Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The surface trough will continue to bring scattered showers to the islands today thru Tuesday as it moves slowly.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
513 AM AST SUN AUG 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND
WEST...WHICH WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY.
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED STARTING LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...OVERNIGHT WE HAD SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...KEEPING MOST OF THE PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS BUT
VERY LITTLE OVER LAND. MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT AS
WELL AS THE GFS MODEL INDICATES THAT THIS NARROW AREA OF
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MAY CONTINUE OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY...WITH
THE HIGHER MOISTURE JUST OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
HOWEVER...STARTING LATE TONIGHT...THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE THAT IS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING TO THE
NORTHWEST AND INTO OUR AREA. GFS MODEL IS SUGGESTING THAT THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE TO OVER 2.1 INCHES BY MONDAY
EVENING.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THAT ACTIVITY IS WHAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

THE ENHANCED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THAT IS WHEN ANOTHER INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...EXCEPT FOR A POSSIBLE
TSRA AT TJMZ AFT 11/17Z. EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. AN EASTERLY DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. THIS MAY CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AT TJSJ/TIST AND
TISX AFT 12/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO COVER MOST
OF THE AREA WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET THROUGH THE WEEK WITH WINDS LESS
THAN 20 KT EXCEPT NEAR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 88 77 / 20 60 70 30
STT 89 79 88 79 / 20 80 80 30

[Gustywind]

Strong showers and tstorms are abatting for 1 hour in Guadeloupe. Guadeloupe is under an yellow alert for a risk of strong showers and tstorms since yesterday night 11PM.

Hi Gusty
I see Meteo gp has us under green alert. I guess we'll get some of that weather too.

Yeah Barbara, i tkink that too.

[msbee]

Strong showers and tstorms are abatting for 1 hour in Guadeloupe. Guadeloupe is under an yellow alert for a risk of strong showers and tstorms since yesterday night 11PM.

Hi Gusty
I see Meteo gp has us under green alert. I guess we'll get some of that weather too.

Yeah Barbara, i tkink that too.

nothing here but cloudy skies

[cycloneye]

Plenty of rain will fall here tonight thru Monday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST SUN AUG 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE TUTT HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF FROM
CUBA EAST TO JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THEN NORTHEAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS GENERAL AREA UNTIL THURSDAY
WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS NOSING IT OUT FROM THE EAST.

AT MID LEVELS...THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ON TUESDAY.
ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO ON FRIDAY. BEST MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS WILL BE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAKER BUBBLE PASSING THROUGH ON
FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE FROM HIGH
PRESSURES IN THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE WATERS JUST
EAST OF FLORIDA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND
FLOW. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND AGAIN NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS APPEARED BY MID MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF OUR CARIBBEAN WATERS AND MOVED THROUGH SAINT CROIX WITH
WIND GUSTS OF 32 KNOTS OR MORE. SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOPED DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY FAJARDO TO CAROLINA AND FROM GUAYNABO TO VEGA
ALTA AND OVER MUCH OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO. WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS
WERE RECORDED AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN. SHOWERS
WERE CONSIDERABLY HEAVIER THAN YESTERDAY AND URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES HAD TO BE ISSUED.

THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA AND IS
EXPECTED TO PASS AROUND 12/12Z. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE BEHIND IT
UNTIL ABOUT 13/06Z. DURING THIS TIME THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

