ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ROCK]

can we have an annular tropical wave? best non-TD / TS / Cane I have ever seen.

[ROCK]

none of the globals 18Z runs do anything with this....toast..

[ScottNAtlanta]

can we have an annular tropical wave? best non-TD / TS / Cane I have ever seen.

I like that...annular wave

[Hurricane Alexis]

I think chances are gonna be lowered to 10% this TWO.

[cycloneye]

Stays at 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 29 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...IS PRODUCING
AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY A COUPLE OF
HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH THIS DISTURBANCE HAS
A WELL-DEVELOPED CIRCULATION IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION....AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE
FOR REGENERATION TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. SHOWERS
AND GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
WELL TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT...AND COULD SPREAD ACROSS
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE FOUND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[ScottNAtlanta]

An appropriate theme song for Dorian (FYI lyrics start at 30 second mark)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrIE266rqnw[/youtube]

[ronjon]

Best looking tropical wave I've ever seen! With this vigorous mid-level circulation you just can't write it off even if pressures are high. This is the exact same situation as how Andrew formed and we all know how that turned out. I'm not sayin this storm will be anything like that but shear will be decreasing and it'll be traveling over very warm waters in the next few days.

[Senobia]

I don't know. There's a lot of activity over Cuba right now. What if/is it possible that Dorian absorbs that activity or is absorbed by that activity - and flares all over again, but this time in the Gulf?

Thoughts?

[wzrgirl1]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/rb-l.jpg

[SapphireSea]

I don't know. There's a lot of activity over Cuba right now. What if/is it possible that Dorian absorbs that activity or is absorbed by that activity - and flares all over again, but this time in the Gulf?

Thoughts?

Convection over cuba and islands are of the normal low natural convergance, and lapse rates due to afternoon maxima over land. They will not assist in any way because they by themselves are not part of the normal mechanism for a tropical cyclone. So the cyclone can't really "absorb" that convection. Also make note of the local time (-4 or -5) from UTC and you will see in multiday loops that this activity happens almost every day in the afternoon. Once the storms die out, it is the beginning of the process of cooling off leading to oceanic diurnal maxima for convection, and THIS does help sustain would be and current cyclones.

DMAX occurs around 4-5AM local time for the zone the cyclone is in. Roughly.

[funster]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/rb-l.jpg

Remnants of Dorian do not seem to have made much progress west looking at that image. Convection still north of PR.

[ROCK]

MLC slowly winding down...almost devoid of convection now...

[southerngale]

Tweet from JB. Yeah I bet it would be named if it looked like this 1000 miles E of the Islands.

http://i40.tinypic.com/2wbtjds.jpg

Unless I missed another one, this is all he said:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 7h
Nice pic... of nothing? recon not finding much. if this was where recon couldnt get too, would it be named? pic.twitter.com/LOXMOolfSi

[pgoss11]

RIP Dorian..think he's finally dried up.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Dorian has some things going for it. Mid level shear has dropped off some in the past few hours and the TUTT seems to be dissipating. He's also developing convection on the northern side in the last couple of frames. The trend is for the mid and upper level shear to continue to drop, at least for now.

[Blown Away]

00z Guidance...Hurricane in 120 hours...

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0111 UTC TUE JUL 30 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE DORIAN (AL912013) 20130730 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130730 0000 130730 1200 130731 0000 130731 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.2N 68.0W 21.9N 70.7W 22.5N 73.4W 22.9N 75.9W
BAMD 21.2N 68.0W 21.7N 69.9W 22.0N 71.6W 22.2N 73.2W
BAMM 21.2N 68.0W 21.6N 70.4W 21.8N 72.4W 21.9N 74.4W
LBAR 21.2N 68.0W 21.7N 70.2W 22.1N 72.2W 22.5N 74.4W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 33KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130801 0000 130802 0000 130803 0000 130804 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.5N 78.1W 24.8N 81.4W 26.2N 83.5W 27.5N 85.5W
BAMD 22.5N 74.8W 23.6N 77.7W 25.2N 79.9W 25.9N 81.9W
BAMM 22.2N 76.2W 23.3N 79.1W 25.1N 81.1W 26.4N 82.9W
LBAR 23.0N 76.5W 24.7N 79.9W 27.4N 81.5W 29.8N 81.3W
SHIP 38KTS 49KTS 62KTS 69KTS
DSHP 38KTS 49KTS 62KTS 69KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.2N LONCUR = 68.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 20.8N LONM12 = 65.3W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 20.4N LONM24 = 62.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1015MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[hurricanekid416]

Is it finally done

[galaxy401]

I'm coming back tomorrow to see if this storm is dead or not.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I'm coming back tomorrow to see if this storm is dead or not.

Don't rush and go out of your way to do it. Its dead. Models showing absolutely nothing.

[bahamaswx]

Same story everyday. No convection left by sunset, tons of convection by sunrise.