates a slow/ low development rate..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
I'm not buying into the long range, next weekends forecast, of such another strong east coast trough. What I think we are seeing is the models having a common every season interest in turning systems north to quick. Sure the ridge may break down some but then let's see if models start to show 95l slowing down and making a slow turn to the nw towards the bahamas, only then to be turned back to the west by a building ridge.
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- Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

WPC has 95L off SFL coast at day 5 then due N off GA/SC at day 6. 95L tracks over Hispaniola and E Cuba as a low then becomes a front off SFL, so likely not much left after that path.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Night falling over 95L.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Nice band blowing up NW of the center. There is probably alot more instability than expected out here. Good SSTs, a area pocket of light shear with what looks like ULL High. It's probably why its developing very fast in this short term. We will have to see how it does with the minima tonight. If it sustains most of this convection as is, then there must be a tight LLC somewhere in there.
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- weatherwindow
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
IMHO, if and a big if, the current trends continue, ie; convection persists over the apparent LLC, shear doesnt increase over current levels, and Dvorak numbers remain at or over 2, upgrade is likely as early as this evening and no later than Monday morning. Altho the numbers imply TS strength, 35kts at 1008mb, the initial upgrade will likely be to TD. Lack of ground data(ship reports, etc) and the initial absence of recon dictate a conservative approach. Any upgrade to TS will likely wait on recon Tueday afternoon.
Of course, any resemblance of the above comments to reality is strictly coincidental and the repetition thereof will be assiduously avoided. Hence, any use of the aforementioned comments for decision-making would be the most abject folly
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Of course, any resemblance of the above comments to reality is strictly coincidental and the repetition thereof will be assiduously avoided. Hence, any use of the aforementioned comments for decision-making would be the most abject folly

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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- Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
SFLcane wrote:Possible ridging being shown by some models once it gets in southern bahamas.
edit.. another shift northward it seems on some 18z just updated
If 95L is classified, the NHC track usually follows very close to the TVCN track (Gray line)...
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- MississippiWx
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
weatherwindow wrote:IMHO, if and a big if, the current trends continue, ie; convection persists over the apparent LLC, shear doesnt increase over current levels, and Dvorak numbers remain at or over 2, upgrade is likely as early as this evening and no later than Monday morning. Altho the numbers imply TS strength, 35kts at 1008mb, the initial upgrade will likely be to TD. Lack of ground data(ship reports, etc) and the initial absence of recon dictate a conservative approach. Any upgrade to TS will likely wait on recon Tueday afternoon.
Of course, any resemblance of the above comments to reality is strictly coincidental and the repetition thereof will be assiduously avoided. Hence, any use of the aforementioned comments for decision-making would be the most abject folly
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
ATCF has winds at 35kts. Thus, any upgrade would be straight to TS strength.
This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Last edited by MississippiWx on Sun Jul 07, 2013 4:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
A reminder to the members that if anyone makes a personal statement or does a personal discussion don't forget to add our disclaimer, thanks for your cooperation.
This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.















This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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- MississippiWx
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:A reminder to the members that if anyone makes a statement or does a discussion don't forget to add our disclaimer, thanks for your cooperation.
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This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I don't know why mine didn't show up. It's supposed to do it every time.
Edit: Nvm. Figured it out, cyclone. Thanks! Back to 95L...
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This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Blown Away wrote::uarrow: What's up with that dark red line, it goes through Hobe Sound??That's a crazy track...
Is crazy but seems like it has happened similarly before at least on one occaision

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Many of the models that do develop 95L into a tropical storm (and not all models are forecasting even that), weaken the system by days 4 & 5. There are many factors that are not going to make this develop much - and given that it is early july, that is not surprising - SAL, marginal SST, very fast speed


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- Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
jinftl wrote:Many of the models that do develop 95L into a tropical storm (and not all models are forecasting even that), weaken the system by days 4 & 5. There are many factors that are not going to make this develop much - and given that it is early july, that is not surprising - SAL, marginal SST, very fast speed
Day 4/5, land interaction maybe the biggest factor.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
TVCN is just a blend of the models and not a model per se. I am not looking at one model right now until the EURO latches on. That said the more west 95L keeps booking the more left the models will shift, the more weak 95L stays the more west. I fully expect a shift left tonight.....IMO
The EURO is after all still the KING!
The EURO is after all still the KING!
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