THE GFS IS SHOWING THE NEXT BAND OF MOISTURE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
EVENING TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN BEFORE...BUT MAY STILL TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IN ADDITION TO THE NORMAL AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY...THAT WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE NEXT WAVE
WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...BUT SOME
MOISTURE WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AROUND FOR MOST
OF THE WEEKEND NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA
AT MOST TAF SITE TIL 11/23...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TJBQ. EASTERLY
WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT PSBL. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA AFT 12/00Z INTO MONDAY...THIS MAY CAUSE
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AT TJSJ/TIST AND TISX. LLVL WINDS EAST
SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY THROUGHOUT
THE COMING WEEK AND SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
EXPECT IMPROVING WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 78 89 / 70 70 40 20
STT 78 88 79 90 / 90 90 50 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
858 PM AST SUN AUG 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF HISPANIOLA TO THE BAHAMAS
WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS. SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD MON
AND HOLD THRU TUE. ANOTHER TUTT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED THRU
THU. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...BLENDED TPW AND CIRA
LPW PRODUCTS AND MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF A
TROPICAL WAVE OVR THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS ALONG 64W.
THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD NEXT 24 HRS BRINGING ACTIVE WX
MAINLY TO THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. WAVE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT 24 HRS BUT BULK OF THE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OVR CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. A CLOSE
LOOK AT 850-700 MB T-TD FROM THE 18Z GFS SHOWS SIG DEPRESSIONS OVR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF PR MONDAY WITH THE SMALLEST DEPRESSIONS OVR
THE CARIB COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION...DENSE MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND PREVENT THE FORMATION OF A
SEA BREEZE CYCLE. THE 18Z RUN OF THE WRF-NMM SHOWS A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVR NORTHEAST PR BETWEEN 12Z-15Z.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE AREA MON NIGHT BUT
DENSE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH AT
LEAST TUE NIGHT POSSIBLY INTO WED. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT LOTS OF
CLOUDS INTO WED. ON WED...MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ERODING
QUICKLY UNDER UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON WEST SIDE OF ANOTHER
TUTT. QUIET PATTERN LOOKS TO LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH A WEAK WAVE MAY BRING SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN
FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA SPRG NWD TONITE BUT IS UP IN THE AIR AS TO
HOW FAR. TISX/TNCM/TKPK ARE MOST LIKELY TO HV PDS MVFR/ISOLD IFR.
OTHW PROB VFR WI ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT WHILE TJMZ MOST LIKELY
MON AFT WI OBSCG MTNS. WINDS BLO FL100 E 15-25 KT BCMG ESE LATE
TONITE INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND MON WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. OTHERWISE...SEAS
3-5 FT AND WINDS 15- 20 KT BUT WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 88 81 88 / 60 40 30 30
STT 81 88 82 90 / 60 40 30 30

[Gustywind]

Plenty of rain will fall here tonight thru Monday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST SUN AUG 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE TUTT HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF FROM
CUBA EAST TO JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THEN NORTHEAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS GENERAL AREA UNTIL THURSDAY
WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS NOSING IT OUT FROM THE EAST.

AT MID LEVELS...THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ON TUESDAY.
ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO ON FRIDAY. BEST MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS WILL BE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAKER BUBBLE PASSING THROUGH ON
FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE FROM HIGH
PRESSURES IN THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE WATERS JUST
EAST OF FLORIDA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND
FLOW. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND AGAIN NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS APPEARED BY MID MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF OUR CARIBBEAN WATERS AND MOVED THROUGH SAINT CROIX WITH
WIND GUSTS OF 32 KNOTS OR MORE. SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOPED DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY FAJARDO TO CAROLINA AND FROM GUAYNABO TO VEGA
ALTA AND OVER MUCH OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO. WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS
WERE RECORDED AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN. SHOWERS
WERE CONSIDERABLY HEAVIER THAN YESTERDAY AND URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES HAD TO BE ISSUED.

THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA AND IS
EXPECTED TO PASS AROUND 12/12Z. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE BEHIND IT
UNTIL ABOUT 13/06Z. DURING THIS TIME THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

THE GFS IS SHOWING THE NEXT BAND OF MOISTURE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
EVENING TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN BEFORE...BUT MAY STILL TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IN ADDITION TO THE NORMAL AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY...THAT WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE NEXT WAVE
WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...BUT SOME
MOISTURE WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AROUND FOR MOST
OF THE WEEKEND NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA
AT MOST TAF SITE TIL 11/23...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TJBQ. EASTERLY
WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT PSBL. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA AFT 12/00Z INTO MONDAY...THIS MAY CAUSE
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AT TJSJ/TIST AND TISX. LLVL WINDS EAST
SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY THROUGHOUT
THE COMING WEEK AND SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
EXPECT IMPROVING WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 78 89 / 70 70 40 20
STT 78 88 79 90 / 90 90 50 40

