ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

No one posted tomorrow's flight plan. Flights taking off at 7:00am and 7:00pm Eastern:

Code: Select all

REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT MON 08 JULY 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z JULY 2013
         TCPOD NUMBER.....13-038

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72      FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 70
       A. 10/0000Z,0600Z          A. 10/1200Z,1800Z
       B. AFXXX 0303A CHANTAL     B. AFXXX 0403A CHANTAL
       C. 09/2300Z                C. 10/1100Z
       D. 15.2N 64.1W             D. 16.8N 68.2W
       E. 09/2330Z TO 10/0600Z    E. 10/1130Z TO 10/1800Z
       F. SFC TO 10,00 FT         F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES WHILE
       SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

I fixed your post to add the code feature as it was not clear with the two missions joint.

[chaser1]

Here's something that I find peculiar about this 12Z 850mb run that you are displaying. Though a surface reflection is also appearant on the 12Z GFS run, it by no means appears to be deepening at least to the extent that it would appear to be on the 850mb maps. I often refer to the 850mb level when looking to see if there is some rotation in a wave or in an early/late season Caribbean set up, that might lead to cyclongenesis and work its way down to the surface. Its strange however, that deepening would be inferred by the latest run if looking at the 850mb level, yet if looking at the surface forecast from the same GFS run, just doesn't quite translate the same implied deepening.

[Portastorm]

Oh lord, if this 12z GFS op run were to verify on Chantal's track ... I'm confident we'd set new records on this board for number of users online.

[Jevo]

12z GFS loses the storm @ +200 like it wasn't even there. Waiting for the 12z Euro for ridge intensity.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS has the center about 150 miles south of Apalachicola, FL heading westward in the general direction of SE Louisiana in about 8 days. Interesting. Can't rule that out.

[Jevo]

12z GFS MSLP & 10m Wind Speed full Loop

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

[wxman57]

Chantal landfall in SW Louisiana on the 20th while the system moving off Africa in a few days is near western Cuba. Sure, I believe it.

[Stormlover2012]

I wouldn't be surprise that it went across the gom into texas, high pressure will prob build back in and then keep it tricking to the west and then feel the weakeness, I remember Ike was supposed feel the weakeness and be a east coast storm so who knows what will happen, I'm euro all the way so lets see what euro shows!!

[floridasun78]

12z GFS MSLP & 10m Wind Speed full Loop

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

question i have will nhc look at this gfs run ? say this may not be weak system we think it was going to be

[chaser1]

Plotting the 00Z Euro and GFS 500mb height contours I see that the GFS builds the ridge north of Chantal by 120hrs but the Euro does not. Though the Euro doesn't indicate Chantal in the surface pressure pattern, it does have a clear path to recurve east of Florida at 00Z.

Will be interesting to see if the 12Z Euro is any different. Clearly, the GFS builds the ridge ahead of Chantal, shoving it west into Florida.

While I personally prefer to reference the GFS with regarding to development and near/mid term motion of tropical cyclones, I would typically defer to the EURO regarding longer term (once finally "latched onto a system") given what I think may be a slightly better handle on larger scale/global upper air conditions. On the other hand, GFS might be out to lunch with Chantal and for all we know, there won't be an open wave past 96 hours (much less a remnant low or reforming depression. On the flip side, the EURO is not exactly the model that I would most quickly reference for small scale system development.

Of more interest is whether the EURO suddenly builds the ridge over and/or just East of Florida, and in contrast to its prior run. Seeing this in conjunction with the GFS would be real interesting. My "gut" tells me that this might well be what the updated run might indicate (jeez, I love model wars

[Gustywind]

From the RCI (Radio Caribean International) Martinique, press article.

YELLOW ALERT: CHANTAL THREATENS MARTINIQUE

July 8, 2013 | 10 H41

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... CE-LA.html

It is the first cyclonic phenomenon of the season. Her name is Chantal and taking into account its trajectory, Martinique was placed on yellow alert. A bit late according to observers which specify that the Americans had taken a bit of ahead of their weather France colleagues.


