ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 7/1/13 update

Nino 3.4 warmed a little bit up to -0.1C but the Nino 3 and 1+2 areas are way below 3.4.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

Australian Update of 7/2/13

No El Nino on sight anytime soon according to the Aussies,In fact,Weak La Nina can't be ruled out.

ENSO neutral; a negative IOD likely for southern winter-spring
Issued on Tuesday 2 July 2013 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

The majority of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators have remained neutral since mid-2012. While the surface waters of the eastern Pacific have cooled recently, they are not supported by equally cool waters beneath the surface. Hence climate models suggest a neutral ENSO pattern will persist into the austral spring. However, the development of La Niña in 2013 cannot be totally ruled out yet.

In the tropical Indian Ocean, the current sea surface temperature pattern is typical of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event, and hence the IOD index has been below −0.4 °C since mid-May. If this index remains at, or below, −0.4 °C until mid-to-late July, then 2013 will be classified as a negative IOD year. All climate models surveyed predict a negative IOD during the southern winter-spring period.

Monthly sea surface temperatures:
The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for May shows cool SST anomalies across the eastern tropical Pacific and along part of the coast of Peru in South America, a cooling compared with April. SST anomalies are near-average across the majority of the remaining tropical Pacific and warm anomalies continue across the Maritime Continent region.

Climate Models:
Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to remain neutral until at least the southern hemisphere spring, however the Bureau of Meteorology's model suggests there is a small chance of weak La Niña conditions forming during the winter months.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[cycloneye]

El Nino will not be around for a long time if the model projections are right.

[NDG]

On this week's ENSO update, Nino 3.4 has gone back down to -0.2 deg C.
No sign of an EL Nino for sure.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

Definitely no signs of it at the sub-surface either. SOI remains positive (30 and 90 days consistently). Fairly confident ENSO will remain neutral for the rest of this year, the best chance at warming has come and gone with the last MJO wave and now we are likely to enter down-welling phase for the next month or so.

Only changes may be the PDO values. Even though there was a positive reading last go round it wasn't much, and with such mixed signals regarding SST's over the northern hemisphere still doesn't provide encouragement for significant ENSO changes. Even this signal doesn't favor La Nina or El Nino, we are about as neutral as it gets.

[Ntxw]

After a brief stint at a + reading the PDO has come out for June and fell sharply to -0.78 which is the coldest so far this year. This seems to be so as the warm NE PAC waters have shifted to be warmest in the north-central PAC. This further solidifies no El Nino and even warm-neutral appears unlikely.

[cycloneye]

The warm pool that was in the subsurface in the EastCentral Pacific is almost gone.

June 24:



July 10

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center July update

This update seals the deal in terms of not having El Nino in the peak months of ASO.

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2013.

During June 2013, below-average sea surface temperatures (SST) prevailed in the eastern Pacific, while near-average SSTs persisted across the rest of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). This ENSO-neutral pattern was also reflected in the Niño indices, which were warmer than -0.5oC in Niño-4 and Niño-3.4 and cooler than -0.5oC in Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 during the month (Fig. 2). Meanwhile, the oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) anomalies increased during June (Fig. 3), due to the emergence of above-average subsurface temperatures in the eastern half of the Pacific (Fig. 4). Across the equatorial Pacific, the low-level winds remained near average, while weak upper-level westerly anomalies persisted in the central Pacific. Convection remained enhanced over Indonesia and weakly suppressed near the International Date Line (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic conditions were consistent with ENSO-neutral.

Most model forecasts continue to indicate ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5oC and 0.5oC) into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2013-14. The statistical model forecasts remain cooler in the Niño-3.4 region relative to the dynamical models forecasts (Fig. 6). The forecast consensus favors ENSO-neutral (near 60% or greater) into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2013 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

[cycloneye]

The latest ESPI numbers are -180 that means a continuation of Neutral conditions for the next few months.

http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

[cycloneye]

Nino 3.4 continues to hover in the Neutral area mainly in the cold side.Notice a small mountain by late June and that rise was caused by the kelvin wave that the strong MJO pulse brought. But with the wave gone,the waters are not warming but staying the same as before the wave moved over 3.4.The question is when will El Nino come to the Pacific since it has been since 2009 the last time it was present and that long absence is not usual. Here are all the ENSO regions:

Nino 1+2:



Nino 3:



Nino 3.4:



Nino 4:

[Kingarabian]

It had a real good chance to come last year... But it was a bust.

[cycloneye]

The holdout model ECMWF that was the only one to have El Nino for ASO period has gone down to Neutral in the July update.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 7/15/13 update

Nino 3.4 goes down to -0.4C from the -0.2C that was last week.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[NDG]

The holdout model ECMWF that was the only one to have El Nino for ASO period has gone down to Neutral in the July update.

http://oi43.tinypic.com/wce99c.jpg

Once again, this year the ECMWF has not done well with forecasting the ENSO, in another words it was warm bias all along.

[cycloneye]

Update from the Aussies call for Neutral thru the fall.

ENSO neutral; negative IOD
Issued on Tuesday 16 July 2013 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

The tropical Pacific remains El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral. The cooling trend observed in the eastern Pacific during June has reversed in the past fortnight, with temperatures now generally closer to average than they were in early July. Most climate models suggest a neutral ENSO pattern will persist at least into the austral spring.

In the tropical Indian Ocean, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is in progress, with the IOD index below −0.4 °C since mid-May. The majority of climate models surveyed predict this event to persist through the southern winter-spring period.

A negative IOD during winter-spring increases the chances of above-average rainfall over southern Australia, and over parts of northern Australia it increases the chance of higher humidity. The northwest cloudbands which tracked across Australia over the past month or two are examples of how a negative IOD can influence southern Australia.

Weekly sea surface temperatures:
Compared to two weeks ago, negative SST anomalies have weakened in the eastern equatorial Pacific and adjacent to the coast of Peru. Cool anomalies are now also seen in the subsurface of the far eastern equatorial Pacific, which wasn’t so two weeks ago (refer to the weekly sub-surface map in the following section). Warm anomalies have been slightly reduced around the Maritime Continent and near the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). The map for the week ending 14 July shows anomalies are near average across the central tropical Pacific.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[cycloneye]

The mid July graphic of all ENSO models show Neutral thru the end of 2013.

[cycloneye]

The ESPI data is way negative meaning Neutral to La Nina conditions for the next few weeks.

http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html

[ninel conde]

SOI +40.9 today

[Yellow Evan]

This is likely too early to ask this, but what are the odds of an El Nino next year?