ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[Zanthe]

Yes. Chantal is dying. It's obviously why the NHC keeps increasing the wind speeds and are often lowering the pressure. Seriously, there's no reason to think Chantal is weakening. It really looks like it's strengthening and the NHC agrees with that.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091739
AF302 0203A CHANTAL HDOB 45 20130709
173100 1455N 06247W 9699 00377 0128 +220 +218 066040 040 031 001 00
173130 1456N 06248W 9702 00368 0122 +217 //// 067041 042 031 001 01
173200 1457N 06249W 9699 00372 0122 +218 +217 065041 042 033 001 01
173230 1459N 06250W 9698 00369 0117 +216 +214 064043 043 032 000 01
173300 1500N 06251W 9700 00364 0112 +216 +215 065044 045 034 002 00
173330 1501N 06253W 9701 00364 //// +213 //// 065045 047 035 002 01
173400 1502N 06254W 9698 00370 0120 +213 //// 067046 048 034 001 01
173430 1503N 06255W 9696 00374 0121 +211 //// 065045 046 035 001 01
173500 1504N 06256W 9702 00369 0124 +211 +208 065045 046 036 001 00
173530 1506N 06257W 9695 00379 0126 +208 +207 065048 049 036 002 01
173600 1507N 06258W 9698 00375 0128 +206 //// 066046 047 036 003 01
173630 1508N 06259W 9701 00375 0129 +210 +206 070050 053 038 000 00
173700 1509N 06301W 9699 00379 0130 +208 +203 069050 053 036 003 00
173730 1510N 06302W 9699 00380 0132 +209 +200 068049 052 037 002 00
173800 1512N 06303W 9699 00381 //// +200 //// 071048 049 038 002 01
173830 1513N 06304W 9697 00383 0136 +204 //// 073049 050 038 002 01
173900 1514N 06305W 9702 00383 0137 +213 +194 076059 060 044 002 00
173930 1515N 06306W 9700 00386 0139 +213 +193 078057 060 042 000 00
174000 1517N 06308W 9701 00384 0139 +209 +200 081054 058 043 001 00
174030 1518N 06309W 9709 00378 0139 +222 +197 082051 054 042 001 00

[Aric Dunn]

12z cmc the same.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Borderline Cat 1 into the most unlikely place.. Seems legit

I think David was the last GA hit back in 79

[img]http://i.imgur.com/f8qMHXL.png[/ig]

yeah speaking of david its almost an identical track.

[wxman57]

I'm new here but just one question...is it possible for Chantal to keep moving WNW and completely miss the ridge and not get pulled to the N?

Welcome to the forum, wxwatcher4405. I don't think it's likely that Chantal would continue moving WNW for 5 days. It could certainly move farther west than the current forecast before turning north, though.

[adam0983]

Tropical Storm Chantal winds have increased to 65mph on the 2pm advisory. Does anyone think she has peaked? Just an opinion not a forecast

[docjoe]

All storms in July within 125 miles of Hispaniola.

looking at this map reminds me tomorrow is the anniversary of Dennis hitting Fl. at the time the earliest major on record.....hopefully we dont get a repeat out of this

joe

[artist]

[Stormlover2012]

Lets see what the euro shows and how the ridge is.

[artist]

000
URNT12 KNHC 091746
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032013
A. 09/17:24:10Z
B. 14 deg 42 min N
062 deg 31 min W
C. NA
D. 53 kt
E. 057 deg 30 nm
F. 141 deg 68 kt
G. 057 deg 31 nm
H. EXTRAP 1010 mb
I. 21 C / 370 m
J. 23 C / 364 m
K. 23 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0203A CHANTAL OB 19
MAX FL WIND 77 KT 088/56 16:54:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;

[floridasun78]

http://www.barbadosweather.org/RadarPro ... 250KMCAPPI you see center looking better and closing up every hour from morning to now

[ScottNAtlanta]

Doesnt look like any death is being foretold

[Aric Dunn]

Lets see what the euro shows and how the ridge is.

yeah so far the euro doing good on the large scale evolution... the gfs has been as well till this past run. the euro just has not been able to either resolve chantal or just is being initialized wrong... I dont the euro is going to fill in the upper low...

[artist]

VDM

[Evil Jeremy]

ECMWF Initialized:

[Aric Dunn]

not bad looking on radar.

[floridasun78]

Doesnt look like any death is being foretold

only one take it too hurr other close to hurr

[Weatherboy1]

I think what is noteworthy is that GFS, CMC, GFDL, NAVGEM, etc. all showing some ridging rebuilding in a few days and shunting Chantal off to the west. It's just a question of where the turn starts after the jog to the NW/NNW, angle of the turn, duration of the westward move, etc. Unless I'm missing something, there are basically no models at this point showing a recurve scenario. So assuming Chantal holds together if/when she hits Hispanola, there's a good chance someone in the SE will have to deal with her. I wouldn't be surprised in the least if the 5 p.m. or 11 p.m. NHC track shows a sharper bend to the west.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091749
AF302 0203A CHANTAL HDOB 46 20130709
174100 1519N 06310W 9702 00384 0138 +226 +194 078049 051 038 002 00
174130 1520N 06311W 9702 00386 0140 +226 +195 077050 052 039 002 00
174200 1521N 06312W 9709 00383 0141 +226 +203 071046 051 040 002 00
174230 1523N 06314W 9701 00390 0143 +220 +207 074045 046 034 003 00
174300 1524N 06315W 9694 00402 0148 +219 +209 070043 044 036 001 00
174330 1525N 06316W 9699 00398 0148 +225 +205 068040 043 033 001 03
174400 1526N 06317W 9425 00642 0144 +209 +192 072043 046 /// /// 03
174430 1528N 06318W 9042 01001 0144 +188 +167 079047 048 /// /// 03
174500 1529N 06320W 8593 01436 0142 +166 +152 085049 051 /// /// 03
174530 1530N 06321W 8180 01854 0137 +148 +131 082047 049 /// /// 03
174600 1532N 06322W 7798 02265 0137 +130 +104 085046 047 /// /// 03
174630 1533N 06323W 7489 02610 0138 +112 +087 092047 048 035 002 00
174700 1535N 06325W 7149 03002 0127 +100 +084 081043 048 037 000 03
174730 1536N 06326W 6968 03223 0140 +085 +072 081039 042 034 000 00
174800 1538N 06328W 6963 03232 0144 +084 +071 081040 040 035 002 00
174830 1540N 06329W 6966 03229 0152 +080 +074 082042 043 030 002 00
174900 1542N 06330W 6972 03223 0156 +079 +066 083040 042 027 002 00
174930 1544N 06332W 6966 03232 0149 +084 +064 085037 039 029 002 03
175000 1546N 06334W 6967 03232 0155 +082 +067 085039 040 028 000 00
175030 1547N 06335W 6970 03230 0155 +082 +066 087038 039 028 002 00
$$

I believe they are headed home

[Aric Dunn]

ECMWF Initialized:

[img]http://img534.imageshack.us/img534/9996/51va.gif[/ig]

lol the euro finally has something initialized for chantal

[adam0983]

I completely agree with you there is no model at this time showing this storm going out to see. I have never seen a storm move so fast for so long and stay intact.