Ok, so be aware as usual and keep us informed... Superman

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
858 PM AST SUN AUG 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF HISPANIOLA TO THE BAHAMAS
WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS. SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD MON
AND HOLD THRU TUE. ANOTHER TUTT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED THRU
THU. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...BLENDED TPW AND CIRA
LPW PRODUCTS AND MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF A
TROPICAL WAVE OVR THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS ALONG 64W.
THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD NEXT 24 HRS BRINGING ACTIVE WX
MAINLY TO THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. WAVE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT 24 HRS BUT BULK OF THE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OVR CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. A CLOSE
LOOK AT 850-700 MB T-TD FROM THE 18Z GFS SHOWS SIG DEPRESSIONS OVR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF PR MONDAY WITH THE SMALLEST DEPRESSIONS OVR
THE CARIB COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION...DENSE MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND PREVENT THE FORMATION OF A
SEA BREEZE CYCLE. THE 18Z RUN OF THE WRF-NMM SHOWS A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVR NORTHEAST PR BETWEEN 12Z-15Z.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE AREA MON NIGHT BUT
DENSE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH AT
LEAST TUE NIGHT POSSIBLY INTO WED. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT LOTS OF
CLOUDS INTO WED. ON WED...MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ERODING
QUICKLY UNDER UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON WEST SIDE OF ANOTHER
TUTT. QUIET PATTERN LOOKS TO LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH A WEAK WAVE MAY BRING SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN
FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA SPRG NWD TONITE BUT IS UP IN THE AIR AS TO
HOW FAR. TISX/TNCM/TKPK ARE MOST LIKELY TO HV PDS MVFR/ISOLD IFR.
OTHW PROB VFR WI ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT WHILE TJMZ MOST LIKELY
MON AFT WI OBSCG MTNS. WINDS BLO FL100 E 15-25 KT BCMG ESE LATE
TONITE INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND MON WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. OTHERWISE...SEAS
3-5 FT AND WINDS 15- 20 KT BUT WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 88 81 88 / 60 40 30 30
STT 81 88 82 90 / 60 40 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will move thru PR today as a Tropical Wave moves west mainly to our south.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST MON AUG 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO RETROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY...AS SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDS FROM
THE EAST. AN EASTERLY DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
ANOTHER TUTT EXPECTED TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH
SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS AFOREMENTIONED EASTERLY DISTURBANCE
INTERACTS WITH RETROGRESSING TUTT. THE RISK OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...EASTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS U.S.V.I. THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME SHOWERS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY AS EASTERLY DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST...HOWEVER AFTERNOON CONVECTION
SHOULD BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...THEREFORE A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN WITH TRADE WIND
SHOWERS AND LOCALLY INDUCED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED NEAR 50W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT NO MAJOR IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. IN FACT...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST A DRYING TREND
BY MID WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT SIDE OF ANOTHER TUTT
PREVAILS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A GENERALLY
FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH...ANOTHER WAVE MAY BRING SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES
OF RAIN NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT THE LOCAL TERMINALS BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
SEVERITY OR PERSISTENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE AS MOST OF THE CONVECTION
IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS NEAR
TJMZ/TJBQ AFTER 12/18Z...WHERE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LIKELY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10-15 KTS AND
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE...SEAS 3-5 FT AND WINDS 15-
21 KT BUT WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 80 88 80 / 60 30 30 20
STT 88 82 90 82 / 60 30 30 10

[cycloneye]

Forecast for different islands in Caribbean

http://www.antiguamet.com/

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST MON AUG 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE TUTT LOW TO THE NORTHWEST WILL
MOVE WEST WHILE A WEAK LOW WILL PINCH OFF OF THE LOW NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA AND MOVE OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE BY MID WEEK. THIS
TROUGH WILL THEN PASS OVER THE AREA AND BE REPLACED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BY SATURDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC RIDGES INTO
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON THURSDAY AND PASSES OVER
THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. A WEAKER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
FOLLOWING MONDAY. AFTER GOOD MOISTURE CLEARS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...THE MID LEVELS ARE DRY UNTIL FRIDAY AND DRY AGAIN ON
SATURDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO FLORIDA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...AND
MAINTAINS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
MOISTURE DIMINISHES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT A TROPICAL
WAVE BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY THAT NOW LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FOLLOWING TUESDAY. ANY LOWS THAT MOVE OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST QUICKLY DEGRADE INTO TROPICAL WAVES DURING THE NEXT
10 DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS NOT AS
WIDESPREAD TODAY AS YESTERDAY...BUT SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DID
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND BETWEEN GUAYNABO AND TOA
ALTA. MOST AMOUNTS AFTER 6 AM AST WERE LESS THAN ONE INCH. THE
TROPICAL WAVE WAS MOST INTENSE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EVEN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS...HENCE ACTIVITY
WAS LIMITED EVEN WHEN IT PASSED THROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING.
MOISTURE WILL NOT IMMEDIATELY CLEAR OUT ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND
MIMIC IMAGERY SO ACTIVITY WILL ALSO LINGER INTO TOMORROW AND EVEN
WEDNESDAY. THE DRIEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
STILL GENERALLY LACKING AFTER TUESDAY AND WILL GENERATE ONLY MODERATE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT 8 DAYS. BANDS OF MODEST
MOISTURE IN WEAK TROUGHS AT LOWER LEVELS TEND TO WEAKEN BEFORE
THEY ARE FULLY ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DUE TO MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. LOCAL AND ISOLATED
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
FRIDAY THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS TJMZ THROUGH AT LEAST 12/22Z. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10-15
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...ALTHOUGH WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 79 89 / 40 40 20 20
STT 79 90 80 91 / 50 50 10 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather in general is expected for PR today but by next Friday a large Tropical Wave (Pouch 20L) will increase the showers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
502 AM AST TUE AUG 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 60W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OVER LAND AREAS. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE
EAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS.

A TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH TRADE WIND
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO/USVI THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY SHALLOW CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...PASSING SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED
NEAR 60W MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...HOWEVER NO MAJOR IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

A DRYING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT
SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT PREVAILS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH GFS AND WRF GUIDANCE SUGGESTED TPW VALUES DROPPING NEAR
1.5 INCHES BY THURSDAY...THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING TO INDUCE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THE DRIEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE THURSDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED BEFORE 13/16Z ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS WITH ISOLD PASSING SHRA. AFTER 13/16Z...INCREASING LLVL
CLOUDS OVER PR MAY CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS...ALSO TSRA DEVELOPMENT
IS LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR...LIKELY
AFFECTING TJMZ AND POSSIBLY TJBQ SOMETIME BETWEEN 13/16Z AND
13/22Z...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDS AT TJMZ AND POSSIBLY TJBQ. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSRA ELSEWHERE. EASTERLY WINDS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AT 10-15 KTS AND GUSTY AFTER 13/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET AND WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 90 81 / 30 20 20 20
STT 90 80 91 80 / 50 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

There are two new invests that are in the maps,one in Western Caribbean and the other in Eastern Atlantic so let's watch both areas.

[cycloneye]

NEWS RELEASE

Tuesday, August 13, 2013 – 12:00 noon

***FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PARISHES ***

The Meteorological Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for low-lying and flood-prone areas of St. Thomas, Kingston, St Andrew, St Catherine, Clarendon and Manchester, with immediate effect.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH means that flash flooding is possible and residents are advised to take precautionary measures, keep informed by listening to further releases from the Meteorological Service and be ready for quick action if flooding is observed or if a Warning is issued.

A Trough which extends just west of Jamaica from an area of Low Pressure near Costa Rica, has been influencing weather conditions across the central and western Caribbean, including Jamaica,

Satellite imagery and radar reports indicate that moderate and occasionally heavy showers and thunderstorms have been occurring across mainly southern parishes since early this morning.

Showers and thunderstorms should continue to affect these parishes and spread to other parishes today and into Wednesday, as the area of unstable weather moves slowly toward the west. Flash flooding is, therefore, possible as rainfall amounts could reach 50-75 millimetres (2-3 inches) today.

Fishers and other marine interests are also urged to exercise caution as strong winds are likely in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms, over the waters, particularly south of the island..


The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the situation.


ram

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
242 PM AST TUE AUG 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. VERY LITTLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED. SOME SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS BEGAN
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AROUND 2 PM AST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR
NORTH...WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
FEATURE.

LATEST SATELITE IMAGES AS WELL LATEST TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMMS
SHOWS AN AREA OF DRIER AIR EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS AREA
OF DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND THURSDAY. THEREFORE...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE BOTH
DAYS...MAINLY ON THURSDAY. FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...AN AREA OF
MOISTURE AT LOW LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. IN THE LONG RANGE...MODELS SHOWS A LITTLE MORE ACTIVITY
OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AS WE
ENTER THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...SRA DEVELOPMENT...AFFECTING THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR...TJMZ AND TJBQ THRU 13/22Z. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDS AT
TJMZ AND POSSIBLY TJBQ. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS AT LOCAL TAF SITES
WITH ISOLD PASSING SHRA. EASTERLY WINDS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AT 10-20 KTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 80 88 / 20 20 20 20
STT 80 91 80 91 / 10 10 20 20

[Caribwxgirl]

Just a quick update. The rain has been very heavy all day from about 3pm most of the street lights near my office came on it was so dark. It's still pouring now I suspect by morning there may be flooding reports.

[Gustywind]

Just a quick update. The rain has been very heavy all day from about 3pm most of the street lights near my office came on it was so dark. It's still pouring now I suspect by morning there may be flooding reports.

Hi. Thanks for that precious report from your beautiful island of Jamaica. Be aware and continue to keep us informed.

[Caribwxgirl]

Just a quick update. The rain has been very heavy all day from about 3pm most of the street lights near my office came on it was so dark. It's still pouring now I suspect by morning there may be flooding reports.

Hi. Thanks for that precious report from your beautiful island of Jamaica. Be aware and continue to keep us informed.

