ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Models

#1281 Postby artist » Mon Jul 08, 2013 7:12 pm

sunnyday wrote:My friend who lives in WPB called and said that her local tv met said that Chantal will likely miss their area by around 75 miles to the east. Does that sound logical? 8-) 8-)

sounds like that met is trying to use the center point within the cone as absolute as to where it will go. He is not considering we are within that cone which is representative of where the center could fall from either left or right of that center line to the boundaries of that drawn cone the NHC draws in.
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#1282 Postby artist » Mon Jul 08, 2013 7:13 pm

URNT15 KNHC 090006
AF302 0103A CHANTAL HDOB 35 20130708
235800 1228N 05547W 9669 00405 0125 +233 +205 041029 031 030 001 00
235830 1227N 05546W 9668 00406 0124 +230 +207 042028 029 029 001 00
235900 1226N 05544W 9662 00411 0124 +229 +210 042028 029 029 000 00
235930 1224N 05543W 9668 00403 0123 +229 +204 043029 031 026 002 00
000000 1223N 05542W 9665 00404 0122 +230 +203 042030 032 026 001 00
000030 1222N 05541W 9667 00403 0121 +230 +205 040030 031 026 001 00
000100 1221N 05540W 9664 00404 0120 +227 +207 033029 030 026 000 00
000130 1220N 05539W 9669 00398 0120 +227 +207 034029 031 025 001 00
000200 1219N 05538W 9665 00401 0119 +225 +210 032027 028 024 001 00
000230 1218N 05536W 9665 00401 0118 +225 +210 031027 029 024 000 00
000300 1217N 05535W 9667 00399 0117 +224 +212 030025 028 022 000 00
000330 1215N 05534W 9666 00399 0117 +225 +213 022024 026 022 000 00
000400 1214N 05533W 9664 00400 0117 +225 +213 022023 024 020 001 00
000430 1213N 05532W 9661 00403 0116 +225 +213 023021 023 023 000 00
000500 1213N 05530W 9666 00398 0115 +225 +214 018020 022 022 001 00
000530 1212N 05529W 9668 00395 0114 +225 +213 019020 021 022 000 00
000600 1211N 05527W 9667 00395 0114 +224 +210 021019 022 021 002 00
000630 1210N 05526W 9665 00398 0115 +222 +211 019017 019 022 000 00
000700 1209N 05525W 9665 00397 0114 +223 +213 013014 014 019 003 00
000730 1209N 05523W 9661 00402 0115 +220 +215 011012 014 019 001 00
$$
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Models

#1283 Postby pgoss11 » Mon Jul 08, 2013 7:13 pm

sunnyday wrote:My friend who lives in WPB called and said that her local tv met said that Chantal will likely miss their area by around 75 miles to the east. Does that sound logical? 8-) 8-)

Maybe they are thinking Chantal will go further north before hanging that left turn..I think some models show the turn furter up the coast of Florida
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Models

#1284 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Jul 08, 2013 7:16 pm

pgoss11 wrote:
sunnyday wrote:My friend who lives in WPB called and said that her local tv met said that Chantal will likely miss their area by around 75 miles to the east. Does that sound logical? 8-) 8-)

Maybe they are thinking Chantal will go further north before hanging that left turn..I think some models show the turn furter up the coast of Florida


The models are all over the place with this one right now.
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Models

#1285 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Jul 08, 2013 7:16 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
sunnyday wrote:My friend who lives in WPB called and said that her local tv met said that Chantal will likely miss their area by around 75 miles to the east. Does that sound logical? 8-) 8-)


Way way way to early to tell.



Considering the track error at 5 days is something like 200 miles I wouldn't put much faith in the storm being 75 miles offshore... could be right over WPB or several hundred miles offshore.
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#1286 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 08, 2013 7:16 pm

nice I knew the actual center was farther north. 12.1 ... recon hard turn found the real center.
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Re:

#1287 Postby Syx6sic » Mon Jul 08, 2013 7:17 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:nice I knew the actual center was farther north. 12.1 ... recon hard turn found the real center.

Was about to say that same thing with the latest I seen from recon with winds going down and direction change
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#1288 Postby vacanechaser » Mon Jul 08, 2013 7:19 pm

So much for "finding a weaker and unorganized system". Even after finding winds that supported an increase.. Seems some things never change..smh..



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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1289 Postby bamajammer4eva » Mon Jul 08, 2013 7:19 pm

JBastardi says Chantal not really stronger-A few of his tweets last few min

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 9m
Chantal Stronger??? alot of that wind is because of exposure to abnormally strong high, Pressure 6mb HIGHER than estimated by NHC!

