ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

06z GFS...Landfall SFL
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

[N2FSU]

Doesn't quite make the crossover on this run.

[meriland23]

N2FSU.. look at hr 300

[SFLcane]

Up the spine of florida just about on this run. Interesting times ahead

[SFLcane]

06z GFS is completely bonkers.. doesn't even really recurve.. rides up along side the northern part of the major island's and then hits SE FL and just continues to move NW

Nothing bonkers at all actually from the GFS track is actually very possible. Plenty of time to watch

[hurricanefloyd5]

does anyone have the data from the models for Google Earth

[meriland23]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... t_atl.html

[jlauderdal]

06z GFS is completely bonkers.. doesn't even really recurve.. rides up along side the northern part of the major island's and then hits SE FL and just continues to move NW

why is that a crazy run...all its doing is riding the base of a ridge that weakens over times, that's what tropical systems do, they get steered by the ridge and usually find a weakness or they get buried in land and die

[jlauderdal]

Gooood morning Dorian. Fired up? Ready to go?
http://img22.imageshack.us/img22/5707/dkeq.jpg

looks good from space, interesting times ahead for this system, nhc doesnt have a handle on the shear pattern per their disco so really anything could happen but nobody can argue it looks good on sat this morning

[meriland23]

06z GFS is completely bonkers.. doesn't even really recurve.. rides up along side the northern part of the major island's and then hits SE FL and just continues to move NW

why is that a crazy run...all its doing is riding the base of a ridge that weakens over times, that's what tropical systems do, they get steered by the ridge and usually find a weakness or they get buried in land and die

Bonkers in comparison to last run lol.. not in general. It goes to SE FL .. rides up the center of it, moves west, then south in the north central GOM, then over to the right again into NW FL/GA

[TheStormExpert]

Is the 6z GFS now just as good as the other runs (0z,12z,18z)? A few years back I thought I heard it was the worst in terms of data with the 0z being the best?

[ronjon]

Here's why Dorian moves NW into S FL on the 06z GFS run. The GFS shows a 600 dm mid-level ridge in 5 days in the SW Atlantic that pushes the storm toward the W-SW and keeps it at a low enough latitude that it misses the weak trough moving through the mid-atlantic states that allowed a recuve in earlier runs. We'll just have to see how this pattern evolves in the coming days to gain more confidence on the final track.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013072506/gfs_z500_mslp_atltropics_40.png

[jlauderdal]

06z GFS is completely bonkers.. doesn't even really recurve.. rides up along side the northern part of the major island's and then hits SE FL and just continues to move NW

why is that a crazy run...all its doing is riding the base of a ridge that weakens over times, that's what tropical systems do, they get steered by the ridge and usually find a weakness or they get buried in land and die

Bonkers in comparison to last run lol.. not in general. It goes to SE FL .. rides up the center of it, moves west, then south in the north central GOM, then over to the right again into NW FL/GA

kind of crazy but its possible...ridge then a weakness, ridge builds back in and finally trough ejects out to the NE..


long way out so the chances of all this happening are low

[TheStormExpert]

06z GFS is completely bonkers.. doesn't even really recurve.. rides up along side the northern part of the major island's and then hits SE FL and just continues to move NW

Nothing bonkers at all actually from the GFS track is actually very possible. Plenty of time to watch

I thought yesterday you were saying the chances of SFL/FL getting hit were kind of on the low side?

[RL3AO]

The new GFS remains east of Florida

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php? ... imageSize=

remember, the 6Z run was the final run of the current GFS. The new GFS is now the operational GFS effective 12Z

Well, it was one hell of a final run.

[TheShrimper]

Same old waiting game. Come early next week when Dorian is approaching the SE Bahamas, the steering currents will be more refined. Much too early now. TheShrimper.

[RL3AO]

Is the 6z GFS now just as good as the other runs (0z,12z,18z)? A few years back I thought I heard it was the worst in terms of data with the 0z being the best?

Its a myth that the 6/18z runs are "worse". Most of the data comes from sources other than weather balloons.

[jlauderdal]

06z GFS...Landfall SFL
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

how many times have we been hit on model runs, wilma 2005 last time we were actually hit and that was from the west of all places..one of these days though.. BAM POW SMACKED...

[tolakram]

Seems to me it all depends on the strength of Dorian. Stronger goes north, weaker stays south. Going to be an interesting couple of days.

[TheStormExpert]

Is the 6z GFS now just as good as the other runs (0z,12z,18z)? A few years back I thought I heard it was the worst in terms of data with the 0z being the best?

Its a myth that the 6/18z runs are "worse". Most of the data comes from sources other than weather balloons.

Are you saying the 6z is just as good as the rest?