ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Riptide]

Dorian making a run at Category 2...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ics_52.png

[jhpigott]

GFS on steroids

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ics_51.png

What does 987mb on a global model like GFS translate to in actual pressure? I thought I read somewhere (execuse my ignorance ) that the global models don't handle sea level pressure all that well for tropical systems?

[abajan]

If this was September this may be like hurricane ike in terms of track

Why do you think that?

The models show a northerly track and then a bend west with a strong ridge and that's what ike did

That's quite similar to what Hurricane Luis did before slamming into the Leeward Islands in 1995.

[Hurricaneman]

GFS on steroids

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ics_51.png

What does 987mb on a global model like GFS translate to in actual pressure? I thought I read somewhere (execuse my ignorance ) that the global models don't handle sea level pressure all that well for tropical systems?

This version of the model is translated through a higher resolution gridding so that may end up being a more accurate depiction of Dorian than the regular GFS resolution depiction

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[jhpigott]

GFS on steroids

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ics_51.png

What does 987mb on a global model like GFS translate to in actual pressure? I thought I read somewhere (execuse my ignorance ) that the global models don't handle sea level pressure all that well for tropical systems?

This version of the model is translated through a higher resolution gridding so that may end up being a more accurate depiction of Dorian than the regular GFS resolution depiction

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

gotcha, thanks.

[weatherwindow]

Is this heading towards any bouys, because if so we could get a more accurate depiction of strength because of its small size

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

some candidates
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041
4101..approx 14.3 46.2...Dorian will pass well to the north however will provide ground data as to storm dimensions

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41nt0
41NT0...approx 14.5 51.1...again well to the north

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41100
41100...approx 15.5 57.5....unfortunately no recent obs, malfunction?....a bit closer but still well outside the prospective outer isobar
It would appear that Dorian, altho well behaved, will pass well outside the perview of the array of buoys east of the Leewards..However, they may provide some suggestions as to storm dimensions and broad structure...Grtz from KW, Rich

[SunnyThoughts]

[quote="ROCK"]06Z NAVGEM.....uh FL you need to pay attention to Dorian.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical[/quot


Arggggg...avoids all land and maybe even shoots through the straits between Fla and Cuba..Looks as though Many folks need to keep an eye out. Hopefully shear keeps him in check.

[thetruesms]

GFS on steroids

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ics_51.png

What does 987mb on a global model like GFS translate to in actual pressure? I thought I read somewhere (execuse my ignorance ) that the global models don't handle sea level pressure all that well for tropical systems?

This version of the model is translated through a higher resolution gridding so that may end up being a more accurate depiction of Dorian than the regular GFS resolution depiction

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

This grid spacing is ~27 kilometers, so better than the ~40km spacing, but if it's a small core, still may not capture it fully.

[tolakram]

Simulated IR sat image from the GFS:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

From this page: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/

[CrazyC83]

Dvorak tends to do poorly with small storms as well. I would guess it might be closer to 55-60 kt.

[Riptide]

Close call on the GFS in regards to the recurve...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ics_61.png

[tolakram]

12Z GFS loop: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

So we go from weak TS and now to what looks like the first legitimate CV hurricane of the year. Intensity forecasting is horrible, of course, so right now this is all entertainment only.

[artist]

latest Dvorak image -

[Frank2]

It's already nearing 15N so am not convinced of that early westward forecast track, especially considering the large ULL is forecast to remain north of Puerto Rico for the reminder of the forecast period...

Also, since it's strengthening very very far to the east it's also more likely to be a recurving (fish) system (almost all strengthening systems at 15N, 30W recurved)...

P.S. Whatever you do, do not listen to the hype nonsense on TWC concerning hurricane season - mostly done for ratings and advertising revenue (I wish AccuWeather had their own all-weather cable channel)...

[SunnyThoughts]

Close call on the GFS in regards to the recurve...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ics_61.png

Yeah, recurve gonna depend on that ridge for sure and how strong it is, or whether there is a weakness somewhere in order to turn him.

[Riptide]

Close call on the GFS in regards to the recurve...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ics_61.png

Yeah, recurve gonna depend on that ridge for sure and how strong it is, or whether there is a weakness somewhere in order to turn him.

Could hit the Carolinas or the NE Coast even if it recurves in this pattern as forecasted by the GFS.

[torrea40]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1h
Loop of Dorian rolling west.. tiny storm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html …

[tolakram]

16:15Z

[Riptide]

Classic spiral banding, reminds me of Hurricane Hugo but obviously not the same intensity.

[SunnyThoughts]

Close call on the GFS in regards to the recurve...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ics_61.png

Yeah, recurve gonna depend on that ridge for sure and how strong it is, or whether there is a weakness somewhere in order to turn him.

Could hit the Carolinas or the NE Coast even if it recurves in this pattern as forecasted by the GFS.[/quote

I totally agree, interesting 10 days or so ahead. At this point, everybody needs to watch as usual.