2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

[ninel conde]

thanks. if im reading it right its well below normal as i would suspect based on the absence of any convection in the atlantic.

Tropical Atlantic & Caribbean currently have below-normal instability, due to sinking air in the region. However, the Gulf is more unstable than normal. Model projections are for instability to increase in the Caribbean/Atlantic in 7-10 days.

i will keep checking. i saw the 10 day euro and it has very high pressures over the tropical atlantic.

[wxman57]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 19h

Attn @AndyRevkin Exceptionally dry air in mid/upper trop over tropics killing global ace so far ..less than 70% of normal!

is this exceptionally dry air something thats seasonal and not likely to change, or can it flip to moist in a week or 2?

Of course it'll change. Check out this animation on Levi Cowen's page. Assume the brown regions are the dry/sinking air and the green areas are rising air/tstms. Note that the brown over the Atlantic today changes to green in a week or so:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... lobal.html

[gatorcane]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 19h

Attn @AndyRevkin Exceptionally dry air in mid/upper trop over tropics killing global ace so far ..less than 70% of normal!

is this exceptionally dry air something thats seasonal and not likely to change, or can it flip to moist in a week or 2?

Most definitely the tropics can change very quickly as fast as a week or two. Climatology suggests we will see a gradual ramp up in activity from now through Aug. across the Atlantic peaking around Sept. 10th.

[ninel conde]

i know people here are saying it isnt all that dry in the tropics but joe bastardi is on it again today. he was saying ace was 70% of normal, now its 52%.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 53m

Train wreck of Dry air in the tropics! N hem ACE index about 52% of normal. Dry air since 07 tanking ACE, opposite of IPCC AGW claims

[tolakram]

i know people here are saying it isnt all that dry in the tropics but joe bastardi is on it again today. he was saying ace was 70% of normal, now its 52%.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 53m

Train wreck of Dry air in the tropics! N hem ACE index about 52% of normal. Dry air since 07 tanking ACE, opposite of IPCC AGW claims

You'll also notice this latest tweet has some of his politics in it, so I think it's time to draw the line and cut out reposting the JB tweets unless they are strictly weather related.

[NDG]

Anybody else noticed that this month's Eurosip lowered ASO & SON MSLP forecast for the Atlantic compared to last month's forecast?

[wxman57]

Can't view those images in your post, NDG, but I took a look on the Euro website and there is quite a difference. The EUROSIP is a combination of the ECMWF and other models. Since the Euro is the only model forecasting higher pressures in the basin, the blending of the Euro with the other models yields a lower basin pressure. Here's an image I made comparing the two. Still a little higher than normal pressure on the EUROSIP, but not nearly as high as the ECMWF:

[Cyclenall]

Still thinking this should be a bad year for the United States overall. Ridging over the western Atlantic with troughing over the central United States is never a good pattern.

Yes.

You'll also notice this latest tweet has some of his politics in it, so I think it's time to draw the line and cut out reposting the JB tweets unless they are strictly weather related.

Or better yet, altogether.

[ninel conde]

wxrisk.com is agreeing with a guy on facebook that the pattern setting up is favorable for east coast and east gom.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I hope none hit any coast. I just like to track them because I'm bored.

[SFLcane]

The 600dm subtropical high in the Atlantic puts in perspective the dangerous pattern that awaits come ASO.

[TheStormExpert]

The 600dm subtropical high in the Atlantic puts in perspective the dangerous pattern that awaits come ASO.

Yeah, but I'm noticing quite a few more troughs are swinging through trying to really break down this strong ridging. Even though they're having a tough time kind of doing so.

[TheStormExpert]

wxrisk.com is agreeing with a guy on facebook that the pattern setting up is favorable for east coast and east gom.

Last week you were on the boat with JB about troughiness setting up along the EC. Are you not agreeing with that anymore?

[chaser1]

You'll also notice this latest tweet has some of his politics in it, so I think it's time to draw the line and cut out reposting the JB tweets unless they are strictly weather related.

"Amen" to that, brother! Do I hear a Hallelujah from the congregation!? Lord, heal his tired bone dry weather soul..... LOL

[NDG]

The 600dm subtropical high in the Atlantic puts in perspective the dangerous pattern that awaits come ASO.

