ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

During the last few hours as if the surface circulation has gotten closer to the MLC that was near the western tip of of Grand Bahama Island.

[NDG]

COC appears to be east of Vero Beach/Ft Pierce.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/PBI.DHR ... 595_an.gif

[brunota2003]

Everything canceled and nothing scheduled for ex-Dorian now:

Code: Select all

000
NOUS42 KNHC 021509
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT FRI 02 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z AUGUST 2013
         TCPOD NUMBER.....13-063 CORRECTION

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
    3. REMARKS:  ALL TASKING ON THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
       DORIAN CANCELLED BY NHC AT 02/1145Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
ECD



[Aric Dunn]

it appears well on its way. it has a good shot over the day

[tailgater]

I'm starting to think it will miss the trough but will probably still drift northward. What do yall think?
Models all show north then NE.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Southwest winds in Grand Bahama, northeast winds at Vero Beach (Florida). Looks like we have a closed LLC.

Radar shows an improving structure as well. Banding appears to be forming.

Will be very surprised if this isn't up to 50% or more at the 8pm EDT TWO.

[jhpigott]

I'm starting to think it will miss the trough but will probably still drift northward. What do yall think?
Models all show north then NE.

Watching this radar loop out of Melbourne, FL it almost looks like a stall or southward drift of the circulation
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... B&loop=yes

[bahamaswx]

Lots of new convection firing over the now much more closely stacked centers.

[jhpigott]

looks like this system is about to tap into this line of t-storms running thru the middle of FL from N-to-S.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... s%20(radar)

[Terry]

I just noticed that, too.

looks like this system is about to tap into this line of t-storms running thru the middle of FL from N-to-S.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... s%20(radar)

[Hurricane Alexis]

Looks to my untrained eye that it might be drifting very slowly to the south. I think 30% chances will be maintained at 8pm since shear looks like it will kill it soon.

[weatherwindow]

I just noticed that, too.

looks like this system is about to tap into this line of t-storms running thru the middle of FL from N-to-S.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... s%20(radar)

Good evening, Terry et al...IMO, from its structure and curvature, I would now term it a feeder band to our incipient cyclone. It is certainly lighting up SE Fla:)...providing much needed inflow to "our little cyclone that could"...Grtz from KW, Rich

The above is not to be interpreted as a forecast. For any and all substantive information and forecasts please consult the NWS, TPC or local emergency management

[tolakram]

I think 50/50, but only if it develops in the next 24 hours.

[northjaxpro]

Earlier today, I was looking at WV imagery and the updated steering flow and I was wondering if the trough is beginning to lift out. It really is a close call about that. We will see soon. It should hopefully grab 91L. Yesterday, it looked as if the trough would be strong enough to pick 91L up. But, strong shear shouldrip 91L apart if it gets above 28N .

I am ready for this system to move on. This has been one pesky system to say the least.

[Terry]

For what it's worth, that "feederband" started as one of our typical central Florida clashes of the east and west seabreeze fronts.

I just noticed that, too.

looks like this system is about to tap into this line of t-storms running thru the middle of FL from N-to-S.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... s%20(radar)

Good evening, Terry et al...IMO, from its structure and curvature, I would now term it a feeder band to our incipient cyclone. It is certainly lighting up SE Fla:)...providing much needed inflow to "our little cyclone that could"...Grtz from KW, Rich

The above is not to be interpreted as a forecast. For any and all substantive information and forecasts please consult the NWS, TPC or local emergency management

[weatherwindow]

Just to add icing to the IT cake..now having problems accessing NWS, all of our local offices and the Southern Region Hq. Unable to connect with any of the above for about 30 minutes...anyone else?...Grtz from KW, Rich

[Weatherboy1]

Settlement point at the western tip of grand Bahamas island has been reporting WSW and W winds the last couple
Of hours. ENE and NE winds at the Florida buoys and stations north of me here in palm beach county and the "popcorn" looking thunderstorm clouds banding towards the area due east of, say, ft pierce all lead me to believe there may be a center of circulation coalescing there. Will be interesting to see if we can get some confirmation over the next several hours. My opinion anyway

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Up to 50%.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF MELBOURNE
FLORIDA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF DORIAN...IS MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Unless there is some form of destruction, I can't see why this wouldn't be a TD by 11pm.

[northjaxpro]

Given the presentation right now, I agree with the NHC giving the system a 50/50 shot of becoming a TD. However, you can see the northerly shear already impacting 91L and I think if it doesn't develop in the next 6-12 hours, the odds decrease significantly. But, with the way ex-Dorian/ 91L keeps defying the odds over these past two weeks, I will not pronounce it dead until the the very final piece of vorticity has been obliterated.