ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hurricanekid416]

The storm looks better today than yesterday

[Dave]

I will be gone this afternoon for awhile...have physical therapy to 'enjoy' on a knee so if someone wants to grab the afternoon mission go for it. If you hear a scream from Indiana around 1 pm no worries it's just me or the therapist.

[cycloneye]

This afternoon's mission is a go.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 29 JULY 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z JULY 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-059

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 30/1730Z,2330Z
B. AFXXX 0404A DORIAN
C. 30/1530Z
D. 22.0N 72.5W
E. 30/1700Z TO 30/2330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 31/0530Z,1130Z
B. AFXXX 0504A DORIAN
C. 31/0300Z
D. 22.5N 75.0W
E. 31/0500Z TO 31/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

[hurricanekid416]

MIMIC-TPW starting to show the lack of circulation and the fact it's deforming a bit. IMO this is the beginning of the end.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It still looks to have a good amount of moisture

[ROCK]

Specifics aren't important, but the fact that the HWRF now develops this storm, and robustly when it otherwise hadn't been the past few days, shows that conditions will become quite favorable as time progresses. We will have to see how quickly it can develop a decent surface center.

a single run of a model who isnt good enough to replace the GFDL which it should have years ago....really?

funny not any of the globals really show this....

[stauglocal]

At least the buoys have been jumping up from the remnants of Dorian. Finally going to break the flat spell here in Florida.

[Alyono]

Specifics aren't important, but the fact that the HWRF now develops this storm, and robustly when it otherwise hadn't been the past few days, shows that conditions will become quite favorable as time progresses. We will have to see how quickly it can develop a decent surface center.

that doesn't mean anything. Only thing it means is that HWRF may be totally clueless as to the upper environment

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Specifics aren't important, but the fact that the HWRF now develops this storm, and robustly when it otherwise hadn't been the past few days, shows that conditions will become quite favorable as time progresses. We will have to see how quickly it can develop a decent surface center.

a single run of a model who isnt good enough to replace the GFDL which it should have years ago....really?

funny not any of the globals really show this....

I'm not surprised. Global models have been horrible with the tropics this year to be honest. If we trust them, Andrea was a very weak frontal low (GFS), Barry didn't exist (GFS and ECMWF), Chantal didn't exist (GFS and ECMWF), and Dorian existed for about 12 hours (ECMWF).

[rockyman]

This is what I'm seeing this morning. The low-level vorticity is on the SW corner of the main convective blob. The shear is blowing this convection off to the northeast, and the beginnings of a possible new convective blob is forming near the low level vorticity:





Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

By the way rock, the HWRF was upgraded on July 15...is supposed to have a track record either to that of the GFS and an intensity record better than the NHC.

We'll see.

Specifics aren't important, but the fact that the HWRF now develops this storm, and robustly when it otherwise hadn't been the past few days, shows that conditions will become quite favorable as time progresses. We will have to see how quickly it can develop a decent surface center.

that doesn't mean anything. Only thing it means is that HWRF may be totally clueless as to the upper environment

Or it means it's spot on, which would agree with what the LGEM and SHIPS show. 91L might have some shear over the next day or two, but it's pretty smooth sailing afterwards.

[MGC]

The convection is being enhanced by the wave axis in close proximity to the ULL. ULL is providing an excellent method to ventilate the wave, sorta like convection near a split in the jet stream. I think 91L will have a better chance to reform towards the western Bahamas....MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[Alyono]

By the way rock, the HWRF was upgraded on July 15...is supposed to have a track record either to that of the GFS and an intensity record better than the NHC.

We'll see.

Specifics aren't important, but the fact that the HWRF now develops this storm, and robustly when it otherwise hadn't been the past few days, shows that conditions will become quite favorable as time progresses. We will have to see how quickly it can develop a decent surface center.

that doesn't mean anything. Only thing it means is that HWRF may be totally clueless as to the upper environment

Or it means it's spot on, which would agree with what the LGEM and SHIPS show. 91L might have some shear over the next day or two, but it's pretty smooth sailing afterwards.

for the 100th time, SHIPS and LGEM assume this has a closed circulation now. It does not. Thus, the models are not worth all that much

[caneman]

Personally I'm not trusting any models this year. None of them seem to be on their game. Who knows if this will develop. Anyone who says they know I don't think is being truthful. Right now I'd say odds are against it. I know it is only end of July but there sure doesn't seem to be any signs of an active and vigorous season.

[ROCK]

By the way rock, the HWRF was upgraded on July 15...is supposed to have a track record either to that of the GFS and an intensity record better than the NHC.

We'll see.

Specifics aren't important, but the fact that the HWRF now develops this storm, and robustly when it otherwise hadn't been the past few days, shows that conditions will become quite favorable as time progresses. We will have to see how quickly it can develop a decent surface center.

that doesn't mean anything. Only thing it means is that HWRF may be totally clueless as to the upper environment

Or it means it's spot on, which would agree with what the LGEM and SHIPS show. 91L might have some shear over the next day or two, but it's pretty smooth sailing afterwards.

all I am saying is.......

"one model run a trend does not make"- YODA

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

(to Alyono) I'm well aware of that. However, they don't just intensify 91L because they feel like doing so. If the environment was unfavorable, they would show weakening. They don't. In fact, the LGEM -- which is historically the best intensity model we have -- even shows little change in strength over the next two days to account for the marginally favorable environment, then intensifies it quickly thereafter. They're not supposed to be meant directly, but they do give clues.

[Blown Away]

By the way rock, the HWRF was upgraded on July 15...is supposed to have a track record either to that of the GFS and an intensity record better than the NHC.

We'll see.

Specifics aren't important, but the fact that the HWRF now develops this storm, and robustly when it otherwise hadn't been the past few days, shows that conditions will become quite favorable as time progresses. We will have to see how quickly it can develop a decent surface center.

that doesn't mean anything. Only thing it means is that HWRF may be totally clueless as to the upper environment

Or it means it's spot on, which would agree with what the LGEM and SHIPS show. 91L might have some shear over the next day or two, but it's pretty smooth sailing afterwards.

Gotta look at the almost stall of of 91L when it gets to @76W, from there its' a spread of 2-3 days for 91L to make it to just @80W...Maybe if 91L can hang on for 48 hours it will sit in the SE Bahamas for a few days and conditions will improve...Maybe that's what some models see??

[tolakram]

My personal bias is to go with the globals and assume no development. That said,

Shear seems to be lessening in front of 91L: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

And there doesn't seem to be any issues firing off new convection so far today.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=4

The GFS did show some improvement over the next few house before losing most of the vorticity, so we'll watch and see.

[MiamiensisWx]

What I see in the low-level clouds:

*LLV (not closed, but a general spin) near 20.5°N 66.5°W
*To the S of this location: SW low-level inflow (switching to WSW @ 1445Z?)
*To the E of this location: S low-level inflow
*To the W of this location: E low-level flow

Maybe the LLV is relocating closer to the MLV...maybe? If so, maybe a weak center will close off by tonight...somewhere NE of 20.5°N 66.5°W.

[northjaxpro]

Ex-Dorian is currently bumping right up against that weakening ULL. Can it overcome the ULL in the short term? If it can somehow get over this obstacle, then the oppportunity for re-developement will improve for this entity.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

There's a buoy, 41043, located directly in the convective mass of 91L. Convection needs to sustain itself longer...there's nothing at the surface yet.