I'll definitely do that

[Gustywind]

Caribwxgirl, here is the latest weather forecast of the day at 4PM and the Warnings/ News.

http://www.metservice.gov.jm/forecast.asp

August 13, 2013 at 4:00 p.m.

LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST

SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… A Trough extends just west of Jamaica from an area of Low Pressure east of Costa Rica.

Comment
The Area of Low of Low Pressure is expected to move to the western Caribbean over the next two to three days.

24-HOUR FORECAST
Tonight… Showers and thunderstorms are expected over sections of most parishes.
Tomorrow… Gradual decrease in showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon.

Minimum temperatures expected tonight:
Kingston... 24 degrees Celsius
Montego Bay... 24 degrees Celsius

3-DAY FORECAST (after tomorrow)
Thu… Windy with isolated showers.
Fri… Mainly sunny and windy.
Sat… Mainly sunny morning. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over central and western parishes during the afternoon.

Regionally… Cloudy conditions with embedded showers and thunderstorms
extend from the Greater Antilles to Central America.

ram


NEWS RELEASE

Tuesday, August 13, 2013 – 5:00p.m.

http://www.metservice.gov.jm/news.asp?id=16006

*** FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PARISHES ***


The Meteorological Service has expanded the Flash Flood Watch for low-lying and flood-prone areas to now include St. Mary and Portland, while continuing it for St. Thomas, Kingston, St Andrew, St Catherine, Clarendon and Manchester, until 5:00 a.m. tomorrow.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH means that flash flooding is possible and residents are advised to take precautionary measures, keep informed by listening to further releases from the Meteorological Service and be ready for quick action if flooding is observed or if a Warning is issued.

The Trough which extends just west of Jamaica from an area of Low Pressure near the Costa Rica/Nicaragua border, has been influencing weather conditions across the central and western Caribbean, including Jamaica,

Satellite imagery and radar reports indicate that moderate and occasionally heavy showers and thunderstorms have been occurring mainly over eastern and south-central parishes, while light to moderate showers affected sections of other parishes.

Outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms which could be heavy at times should continue tonight and into Wednesday, as the area of unstable weather moves slowly toward the west.

The threat of flash flooding has, in fact, increased over the past 3-6 hours as rainfall amounts could reach 50-75 millimetres (2-3 inches) later this evening or tonight.

Fishers and other marine interests are also urged to exercise caution as strong winds are likely in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms, over the waters, particularly south of the island..


The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the situation


ram

[Gustywind]

Just a quick update. The rain has been very heavy all day from about 3pm most of the street lights near my office came on it was so dark. It's still pouring now I suspect by morning there may be flooding reports.

Hi. Thanks for that precious report from your beautiful island of Jamaica. Be aware and continue to keep us informed.

I'll definitely do that

Thanks to you ! We appreciate sincerely, us who live in the Windwards/ Leewards islands included PR

[Gustywind]

From an islander of Jamaica.

http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/jamaica.shtml

Flash flood watch for parts of Jamaica
•From: S G <sgweather2012 at yahoo.com>
•Date: Tue, 13 Aug 2013 16:47:44 -0700 (PDT)



The day continued to be very overcast, with rain on an off throughout the day here in Kingston. For the last hour, however, the rain has been falling very heavily and steadily. The Jamaican Met Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for parts of the island. I have copied it below.

**************************************************************************************************************



Tuesday, August 13, 2013 – 5:00p.m.



*** FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PARISHES ***


The Meteorological Service has expanded the Flash Flood Watch for low-lying and flood-prone areas to now include St. Mary and Portland, while continuing it for St. Thomas, Kingston, St Andrew, St Catherine, Clarendon and Manchester, until 5:00 a.m. tomorrow.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH means that flash flooding is possible and residents are advised to take precautionary measures, keep informed by listening to further releases from the Meteorological Service and be ready for quick action if flooding is observed or if a Warning is issued.

The Trough which extends just west of Jamaica from an area of Low Pressure near the Costa Rica/Nicaragua border, has been influencing weather conditions across the central and western Caribbean, including Jamaica,

Satellite imagery and radar reports indicate that moderate and occasionally heavy showers and thunderstorms have been occurring mainly over eastern and south-central parishes, while light to moderate showers affected sections of other parishes.

Outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms which could be heavy at times should continue tonight and into Wednesday, as the area of unstable weather moves slowly toward the west.

The threat of flash flooding has, in fact, increased over the past 3-6 hours as rainfall amounts could reach 50-75 millimetres (2-3 inches) later this evening or tonight.

Fishers and other marine interests are also urged to exercise caution as strong winds are likely in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms, over the waters, particularly south of the island..


The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the situation



ram




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------