ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[Evil Jeremy]

but shear waiting for it so it be very weak like td or low it will bring fl rain we use too

Don't be so sure there is shear waiting...

[ROCK]

here is another look at the 18Z GFS ensembles....more and more making a hard left...



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[SFLcane]

[hurricanefloyd5]

did the low at the surface reform to the north?

[Evil Jeremy]

did the low at the surface reform to the north?

No. We have been following the same low all day, despite some confusion from the start of the recon mission earlier.

[bamajammer4eva]

:roll:

[img]http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al032013_inten.png

Looks like the NHC is sticking closest to the NVGI model for intensity and tossing the rest of them that keep Chantal @ Tropical Storm or higher

[Gustywind]

did the low at the surface reform to the north?

No. We have been following the same low all day, despite some confusion from the start of the recon mission earlier.

Let's hope that, the contrary should not be appreciated for those who live in the Leewards

[Annie Oakley]

Anyone have a (projected) Shear graphic/map?

[Janie2006]

Always best to be in the cone early, if you're going to be there at all.y

Peeps in the islands and the Caribbean have to have their eyes peeled, but beyond that several things need to happen for Chantal to remain viable. The hard GFS left? I need many more model runs before I begin nibbling on that bait.

On the other hand, it's been odd so far this summer, so it's not at all impossible.

[ronjon]

:roll:

[img]http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al032013_inten.png

Looks like the NHC is sticking closest to the NVGI model for intensity and tossing the rest of them that keep Chantal @ Tropical Storm or higher

Yeah I'm sure NHC just playing it conservative now with intensity 5 days out. No need to alarm us Floridians at this point, lol! Based on those models, I would expect Chantal to strengthen in the Bahamas.

[Blinhart]

How many people see something like Lily or Andrew here?

[Janie2006]

Always best to be in the cone early, if you're going to be there at all.y

Peeps in the islands and the Caribbean have to have their eyes peeled, but beyond that several things need to happen for Chantal to remain viable. The hard GFS left? I need many more model runs before I begin nibbling on that bait.

On the other hand, it's been odd so far this summer, so it's not at all impossible.

[ROCK]

Anyone have a (projected) Shear graphic/map?

maybe this will help....

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFS/201 ... .anim.html

[ROCK]

How many people see something like Lily or Andrew here?

no model is predicting that type of intensity....

[Kingarabian]

then again, it is moving so fast that it wouldn't surprise me one bit is any mountainous areas it crosses doesn't effect it fast enough to deteriorate it much since it will be back in the water again in the blink of a eye.

Moving fast or not, the mountains will still hit it. It's like saying "Oh, I'm pretty sure that racer won't be affected by those spikes up ahead because he is going way too fast"

[ozonepete]

There's Chantal out there approaching the islands, but look at all of the strong waves behind it (and the other disturbance in front of it off Florida). Very, very intense parade of tropical waves for so early in the season.

[floridasun78]

There's Chantal out there approaching the islands, but look at all of the strong waves behind it (and the other disturbance in front of it off Florida). Very, very intense parade of tropical waves for so early in the season.

nhc drop area by bahamas from outlook

[CrazyC83]

Simply put, Chantal is sitting in a deep ridge so 1012 is a low pressure in the area. If pressures were natural it would be around 997 I would think.

If Chantal gets up to hurricane force, it could do so with a pressure still over 1000.

[ScottNAtlanta]

[Blinhart]

How many people see something like Lily or Andrew here?

no model is predicting that type of intensity....

I guess I should of stated path wise. Intensity is still up in the air