Global model runs discussion

Stormlover2012 · #5221 Postby **Stormlover2012** » Fri Jul 19, 2013 9:54 pm

240 hrs out I don't trust any model lol

HurricaneTracker2031 · #5222 Postby **HurricaneTracker2031** » Fri Jul 19, 2013 11:18 pm

Hello,
This past few runs are showing this Tropical system.... I think it may have a chance. What u think?
:?:

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

HurricaneTracker2031 · #5223 Postby **HurricaneTracker2031** » Fri Jul 19, 2013 11:19 pm

Stormlover2012 wrote:240 hrs out I don't trust any model lol

Agreed. It more unreliable to use models that far out.

HurricaneTracker2031 · #5224 Postby **HurricaneTracker2031** » Fri Jul 19, 2013 11:22 pm

GFS shows a 1010mb low in 00z Run July 20 2013.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Hurricane Alexis · #5225 Postby **Hurricane Alexis** » Fri Jul 19, 2013 11:46 pm

The GFS is like a rollercoaster. No consistency at all.

#5226 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Jul 20, 2013 5:49 am

6Z GFS has a massive hurricane striking New England. It is the same wave that moves off of the COA in a few days

The 18Z yesterday may have started a trend in the model regarding development. Canadian also tries to develop it but is less aggressive

#5227 Postby **Blown Away** » Sat Jul 20, 2013 6:52 am

6z GFS has a cane that hits the NE Caribbean, recurves well east of SE CONUS, and hits NE CONUS area...Looks like EC trough in place to weaken ridge...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

Stormlover2012 · #5228 Postby **Stormlover2012** » Sat Jul 20, 2013 7:39 am

Lol that far out means its going to hit California lol.

#5229 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jul 20, 2013 8:10 am

the 00Z CMC develops the system also. Some 00Z images:

#5230 Postby **SFLcane** » Sat Jul 20, 2013 8:12 am

Blown Away wrote:6z GFS has a cane that hits the NE Caribbean, recurves well east of SE CONUS, and hits NE CONUS area...Looks like EC trough in place to weaken ridge...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

Yea whats new..last previous seasons have featured pretty substantial ridging across the atlantic only to be replaced by the all familiar eastcoast trof as we get into meat of the season.

#5231 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jul 20, 2013 8:19 am

SFLcane wrote:
Blown Away wrote:6z GFS has a cane that hits the NE Caribbean, recurves well east of SE CONUS, and hits NE CONUS area...Looks like EC trough in place to weaken ridge...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

Yea whats new..last previous seasons have featured pretty substantial ridging across the atlantic only to be replaced by the all familiar eastcoast trof as we get into meat of the season.

The 00Z ECMWF shows a large trough over Eastern North America at 240 hours. Look at this large winter-like low just offshore New England and associated cold front that extends deep into the SE United States all the way to Northern Florida. But it is far out right now so too early to say what the steering would be. Let's just see if this system develops first

#5232 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Sat Jul 20, 2013 9:27 am

Yeah, there has been talk for the past few days up here (Caribou ME forecast discussion) of a 'nor'easter' type low effecting the area by next weekend. After all the heat, most people around these parts are actually kind of looking forward to it lol.

#5233 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jul 20, 2013 9:43 am

06Z GFS confirms it - a hurricane strike in just over 2 weeks. Somewhere between the southern Bay of Campeche and New England ;-)

#5234 Postby **SFLcane** » Sat Jul 20, 2013 9:46 am

wxman57 wrote:06Z GFS confirms it - a hurricane strike in just over 2 weeks. Somewhere between the southern Bay of Campeche and New England

There you are Mr! How about you give us a 2 week outlook on how steering looks like?

Hurricaneman · #5235 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sat Jul 20, 2013 10:17 am

wxman57 wrote:06Z GFS confirms it - a hurricane strike in just over 2 weeks. Somewhere between the southern Bay of Campeche and New England

What I get from this post is that you cant be sure whats going to happen 2 weeks away, but IMO we should know some time next Monday where this feature is going, how strong it is, and the Ridge\trough positions aka steering

jinftl · #5236 Postby **jinftl** » Sat Jul 20, 2013 10:32 am

Until the 12Z GFS drops the feature :wink:

Any sense of multiple models picking up on this with some consistency or too speculative and far out for that to come into play? More than the where and how strong, if models are starting to see activity that may be the most we can take from it now

wxman57 wrote:06Z GFS confirms it - a hurricane strike in just over 2 weeks. Somewhere between the southern Bay of Campeche and New England

HurricaneTracker2031 · #5237 Postby **HurricaneTracker2031** » Sat Jul 20, 2013 10:34 am

GFS 06z July 20 2013 shows that system nearing land... IMO... This is worth watching.

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

#5238 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 20, 2013 11:09 am

Let's post the model runs for the African system in the thread for that area to not have two threads with members posting runs for the same area.

:darrow:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115249&p=2321431#p2321431

KatDaddy · #5239 Postby **KatDaddy** » Sat Jul 20, 2013 5:51 pm

Pondering the pattern for most active part of hurricane season. Hope I am wrong but I see the GOM wide open. Moisture has moved WNW across the GOM for several weeks. Ridge forecast to build back in next week but how strong is the question. Be ready TX and LA.

CYCLONE MIKE · #5240 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Sat Jul 20, 2013 6:52 pm

Ridge forecast to build in during the week only to weaken as a weak front tries to slide in for the weekend. So anything will be shunted off to the north before reaching the states. Don't see the gulf in a bad position this season. Either the Bermuda high is ridiculously strong and will send whatever storms that may come into mexico or the weekly persistant east coast trof will recurve them north.

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