TD14 - DISCUSSION

[AussieMark]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 092037
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2003

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE AREA NORTHEAST OF THE
ILL-DEFINED CENTER...HOWEVER THIS CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED AND
DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT INCREASED. THUS THE MAXIMUM WIND
ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 30 KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SITUATED ON THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH....WHICH HAS BEEN CREATING
AN ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY LESS HOSTILE PATTERN...WITH MORE UPPER-AIR
RIDGING OVER THE SYSTEM...IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST INDICATES JUST A LITTLE STRENGTHENING...AS IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGES.

CENTER FIXES ARE AS MUCH AS 125 N MI APART...SO THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 330/11 IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THIS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. THE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION...TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE U.K. MET OFFICE AND GFS TRACKS. THE
NOGAPS MODEL WEAKENS THE CYCLONE...AND TAKES IT FARTHER TO THE WEST
THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE.

THE AREAS OF CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2100Z 14.1N 25.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 15.9N 26.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 18.0N 27.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 20.0N 28.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 22.0N 30.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 25.0N 32.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 13/1800Z 28.0N 34.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 14/1800Z 30.0N 35.5W 35 KT