WPAC: UTOR - Post-Tropical

[RobWESTPACWX]

Now PAGASA shows a track much like JTWCs earlier track.

[RobWESTPACWX]

HMM SATCON now showing up to 45kts. So so interesting. Could we have a TS at 12 via JMA?

SATCON (2mem): MSLP = 996 hPa MSW = 45 kt

[senorpepr]

I think JMA is a little behind. OSCAT suggested tropical storm strength at 03Z and NWS has been going about 45 kt in their Dvorak analyses.

I touch on the initial intensity in my storm update video:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nTFTANN8lYQ[/youtube]

Nonetheless, should be a significant threat to Luzon early next week.

[senorpepr]

HMM SATCON now showing up to 45kts. So so interesting. Could we have a TS at 12 via JMA?

SATCON (2mem): MSLP = 996 hPa MSW = 45 kt

Looking at JMA's 12Z Dvorak... I don't think they'll upgrade.

T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24 HRS

[euro6208]

Surprised this hasn't been upgraded yet. Dvorak at 3.0 and ADT hovering above 3.0 as well.

[senorpepr]

I have no idea why JMA is going with a lower Dvorak data-t... I kinda wish they transmitted their analyses on an alphanumeric bulletin rather than BUFR so they can freeform remarks like KNES and JTWC. I wonder how much convection wrap they are getting on the log10 spiral... or are they using a different method to determine the intensity...

[wxman57]

This "depression" appears to be forming an eyewall:

[RobWESTPACWX]

how fantastic, cmon JMA, wake up!

[RobWESTPACWX]

The MIMIC shows a similar image. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html

[wxman57]

how fantastic, cmon JMA, wake up!

JMA says 45 kts, it's JTWC that is calling it a depression:
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

Looks like 45 kts may be a bit conservative, to me.

[RobWESTPACWX]

I see a 45kt gust from JMA with 30kts sustained.Thats on the 15Z warning. So still a Tropical Depression.

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

[RobWESTPACWX]

Knowing JMA as well its 1AM, it probably wont be upgraded until the morning.(not to mentions its a holiday weekend so all the experts are probably off.) Im going to go catch a few hours of snooze.

[wxman57]

I see a 45kt gust from JMA with 30kts sustained.Thats on the 15Z warning. So still a Tropical Depression.

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

Oops, was reading wrong line. But their 10-minute 30kt wind would equate to TS strength. NOAA has Dvorak 3.0 (same as Henriette at 60kts) and CIMS has T3.4.

[dexterlabio]

Its circulation looks too healthy for a tropical depression. And there is an increase in convection over the center for the past several hours.

By the way, it's so cool butting in on professional met's conversation in here.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Its circulation looks too healthy for a tropical depression. And there is an increase in convection over the center for the past several hours.

By the way, it's so cool butting in on professional met's conversation in here.

Shutup Dexter!! The pros are talking!!! LOL Ya right.. Im clueless quite often. Thats why I hang out on this what I call "nerd forum" to get and share information with you guys!

Also I know I said Im off to bed. This thing is annoying me though the Microwave imagery really showing that tight banding in the center. At least no work tomorrow.

[Alyono]

HMM SATCON now showing up to 45kts. So so interesting. Could we have a TS at 12 via JMA?

SATCON (2mem): MSLP = 996 hPa MSW = 45 kt

Looking at JMA's 12Z Dvorak... I don't think they'll upgrade.

T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24 HRS

How in the world do they get a 1.5 out of that?

[Alyono]

I do have to say, JTWCs intensity forecast has a total lack of consistency. How do you go from 110KT to a borderline TS/typhoon hitting the Philippines in less than 24 hours?

[Dave C]

It has a huge band wrapping from the west to the south side, man this thing could really take off!

[vrif]

WTPQ20 RJTD 091800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1311 UTOR (1311) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091800UTC 13.7N 131.7E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 101800UTC 15.9N 128.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 111800UTC 17.5N 125.3E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 121800UTC 18.9N 122.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

[phwxenthusiast]

am i reading that right? JMA not expecting any intensification for the next 24 hours?! i have feeling they'll bust badly with that one... if there's any chance of it becoming a typhoon, i'd think it would be in the next 24 to 36 hours...

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