#14585 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 11, 2013 5:11 am
Good morning. Good weather will prevail today with only isolated showers.The weather will be more rainy next week as troughs and Tropical Waves move thru.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST THU JUL 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A GENERALLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A DENSE
AREA OF SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY...PRODUCING HAZY SKIES AND SOME AREAS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS CLOUDINESS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC. DRIER WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND
FRIDAY AS A DENSE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL REGION.
THEREFORE...EXPECT HAZY SKIES AND RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER PATTERN
OVER PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HIGH RESOLUTION WRF-NMM AS WELL AS NAM-DNG5 SUGGEST THAT THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE LOCALIZED OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE...
BECAUSE THE SEA BREEZE CYCLE SHOULD DOMINATE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY.
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A WETTER SOLUTION AS THE TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...TUTT...RELOCATES NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA
AND INDUCE AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. THEN...A TROPICAL
WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...BOTH FEATURES WILL BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW TERMINALS TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH AT LEAST 11/16Z...HOWEVER SAHARAN DUST WILL LIKELY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO AS LOW AS 7 TO 10 MILES AT THE SFC. AFT 16Z EXPECT
SHRA/TSRA IN SOUTHWEST INTERIOR PR ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
EXTENDING WEST TO NEAR TJMZ FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND LIKELY
MVFR CIGS AT TJMZ WITH PASSING VSBYS AS LOW AS 2 SM. WINDS ALOFT E
10 TO 20 KT BUT TURNING NE AFT 11/18Z. SFC WINDS DOMINATED BY SEA
BREEZES OF 10 TO 20 KT 11/14-11/21Z. LOW CIGS REPORTED AT TIST AND
TISX MAY BE RESULT OF INSTRUMENT SENSITIVITY TO SAHARAN DUST.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TODAY.
NEARSHORE BUOYS OVERNIGHT SHOWED SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS
AROUND 15 KTS. A DENSE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SOME
AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 86 76 / 10 20 20 40
STT 88 78 87 78 / 10 20 20 30
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