ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

06z GFS is completely bonkers.. doesn't even really recurve.. rides up along side the northern part of the major island's and then hits SE FL and just continues to move NW

why is that a crazy run...all its doing is riding the base of a ridge that weakens over times, that's what tropical systems do, they get steered by the ridge and usually find a weakness or they get buried in land and die

Bonkers in comparison to last run lol.. not in general. It goes to SE FL .. rides up the center of it, moves west, then south in the north central GOM, then over to the right again into NW FL/GA

You have to remember you are looking at model runs that are in the long-range still, which generally are not that reliable.

Not a surprise at all we are seeing some shifting back and forth with the models.

This system is still a couple thousand miles away from the United States East Coast!

[KWT]

Yeah a slight north shift, but not the type that will likely make a huge deal of difference down the line I'd have thought.

It'll be interesting to see what the 12z models do with this system later on...

[northjaxpro]

The northern shift this morning with the models is a good sign for curving east of the Bahamas right now, But, this can and will likely change wth the runs as time progresses.

Oh, the fascinating ritual of model watching! It never gets dull that's for sure.

[KWT]

There is a hint of curving northwards, but its really no-where near major enough in terms of an obvious trend right now to be all that confident about it...long way to go yet folks!

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Looking at the long range setup. I still feel the strike point, if there even is one, will be roughly from Cape Hatteras to points north.

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[NDG]

Latest guidance, more consensus and a northern shift which the NHC does mention in the 5AM EST discussion:

Isn't these the 06z run? Because the 12z run looks like they have shifted back south and west.

[otowntiger]

That model sure puts Jax in the crosshairs....actually....it scrapes the whole east coast of Florida. That would be a very bad scenario were that to pan out!

Yes, but only if it had any kind of intensity, which is a huge wild card among many other as yet to be determined factors relating to course as well. But you are right if this scenario played out with Dorian being a significant storm it would be quite the headline maker.

My guess is this storm will turn well before Florida or the east coast in general. I think wxman57 pointed out yesterday that over the last several decades (or century - can't remember the time frame) that of the 50 some odd storms that formed in this vicinity only 6 affected a major land mass. In other words the vast majority or 44 out of 50+ or over 88% of these systems become 'fish'.

[NDG]

More GFS ensembles members continue to shift westward ever since yesterday's 12z run.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

06z GFS at 186 hrs has a 1008 mb system approaching to make a US landfall

[ronjon]

Yeah the 12z suite of guidance shifted back more SW. The models appear to be windshield wipering now because we're looking out basically 7 days. We'll need a couple more days to sort out the upper level pattern. The key to the track forecast to me is the strength of the mid-level high in the central and southwest Atlantic in 5 days and the timing/sharpness of the wave moving through the northeast/mid-atlantic states. If the ridge is stronger and the wave fairly zonal and weak, then a FL and/or GOM track is a possibility. If the wave is stronger or more amplified, then Dorian will recurve somewhere off the US east coast. Still much too early to know.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Agreed

[wxman57]

A little climo from the Coastal Services Center website. Question - how many storms of the past which passed within 65NM of Dorian's current position reached the Caribbean or the Gulf? Answer - zero. A recurve near the Bahamas looks most likely, but I'd pay close attention in Florida. My money currently is on the Carolinas.

[RL3AO]

Agree with you that Carolina's seems the most likely US impact if there is one.




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Blown Away]

12z...Tightly clustered

12z Intensity Models...Most keep Dorian as a TS, doesn't appear like a scenerio for a big Cane...

[ronjon]

Yes I generally agree wxman57 but the strength of the mid-level ridge looks anonymously high compared to normal which tends to discount the importance of climatology stats.

[RL3AO]

Waiting for the 12z runs from the globals. Will they continue this westward path from the past run or two?

[tailgater]

Looks like some weakening might occur in the short term.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html
Structure still looks good but he might be sucking in some drier stable air.

[RL3AO]

12z Intensity Models...Most keep Dorian as a TS, doesn't appear like a scenerio for a big Cane...

On the other hand, most of the models had this still as a wave 36 hours ago.

[northjaxpro]

Thanks wxman for the graphic. That graphic pretty much tells the story for climatology at this point of the season.

Everyone is referencing Hurricane Bertha in 1996 and the track she took as one Dorian could follow. That sees very reasonable to use as a benchmark right now, but, you never know. Stranger things have happened and can happen out there, so will just have to keep monitoring.

[KWT]

Yep that is a decent tight cluster from those models, and pretty much once again along the offical forecast.

Anyway not long until the 12z dynamic suite starts to come out, pretty sure it won't be much different from the trend displayed of it heading close to the Bahamas.