ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[boca]

I think so but I read that the next recon schedule is 2pm tomorrow

[SapphireSea]

Been reviewing the new images from the CIMSS and it does not look like the shear zone is moving as fast as Dorian. Dorian looks like it will be mauled by the TUTT shear some time tomorrow unless the call for it to weaken come true. My optimism with the storm is waning like it's convection.

[HURAKAN]

recent ASCAT pass ... sharp wave

[cycloneye]

Was the 10:30pm recon cancelled?

I think Chris_in_Tampa makes valid points about recon not going at this time. See what he posted here.

[blp]

Been reviewing the new images from the CIMSS and it does not look like the shear zone is moving as fast as Dorian. Dorian looks like it will be mauled by the TUTT shear some time tomorrow unless the call for it to weaken come true. My optimism with the storm is waning like it's convection.

Yea, I am not sure the TUTT will pull out quick enough either. It is going to be close.

[Hurricaneman]

recent ASCAT pass ... sharp wave

The vortex we have been following is nowhere near where the low level wave is so there indeed has not been a relocation under the convection so this still has a long way to go in terms of redevelopment

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ozonepete]

There was just a flurry of posts saying that convection is weak and not increasing. What am I missing?

7:45PM:


11:45PM:

[Brent]

Was the 10:30pm recon cancelled?

Recon doesn't do nighttime invests...

[beoumont]

Ditto.

[SFLcane]

Convection might still be increasing ozonepete but did you see the ASCAT that was posted? Nothing here to be real concerned about yet. Sharp wave

[SFLcane]

Ditto. Circle the wagons:

Richard! Talk to me.. Mean looking wave :0)

[thundercam96]

Here's a look at the Mid. Level Water Vapor Imagery:

Not to be off-topic,but are any models developing that wave in Western Africa when it exits into the Atlantic?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

The 00z GFS doesn't even show a low through 45 hours...IMO the lack of development w/ these models can't be ignored...If the environment truly favored some development I think we would see some indication in the model runs...Nothing run after run...

Most, if not all of the models seem to be off so far this season. Even the ECMWF has barely detected any activity. And even if the models don't say anything is forming... we can see it on satellite. Models aren't always right. And they haven't been very attentive so far this year.

I am not a model apologist by any means, in fact far from it, but must give credit where credit is due.They were insistent on Chantal and Dorian falling apart And look what happened. If they aren't showing any development in the near term it must be for a reason.

[Evil Jeremy]

The 00z GFS doesn't even show a low through 45 hours...IMO the lack of development w/ these models can't be ignored...If the environment truly favored some development I think we would see some indication in the model runs...Nothing run after run...

Most, if not all of the models seem to be off so far this season. Even the ECMWF has barely detected any activity. And even if the models don't say anything is forming... we can see it on satellite. Models aren't always right. And they haven't been very attentive so far this year.

I am not a model apologist by any means, in fact far from it, but must give credit where credit is due.They were insistent on Chantal and Dorian falling apart And look what happened. If they aren't showing any development in the near term it must be for a reason.

The models barely showed Chantal and Dorian forming in the first place.

[boca]

I agree with ozonepete the convection has really increased in that 4 hour span.

[Cainer]

Just a quick little diagram of what I'm seeing in the last couple RGB frames. First off, you can see the upper-level outflow beginning to bunch up to the west of the system, indicating that it is approaching the axis of the TUTT. Secondly, the storms that are redeveloping to the west of the storm are being sheared, unlike the storms near the center of the MLC which remain in a light shear environment. These two factors indicates that the environment ex-Dorian will be heading into will be more hostile than it is right now, and I feel that any development will be pretty slow to occur.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Aric Dunn]

looking good.... it will survive as long as the tutt keeps retrograting

[ozonepete]

Convection might still be increasing ozonepete but did you see the ASCAT that was posted? Nothing here to be real concerned about yet. Sharp wave

Hey there SFL. The point is that you have to be concerned when any developing or regenerating system starts to increase in convection near the center. Tall thunderstorm clusters near the center of a rotating disturbance always try to put down an LLC because of the dynamics involved with cool outflow at the top and warm inflow at the bottom. That is how sharp waves go to closed lows really quickly. So I am looking for a concentrated cluster of thunderstorms at the center of the broader circulation envelope to see if this is likely to put down an LLC and get back to a fully developed TC again. IMHO it is very far along on doing just that. The one big negative factor is shear, and I would say once aqain, to be clear, that even though the ULL to the west has retrograded and weakened, that doesn't mean that this ULL might stall now and dig in. If it does it will shear this apart like a log going into a buzzsaw. We can only watch.

And my two cents is that the models have done really poorly with this overall so far but they often do with a developing or redeveloping system when conditions are marginal.

[ROCK]

the 0Z GFS does not have anything at all.....just a wave....you cant even follow the 850mb vort because there is not one....


guess all these models showing the same solution are wrong....

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Another view of that satellite pass, with two images I merged together:

From: http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/data ... TBData.php
Image 1: http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/asca ... MBas88.png
Image 2: http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/asca ... MBas87.png