Yeah, but I'm noticing quite a few more troughs are swinging through trying to really break down this strong ridging. Even though they're having a tough time kind of doing so.

That has been the pattern this summer so far, that not many troughs have not been able to weaken the Atlantic ridge they might temporarily push it south or east but it comes back to take its place right away.
I was comparing 1996 to this summer so far, very similar sypnotic set up but '96's Atlantic ridge was not as strong as the one we are seeing so far this year, which leads me to believe that this year's track could be a bit further west than '96's CV season tracks.

[northjaxpro]

The 600dm subtropical high in the Atlantic puts in perspective the dangerous pattern that awaits come ASO.

Yeah, but I'm noticing quite a few more troughs are swinging through trying to really break down this strong ridging. Even though they're having a tough time kind of doing so.

That has been the pattern this summer so far, that not many troughs have not been able to weaken the Atlantic ridge they might temporarily push it south or east but it comes back to take its place right away.
I was comparing 1996 to this summer so far, very similar sypnotic set up but '96's Atlantic ridge was not as strong as the one we are seeing so far this year, which leads me to believe that this year's track could be a bit further west than '96's CV season tracks.

Yep. This is what really concerns me NDG as we enter ino August and September.

[Janie2006]

Well, I don't know what people on FB are talking about, but the fact remains that the overall pattern thus far this summer has been for general troughiness in the eastern to central CONUS, and none of these troughs has really managed to break that big ridge in the Atlantic. While it is true that these troughs lift out and ridging replaces it, it is also true that the troughs have a distinct tendency to come right back. I've seen very little to change my mind from earlier this month. Gonna be a loooong season.

[cycloneye]

We can discuss here about how the rest of the season will be. It all hinges on the MJO pulses that provide more favorable lifting for convection to get going. Let's see how things evolve in the peak months. The latest MJO forecast is for the favorable pulse to enter the Atlantic during the next two weeks.

[Ntxw]

I have a very primitive question (not much research) on an idea that perhaps a more knowledgeable poster or pro met with information can answer or give input.

One of our great posters, Andrew92, in the past have mentioned that seasons after "modoki" or central Pacific El Nino's often leaves way to bad seasons. Now to get started the past several seasons have proven that dry air and lack of instability has plagued the Atlantic basin. And actually right now the global ACE is very much below normal. We've been in the cold PDO and La Ninas or cold neutrals for a long stretch now (knowingly diminishing rainfall and moisture in the tropical Pacific). The tropics as you know contribute a vast amount of moisture to the global energy budget and the Pacific is the big daddy of them all. Could this long stretch since El Nino could be drying out the global budget and letting dry air be more rampant? Instability is the mutual relationship between temperature and moisture.

2010 had a decent season which was after an El Nino, again linking back to Andrew92's idea. The Indian Ocean I know has influential effects seasonally on activity in the Atlantic but my question here is the longer term Pacific lack of El Nino's of late be contributing to the long term problems we have been seeing in the Atlantic?

[NDG]

I have a very primitive question (not much research) on an idea that perhaps a more knowledgeable poster or pro met with information can answer or give input.

One of our great posters, Andrew92, in the past have mentioned that seasons after "modoki" or central Pacific El Nino's often leaves way to bad seasons. Now to get started the past several seasons have proven that dry air and lack of instability has plagued the Atlantic basin. And actually right now the global ACE is very much below normal. We've been in the cold PDO and La Ninas or cold neutrals for a long stretch now (knowingly diminishing rainfall and moisture in the tropical Pacific). The tropics as you know contribute a vast amount of moisture to the global energy budget and the Pacific is the big daddy of them all. Could this long stretch since El Nino could be drying out the global budget and letting dry air be more rampant? Instability is the mutual relationship between temperature and moisture.

2010 had a decent season which was after an El Nino, again linking back to Andrew92's idea. The Indian Ocean I know has influential effects seasonally on activity in the Atlantic but my question here is the longer term Pacific lack of El Nino's of late be contributing to the long term problems we have been seeing in the Atlantic?

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I am glad you are bringing this up because I brought this up last year but nobody seemed to have caught on this, I am starting to firmly believe that the lack of an El Nino and or a strong El Nino the last few years could be the reason why the tropics are so bone dry.