Global model runs discussion
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- CalmBeforeStorm
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Perhaps the upgrades made them lave a low bias vs a high one?
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- cycloneye
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Here is a tweet by JB.
Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 5m
See the GFS is starting to show the tropics coming to life. Until ECMWF concurs, call me skeptical
Well,he may not know that this is the same model that's missed every tropical cyclone this year in the Atlantic and said that Utor would be a 1002mb tropical cyclone at peak a few days ago.
Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 5m
See the GFS is starting to show the tropics coming to life. Until ECMWF concurs, call me skeptical
Well,he may not know that this is the same model that's missed every tropical cyclone this year in the Atlantic and said that Utor would be a 1002mb tropical cyclone at peak a few days ago.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
cycloneye wrote:Here is a tweet by JB.
Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 5m
See the GFS is starting to show the tropics coming to life. Until ECMWF concurs, call me skeptical
Well,he may not know that this is the same model that's missed every tropical cyclone this year in the Atlantic and said that Utor would be a 1002mb tropical cyclone at peak a few days ago.
glad you posted it. joe bastardi puts alot of weight on the euro.
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The EURO has been absolutely useless for genesis this year. I don't understand why so many people keep saying they will believe it when the EURO shows it. That wont happen until the storm has already developed and by then how can the EURO possibly be wrong? No wonder people have such a bias towards the EURO. lol
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- wxman57
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Nothing on the 12Z Euro. I'm looking at it in high-res with 3-hr time increments.
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Re:
BigB0882 wrote:The EURO has been absolutely useless for genesis this year. I don't understand why so many people keep saying they will believe it when the EURO shows it. That wont happen until the storm has already developed and by then how can the EURO possibly be wrong? No wonder people have such a bias towards the EURO. lol
maybe it just doesnt pick up really weak systems? JB may be looking for more, not sure.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
wxman57 wrote:Nothing on the 12Z Euro. I'm looking at it in high-res with 3-hr time increments.
I think the EURO needs to be un-graded this year. I like the old EURO from last year.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
wxman57 wrote:Nothing on the 12Z Euro. I'm looking at it in high-res with 3-hr time increments.
going out to the 22nd?
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- cycloneye
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Does anyone have stats of verification of the models to see how GFS/Euro compare in 2013?
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Why consider the ECMWF when so far this season it has had a bad record in the Atlantic when it comes to tropical development.
It missed the development of Barry, Chantal and Dorian, by at least some degree.
The 12z Euro does show a strong vorticity developing east of Nicaragua but it shows it to move inland into C.A./extreme southern MX eventually.
This is exactly what it did with Barry.
It missed the development of Barry, Chantal and Dorian, by at least some degree.
The 12z Euro does show a strong vorticity developing east of Nicaragua but it shows it to move inland into C.A./extreme southern MX eventually.
This is exactly what it did with Barry.
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- wxman57
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Note that the Euro also failed to predict the development of supertyhoon Utor in the West Pac.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
And the Euro has failed with some systems in teh EPAC too.
We have GFS, CMC, NAVGEM and FIM on board.
We have GFS, CMC, NAVGEM and FIM on board.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Euro hasnt exactly had much to "miss" in the Atlantic this year. The four named storms haven't exactly been powerhouses. In contrast, why not bring up the bogus storms the GFS and CMC have developed? For instance, GFS had a bogus TC/cane in the central Atlantic before Dorian. At least we have one conservative model.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
That's a bold statement. I like of the ECMWF attributes. I think it's an excellent tool!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Ecmwf has its validities. As rock and others have said over and over, it is dismal with genesis. Even it's ppv high res models never sniff anything out. It used to be generally more valid for tracks than the MRF/GFS because those had a bias for looking for exits into the temperate zones at 40, 50, 60, etc west and were always wrong. Because the European had a western bias for storms existing, people fell in love with it. It can track existing cyclones, When it recognizes them, but otherwise is worthless for the tropics when there is only potential.
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