The storm tropical Chantal was located this morning at 1200 Km South East of Martinique. And headed on the Caribbean arc at a speed of 40km / h. suddenly weather France triggered the yellow alert. It must be said that since 7: 00 this morning, the time is unstable with stormy homes everywhere in the island. The rest still cloudy sky and strong enough showers in places. Weather France still expected a slight improvement in the course of the afternoon. The weather is expected to deteriorate at the end of the night with the approach of Chantal. The most likely trajectory Chantal should pass tomorrow Tuesday July 9 between the island of St. Lucia (to the South of Martinique) and Dominica (North of Martinique). Weather France provides also the wind blowing up to 80 see 100 km/h. The sea will become strong with average lows of 3 to 3.50 metres in Atlantic. Suffice to say that the caution is. After a rather cautious start, cyclonic activity so intensified this week across the basins. In the North Atlantic, a first wave of East could organize themselves equidistant from Cape Verde and Caribbean. Before becoming a tropical storm since the weekend, named Chantal by U.S. weather services. Its trajectory is to monitor this phenomenon, it should be remembered, headed to Martinique, that he could reach by Tuesday. Winds of 100 km/h and heavy rainfall are to be feared. Longer term, the tropical storm could move in the direction of Haiti, a region very vulnerable to this type of phenomenon. Then, Chantal will probably fade in the direction of Florida. Need to stay tuned to Radio Caribbean International already mobilized. A rancid weather Fapres forecaster will be live on RCI Martinique at noon. JMP

[BUCMAN48]

Actually the 12Z GFS builds the ridge back in much faster possibly pushing Chantel across central Florida between Tampa and
FT. Myers at hr 152 and then into the Gulf

[floridasun78]

new gfs now dont show Chantel weaking that much now show a bit stronger system fl.i saw it on model page here storm2k someone posting gfs new run

[gatorcane]

Actually the 12Z GFS builds the ridge back in much faster possibly pushing Chantel across central Florida between Tampa and
FT. Myers at hr 152 and then into the Gulf

Wasn't JB saying a few weeks ago to watch for a system to impact Florida between Orlando and Miami in the mid July timeframe (I think he said Jul 12th).

At the time I thought he was crazy...the fact that it has some chance of actually happening now is unbelievable.

July is usually a very quite month for tropical threats for Florida when you look at climatology.

[Wx_Warrior]

My brother, who is a PRO MET: "I haven't looked at the GFS in 2 years."

[floridasun78]

gfs vs EURO who right Models let war begain

[chaser1]

(Here's something that I find peculiar about this 12Z 850mb run that you are displaying)

12z GFS MSLP & 10m Wind Speed full Loop

Thanks Jevo, but thats kinda my point? Surface maps see no more than a 1013 remnant low treking across Florida. The 850mb charts would seem to indicate a significantly more developed system (albiet not necessarily at the surface). Do you find this to be a better indicator of development, or do you find the GFS surface forecast maps that much less reliable of forecasted intensity. (Contrary to most circumstances, I will admit that the GFS did not forecast Chantal's development..., jeez, i'm not sure if I recall whether its crazy uncle CMC even forecasted Chantal LOL)

[Stormlover2012]

Guys give it 2 more days and we can start to see the model war, euro was slowly showing the ridge building back, I mean gfs is up and down just like a Hs relationship u never know what u are going to get from the gfs.

[gatorcane]

Plotting the 00Z Euro and GFS 500mb height contours I see that the GFS builds the ridge north of Chantal by 120hrs but the Euro does not. Though the Euro doesn't indicate Chantal in the surface pressure pattern, it does have a clear path to recurve east of Florida at 00Z.

Will be interesting to see if the 12Z Euro is any different. Clearly, the GFS builds the ridge ahead of Chantal, shoving it west into Florida.

While I personally prefer to reference the GFS with regarding to development and near/mid term motion of tropical cyclones, I would typically defer to the EURO regarding longer term (once finally "latched onto a system") given what I think may be a slightly better handle on larger scale/global upper air conditions. On the other hand, GFS might be out to lunch with Chantal and for all we know, there won't be an open wave past 96 hours (much less a remnant low or reforming depression. On the flip side, the EURO is not exactly the model that I would most quickly reference for small scale system development.

Of more interest is whether the EURO suddenly builds the ridge over and/or just East of Florida, and in contrast to its prior run. Seeing this in conjunction with the GFS would be real interesting. My "gut" tells me that this might well be what the updated run might indicate (jeez, I love model wars

Well when looking at steering features in the mid to long-range like we are dealing with here, I would lean more with the ECMWF than the GFS.

Some GFS mess-ups do come to mind, the last big one being how it thought Sandy would recurve out to sea in it's forecast when the ECMWF was able to correctly predict the steering showing a ridge building in pushing it west towards the Northeastern United States.

[hurricanekid416]

This is very similar to Emily