ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[floridasun78]

Whether this pops some convection tonight or not the overall environment just ahead is nasty. 30-40kts of shear

nhc say less shear ahead BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE
CIRCULATION IS MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
LESSEN..http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/re ... 0232.shtml

[ozonepete]

Could be the change to the northerly flow maybe be helping to push some of that mid to upper level moisture to the north of it down.. which would explain maybe why only the northern quad has developed convection..

Very good observation and analysis Aric. Here's your proof, the mid-level water vapor. The last of the dry air is now pushed down to the south. But then Dorian will have to eat all of this remaining dry air first before it can fire up all the way around the center. Not impossible considering the very warm SSTs and rapidly dropping shear.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, I imagine you already have seen this, but check out the WV loop of Dorian?! Talk about "breaking through the cap"?? That bomb that just went off over the center is popping in some seriously crazy dry air; must be some warmer octane SST for that air to pop like it did.

actually read back a few posts of mine. but yeah the ssts are getting warming thus increasing the difference in surface heat and cooler air aloft causes more lift also night time cooling helps.

[ozonepete]

Aric, I imagine you already have seen this, but check out the WV loop of Dorian?! Talk about "breaking through the cap"?? That bomb that just went off over the center is popping in some seriously crazy dry air; must be some warmer octane SST for that air to pop like it did.

Ha, I posted my note to Aric while you posted this. Yep you are right. It has enough atmospheric juice now to ingest the dry air and keep going, apparently.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, I imagine you already have seen this, but check out the WV loop of Dorian?! Talk about "breaking through the cap"?? That bomb that just went off over the center is popping in some seriously crazy dry air; must be some warmer octane SST for that air to pop like it did.

Ha, I posted while you posted this. Yep you are right. It has enough atmospheric juice now to ingest the dry air and keep going, apparently.

Could be the change to the northerly flow maybe be helping to push some of that mid to upper level moisture to the north of it down.. which would explain maybe why only the northern quad has developed convection..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[ozonepete]

Wow these posts are turning over too fast for me after a few beers, lol. Did you see my mid-level water vapor post, Aric?

[boca]

I have a question is because the convection is popping would that indicate that Dorian might survive longer and come back to life because of the ssts are warming

[floridasun78]

I have a question is because the convection is popping would that indicate that Dorian might survive longer and come back to life because of the ssts are warming

BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE
CIRCULATION IS MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS

[ozonepete]

I have a question is because the convection is popping would that indicate that Dorian might survive longer and come back to life because of the ssts are warming

Yeah, that's what we're saying in the last few posts. The SSTs warming and shear dropping.

[Aric Dunn]

Wow these posts are turning over too fast for me after a few beers, lol. Did you see my mid-level water vapor post, Aric?

no lol

[floridasun78]

looking at Dorian Long Floater - Infrared Channel 4 Imagery Loop some shear coming from se most storm north and west of CIRCULATION

[ozonepete]

Lol, it's about 9 or 10 posts back near the end of the last page. I posted proof of your theory. Go look.

[Aric Dunn]

another image in continuing to explode.. center completly covered.. convection expanding.. and wrapping around to south side with -70 tops now

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[ozonepete]

Blowing up rapidly, amazingly quick recovery appears to be going on:

[boca]

It is blowing up nicely and it had to slow down as well

[Aric Dunn]

Blowing up rapidly, amazingly quick recovery appears to be going on:

circ dead center in middle of convection...

[chaser1]

I have a question is because the convection is popping would that indicate that Dorian might survive longer and come back to life because of the ssts are warming

"very well could"; its a tight balancing act. One one hand you've already got the spin and regardless the dynamics that might help drive convection, maintaining any newly developing vertical column is difficult enough while being impacted by anything more than light vertical shear. Added instability (to its vertical structure that is) by any intrusion of dry air, makes it that much harder to maintain that convection and in turn maintaining its own vertical integrety. Lesson one of the variables (less upper level shear, or slower forward motion, or an moister air mass) and that helps Dorian live to see another day.

[Aric Dunn]

Could be the change to the northerly flow maybe be helping to push some of that mid to upper level moisture to the north of it down.. which would explain maybe why only the northern quad has developed convection..

Very good observation and analysis Aric. Here's your proof, the mid-level water vapor. The last of the dry air is now pushed down to the south. But then Dorian will have to eat all of this remaining dry air first before it can fire up all the way around the center. Not impossible considering the very warm SSTs and rapidly dropping shear.

[img]http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174/philnyc_2007/wvmid2013-07-270300_zps6bc927f5.jpg[/mg]

yeah look at the loop....you can see that large amount of dry that it ingested early this morning it moved north of all that and should pass it bye.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... vmid5.html

[boca]

I have a question is because the convection is popping would that indicate that Dorian might survive longer and come back to life because of the ssts are warming

"very well could"; its a tight balancing act. One one hand you've already got the spin and regardless the dynamics that might help drive convection, maintaining any newly developing vertical column is difficult enough while being impacted by anything more than light vertical shear. Added instability (to its vertical structure that is) by any intrusion of dry air, makes it that much harder to maintain that convection and in turn maintaining its own vertical integrety. Lesson one of the variables (less upper level shear, or slower forward motion, or an moister air mass) and that helps Dorian live to see another day.[/quote

Also the fact that Dorian is so small to begin with if it was larger it wouldn't be affected as much with dry air and the shear

[chaser1]

Aric, I imagine you already have seen this, but check out the WV loop of Dorian?! Talk about "breaking through the cap"?? That bomb that just went off over the center is popping in some seriously crazy dry air; must be some warmer octane SST for that air to pop like it did.

Ha, I posted my note to Aric while you posted this. Yep you are right. It has enough atmospheric juice now to ingest the dry air and keep going, apparently.

Jeez, your not kidding though about the "rapid fire" posts LOL. By the time I start to respond to a post, go to the fridge, and come back....Aric has yet another tower bursting over a different quadrant of this storm