ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jhpigott]

3500 CAPE air over central Cuba.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png

Should see massive thunderstorms fire off in a few hours and feed into this.

That should fuel it up for overnight.

Should see an interesting DMAX in the morning.

Not to mention this disturbance is closing in on the gulf stream waters. I wonder if it's within the realm of possibility we wake up with a TD/low end TS sitting right off the coast of SE FL tomorrow morning.

[GCANE]

RAP is coming in with some good SW winds in the boundary layer just off the north shore of Cuba

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scr ... .5000W.png

[stauglocal]

How many models have to pick up on this before it becomes an invest?

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html
~~~~~~~~~
Nice moisture feed around the east side of that ULL

[GCANE]

Not to mention this disturbance is closing in on the gulf stream waters. I wonder if it's within the realm of possibility we wake up with a TD/low end TS sitting right off the coast of SE FL tomorrow morning.

A lot going on underneath the lid.

[ronjon]

Based on SAT, I'd say the prime area for LLC development is on the south end of Andros Island as convection is blowing up there.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_timestamp.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480

[boca]

It looks like its moving towards South Florida very interesting

[Tireman4]

Paging Wxman 57,


You maybe needed back in the morgue. Something is happening. Thank you.

[floridasun78]

ok now we wait see if nhc but yellow circle in area at 2pm

[ronjon]

Four Cuban stations reporting SW winds now.

[Tropics Guy]

Based on Satellite, a nice spin just south of Andros, not sure its at the surface though, could be at the mid-levels., seems to be moving wnw towards the gulf stream, should be tagged an invest, being so close to land and some model support now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/vis-animated.gif

TG

[floridasun78]

noooo wx57 he will say not thing worry about

[floridasun78]

i think nhc wont say any thing will see 2pm

[GCANE]

200mb PV clear as a bell just to the west of the main convection.

Should see a nice anti-cyclone develop shortly.

[gatorcane]

850MB (low-level) vorticity is present under the Grand Bahama blob:

[jonj2040]

Just noticing that the primary 850mb voticity lines up with the current coldest cloud tops at the southern tip of Andros.

edited 'cause you can look at gators voticity chart no need for redundancy, beat me to it! haha

[Weatherboy1]

Could the ghost of Dorian actually be rising again? LOL. I wonder. Definitely worth watching.

[cycloneye]

Double 20s

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 1 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN
HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ALONG A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES
ARE FALLING IN THIS AREA...THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A CLOSED
CIRCULATION. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH...BRINGING CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND GUSTY
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AFTER
THAT...THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...USE LOWER
CASE...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/FRANKLIN

[tolakram]

20/20

[CalmBeforeStorm]

ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES
ARE FALLING IN THIS AREA...
~~~~~~~~
interesting