In end,pressure is crucial as once away from the high, winds will dropquickly if pressure in storm does not lower!
My not be closed s side


My take is this is not stronger.. the real news is the pressure is abnormally high and this could fall apart quickly if encounter with Hisp.
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Re:

#1290 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 08, 2013 7:19 pm

vacanechaser wrote:So much for "finding a weaker and unorganized system". Even after finding winds that supported an increase.. Seems some things never change..smh..



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true :) hey jesse
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#1291 Postby artist » Mon Jul 08, 2013 7:20 pm

URNT15 KNHC 090016
AF302 0103A CHANTAL HDOB 36 20130709
000800 1208N 05522W 9668 00393 0114 +221 +213 008012 012 013 001 00
000830 1207N 05520W 9664 00398 0114 +221 +212 016010 012 012 002 00
000900 1207N 05519W 9666 00396 0114 +223 +210 016007 008 015 001 00
000930 1206N 05517W 9667 00396 0114 +220 +215 011005 006 015 001 00
001000 1206N 05516W 9664 00398 0114 +221 +213 008004 005 015 001 00
001030 1205N 05514W 9666 00396 0114 +222 +205 344003 004 012 002 00
001100 1205N 05513W 9668 00394 0115 +225 +203 300001 003 013 000 00
001130 1204N 05511W 9664 00399 0116 +220 +211 177003 004 015 002 03
001200 1203N 05510W 9665 00398 0118 +212 +211 154002 004 /// /// 03
001230 1202N 05510W 9662 00402 0120 +205 //// 158001 002 020 003 01
001300 1201N 05511W 9667 00397 0122 +207 //// 200004 007 031 011 05
001330 1200N 05513W 9660 00406 0122 +211 //// 187007 008 022 006 01
001400 1159N 05514W 9663 00405 0120 +218 +212 179003 006 015 004 00
001430 1158N 05515W 9667 00400 0120 +223 +210 004001 002 013 001 00
001500 1157N 05516W 9667 00402 0121 +225 +206 355002 003 014 000 00
001530 1156N 05518W 9666 00402 0121 +225 +199 044002 003 014 001 00
001600 1155N 05519W 9667 00402 0121 +227 +190 013001 003 017 001 00
001630 1154N 05520W 9665 00404 0122 +227 +194 036004 004 013 002 00
001700 1153N 05521W 9666 00404 0122 +228 +197 040005 005 012 001 00
001730 1152N 05523W 9668 00403 0123 +225 +199 045005 006 012 001 00
$$
;
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Re:

#1292 Postby Gustywind » Mon Jul 08, 2013 7:20 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:nice I knew the actual center was farther north. 12.1 ... recon hard turn found the real center.

Aric, is that a new relocation? :roll:
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#1293 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Jul 08, 2013 7:21 pm

Image
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Re: Re:

#1294 Postby adam0983 » Mon Jul 08, 2013 7:21 pm

Does a stronger storm mean it will be pulled out to sea?
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#1295 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 08, 2013 7:21 pm

and the sw quad is still going to be weak till it can slow down or intensify more.
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#1296 Postby vacanechaser » Mon Jul 08, 2013 7:22 pm

Hey Aric..you know I was gonna say something.. Sorry, but sometimes it bugs the hell out of me..
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#1297 Postby summersquall » Mon Jul 08, 2013 7:23 pm

What are the controlling variables with regard to Chantal's speed?

She looks pretty ragged to these untrained eyes and am a little surprised that recon found the wind speeds that they did in conjunction with the relatively high pressures and unstacked (if that's the correct term) center circulations.

A very interesting early season storm to watch and learn from.
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Re:

#1298 Postby GTStorm » Mon Jul 08, 2013 7:25 pm



Hey that is an awesome link, thanks for posting !!!
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Re:

#1299 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 08, 2013 7:26 pm

vacanechaser wrote:Hey Aric..you know I was gonna say something.. Sorry, but sometimes it bugs the hell out of me..


yeah I know :)
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Models

#1300 Postby CourierPR » Mon Jul 08, 2013 7:29 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:
sunnyday wrote:My friend who lives in WPB called and said that her local tv met said that Chantal will likely miss their area by around 75 miles to the east. Does that sound logical? 8-) 8-)


Way way way to early to tell.



Considering the track error at 5 days is something like 200 miles I wouldn't put much faith in the storm being 75 miles offshore... could be right over WPB or several hundred miles offshore.


Perhaps the met. said that if it follows the current projected track, it will miss WPB by 75 miles to the east. I can't envision any local TV met. making that call with any certainty at this point when the storm hasn't passed the Lesser Antilles.
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