ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AEWspotter]

So far, the plane isn't even finding the wave axis and it's nearly to 69W. Could be the wave axis is west of 69W. The convection is remaining stationary near the entrance region of the jet SE of the upper low. Convection should be diminishing as the wave axis continues moving westward.

Could be a weak wave axis ~68W, right where the plane turned around. But, it's hard to see and certainly not impressive.

[lester]

lester and tolakram, I can relieve you for a couple of hours, if you'd like.

thanks, I have to go on a break for a while

[wxman57]

This Invest 91L looks a lot better than Tropical Storm Chantal. Does anyone think it will be upgraded to a td at 5pm?

Satellite imagery can be quite deceiving. There is no circulation at the surface, which is a requirement for upgrade. Chances of an upgrade appear to be zero or less.

[SFLcane]

This Invest 91L looks a lot better than Tropical Storm Chantal. Does anyone think it will be upgraded to a td at 5pm?

Chances of that appear to be zero or less.

57 Chances of named storm before florida? :0)

[wxman57]

57 Chances of named storm before florida? :0)

That's easy - 100%. It was already named before Florida.

Redevelopment looking unlikely.

[artist]

lester and tolakram, I can relieve you for a couple of hours, if you'd like.

thanks, I have to go on a break for a while

got it!

[tgenius]

57 Chances of named storm before florida? :0)

That's easy - 100%. It was already named before Florida.

Redevelopment looking unlikely.

So the better question will be how much if at all of a rainmaker will this be for SFL?

[artist]

here is 14 -

URNT15 KNHC 291831
AF301 0204A DORIAN HDOB 14 20130729
175930 1957N 06854W 9815 00302 0159 +240 +230 104006 007 003 000 00
180000 1958N 06855W 9820 00298 0158 +240 +228 104006 006 004 001 03
180030 1959N 06857W 9817 00300 0158 +240 +227 106005 006 002 001 03
180100 2000N 06858W 9817 00300 0158 +240 +226 098006 007 003 000 00
180130 2001N 06900W 9818 00299 0157 +242 +224 106007 007 006 002 03
180200 2002N 06900W 9813 00304 0157 +244 +218 120007 008 /// /// 03
180230 2003N 06859W 9814 00303 0157 +241 +221 135007 007 000 000 03
180300 2004N 06858W 9819 00298 0157 +240 +224 141007 007 001 001 03
180330 2004N 06857W 9819 00298 0157 +244 +221 133007 008 000 001 03
180400 2005N 06855W 9815 00302 0158 +241 +223 134007 007 000 000 03
180430 2006N 06854W 9818 00300 0158 +241 +225 131007 007 000 001 03
180500 2007N 06852W 9817 00300 0157 +240 +226 130006 007 000 002 03
180530 2008N 06851W 9818 00300 0158 +240 +228 125006 006 000 002 03
180600 2008N 06850W 9819 00298 0158 +240 +229 121006 006 002 004 03
180630 2009N 06848W 9817 00300 0158 +240 +230 128006 006 000 001 03
180700 2010N 06847W 9819 00298 0158 +240 +233 141004 005 000 000 03
180730 2010N 06845W 9819 00298 0158 +240 +233 132005 005 002 000 03
180800 2010N 06844W 9816 00302 0158 +240 +233 143005 005 001 001 03
180830 2010N 06842W 9819 00299 0158 +240 +233 140006 006 001 001 03
180900 2011N 06841W 9813 00305 0158 +241 +232 127006 007 /// /// 03
$$

16 missing

000
URNT15 KNHC 291839
AF301 0204A DORIAN HDOB 17 20130729
182930 2047N 06742W 9822 00295 0157 +234 +230 141022 022 010 001 00
183000 2048N 06740W 9821 00296 0158 +233 +227 140024 025 017 000 00
183030 2049N 06738W 9822 00295 0158 +235 +220 138025 025 016 000 00
183100 2050N 06737W 9822 00295 0158 +234 +222 141024 025 014 001 00
183130 2051N 06735W 9823 00295 0159 +233 +219 140024 024 014 000 00
183200 2052N 06733W 9823 00298 0161 +234 +218 139024 025 014 000 00
183230 2053N 06731W 9823 00297 0162 +234 +219 137023 024 013 000 00
183300 2054N 06729W 9820 00299 0162 +235 +220 139024 025 013 000 03
183330 2055N 06727W 9820 00299 0164 +235 +221 135024 025 014 000 00
183400 2056N 06726W 9823 00299 0164 +235 +223 134024 024 014 000 03
183430 2057N 06724W 9821 00302 0164 +235 +224 135023 024 014 001 00
183500 2058N 06722W 9820 00306 0166 +235 +225 136024 024 010 001 03
183530 2059N 06720W 9826 00300 0168 +236 +225 133022 024 008 000 00
183600 2101N 06719W 9823 00301 0164 +235 +226 131024 025 010 001 03
183630 2102N 06718W 9818 00306 0166 +234 +226 128023 023 021 001 00
183700 2103N 06716W 9823 00300 0165 +235 +227 126025 026 024 001 03
183730 2104N 06715W 9819 00304 0166 +234 +226 124026 027 027 001 03
183800 2105N 06714W 9818 00305 0166 +234 +224 124026 027 027 001 03
183830 2106N 06712W 9821 00303 0167 +230 +223 120026 027 026 000 00
183900 2107N 06711W 9822 00303 0167 +230 +225 116025 027 027 001 03
$$
;

[wxman57]

There's a buoy near the mid-level rotation in the center of the convection. Pressure there 1019.2mb:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41043

[artist]

[SFLcane]

57 Chances of named storm before florida? :0)

That's easy - 100%. It was already named before Florida.

Redevelopment looking unlikely.

Yep thanks just lost track with this annoying storm. Hopefully more interesting storms to come in august-sept dangerous pattern still in place.

[JonathanBelles]

There's a buoy near the mid-level rotation in the center of the convection. Pressure there 1019.2mb:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41043

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/Dorian4.jpg

That pressure was as low as 1015 mb earlier today.

[boca]

The gfs says the wave decouples and stays east of Florida because of the trough but the euro says the wave will cross Florida and provide a heavy rain event and this is from the nws Miami

[hurricanekid416]

There's a buoy near the mid-level rotation in the center of the convection. Pressure there 1019.2mb:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41043

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/Dorian4.jpg

That pressure was as low as 1015 mb earlier today.

I bet when it was 1015 the center of the cdo feature was over the buoy

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291851
AF301 0204A DORIAN HDOB 18 20130729
183930 2108N 06709W 9819 00305 0168 +231 +221 119025 025 029 001 00
184000 2109N 06708W 9819 00306 0169 +229 +222 119025 026 027 000 00
184030 2110N 06706W 9815 00308 0169 +230 +221 124025 026 026 000 03
184100 2111N 06705W 9816 00309 //// +212 //// 125024 025 025 002 01
184130 2112N 06704W 9820 00306 //// +224 //// 124025 027 028 001 05
184200 2112N 06702W 9815 00312 0170 +228 +225 119024 026 027 001 03
184230 2113N 06701W 9820 00307 0171 +230 +221 119024 025 026 001 03
184300 2114N 06659W 9816 00311 0171 +226 +225 113024 025 027 001 05
184330 2115N 06658W 9822 00305 0171 +230 +221 119022 024 027 001 03
184400 2115N 06656W 9805 00322 0173 +229 +219 115022 023 029 002 00
184430 2116N 06654W 9823 00306 0174 +230 +219 117022 023 027 000 03
184500 2117N 06652W 9819 00311 0174 +230 +217 122023 023 028 000 03
184530 2118N 06651W 9821 00310 0175 +233 +213 121022 023 024 001 03
184600 2119N 06649W 9823 00310 0175 +234 +209 118021 022 025 001 00
184630 2120N 06648W 9823 00308 0176 +232 +211 113023 024 026 001 00
184700 2122N 06647W 9823 00310 0177 +229 +210 109024 025 028 000 00
184730 2123N 06645W 9823 00310 0178 +229 +205 104026 027 028 001 00
184800 2124N 06644W 9818 00314 0178 +225 +212 100027 027 028 001 00
184830 2125N 06642W 9823 00310 0178 +227 +203 099029 030 029 001 00
184900 2126N 06641W 9823 00310 0178 +230 +199 101030 030 029 000 00
$$

[artist]

[wxman57]

That pressure was as low as 1015 mb earlier today.

I bet when it was 1015 the center of the cdo feature was over the buoy

Just plotted the buoy report with satellite overlay and the 1015.3mb occurred between two areas of convection.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291859
AF301 0204A DORIAN HDOB 19 20130729
184930 2128N 06640W 9821 00313 0179 +228 +198 102028 029 028 000 00
185000 2129N 06638W 9820 00314 0180 +221 +211 099027 028 028 001 03
185030 2131N 06637W 9832 00304 0180 +220 +216 099029 029 028 001 00
185100 2132N 06636W 9820 00314 0179 +220 +210 100030 031 029 002 00
185130 2133N 06635W 9819 00314 0178 +224 +198 098033 033 028 001 00
185200 2135N 06635W 9821 00313 0178 +224 +190 098034 036 031 000 03
185230 2136N 06634W 9819 00313 0178 +225 +183 099037 040 030 000 03
185300 2138N 06633W 9816 00315 0177 +232 +164 098040 040 031 001 00
185330 2139N 06632W 9819 00314 0178 +231 +163 098039 040 030 001 03
185400 2140N 06631W 9821 00312 0178 +230 +170 097038 039 030 000 03
185430 2142N 06631W 9817 00314 0176 +236 +168 099039 040 029 001 00
185500 2143N 06630W 9819 00312 0176 +232 +169 103038 039 029 000 03
185530 2144N 06629W 9820 00311 0178 +220 +183 104036 039 028 000 03
185600 2146N 06628W 9818 00313 0178 +224 +179 110037 038 027 001 00
185630 2147N 06627W 9822 00312 0178 +224 +185 114036 037 027 001 00
185700 2149N 06626W 9821 00312 0178 +226 +185 116037 037 028 001 00
185730 2150N 06625W 9822 00311 0180 +216 +197 116034 036 027 003 00
185800 2152N 06624W 9819 00314 0179 +215 +200 119035 037 027 002 00
185830 2153N 06623W 9818 00314 0179 +217 +197 118038 039 029 002 03
185900 2154N 06623W 9822 00310 0178 +219 +196 120036 039 027 004 00
$$
;

[wxman57]

Tropical Tidbits has a good plot of these recon reports. I won't post a hot link here, but this is the link to the graphic Levi is producing:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_usaf.png

[Nimbus]

Looks like light shear from the SW.
Wind shift near center and lots of TS strength wind flags.
Now back to figuring out the future track.