ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

[Dave]

Recon TCPOD:

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=115428

[perk]

actually it is a shift towards LA now as compared to FL panhandle....and its probably not done shifting...

Like I said yesterday, the FL Panhandle, S. AL and MS coasts are going to get a lot of rain regardless of whether or not a TC heads in this direction. This is JMHO but I think 92L is going to be much more of a rain threat than a wind threat so while it could potentially exacerbate flooding up here in our neck of the woods if it came in our direction, it looks as though we are going to be dealing with the heavy rainfall Thurs, Fri and Sat. A TC would just add insult to injury...

That has not been determined yet.A southern track is still in play.

[tolakram]

actually it is a shift towards LA now as compared to FL panhandle....and its probably not done shifting...

Like I said yesterday, the FL Panhandle, S. AL and MS coasts are going to get a lot of rain regardless of whether or not a TC heads in this direction. This is JMHO but I think 92L is going to be much more of a rain threat than a wind threat so while it could potentially exacerbate flooding up here in our neck of the woods if it came in our direction, it looks as though we are going to be dealing with the heavy rainfall Thurs, Fri and Sat. A TC would just add insult to injury...

That has not been determined yet.A southern track is still in play.

Yes, it is, but it's important to see how the Euro now has a vorticity maximum that matches the GFS while the other models are drifting south or west. I really think the entire area needs to be on guard, but a more northern track looks to be gaining some traction.

I'm paying for at least a month of WeatherBell so I can see if Bastardi's comments match his tweets. The tweets are for show mostly, his more in depth analysis is pretty good .. or at least fun to listen too since I'm not qualified to judge good and bad forecasting. He's wondering aloud if the GFS will end up being more correct now that the euro is showing a more concentrated area of vorticity up near Mississippi.

[petit_bois]

actually it is a shift towards LA now as compared to FL panhandle....and its probably not done shifting...

Like I said yesterday, the FL Panhandle, S. AL and MS coasts are going to get a lot of rain regardless of whether or not a TC heads in this direction. This is JMHO but I think 92L is going to be much more of a rain threat than a wind threat so while it could potentially exacerbate flooding up here in our neck of the woods if it came in our direction, it looks as though we are going to be dealing with the heavy rainfall Thurs, Fri and Sat. A TC would just add insult to injury...

That has not been determined yet.A southern track is still in play.

It's starting to look more and more like we are gonna take another one in the gut here...
We are getting to that magic "72hr" window where all of the models will (should) start coming into agreement. Crazy to think we possibly have landfall of an unknown TC in about 80hrs.
I can't see the GFS being that far off at 72hrs with a system forecast just south of us at this point.

[tropicwatch]

I think they will be more in agreement later tonight into tomorrow morning. In the meantime, back and forth we go probably.

[supercane4867]

HWRF showing doom as always does

[USTropics]

Both the current GFS and Euro runs are showing a weak, northeast to southwest stretched out system that will probably displace the rain towards the northeast on their current track guidance (which current track prog would bring heavy rains toward the northern GOM states/FL panhandle).

[ROCK]

NAM 12Z still WGOM....

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=nam&area=wnatl&cycle=20130814%2012%20UTC&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fourpan=no&imageSize=M

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS looks slower and a bit further west than the 06Z now out through 75 hours:

[ROCK]

not in a hurry for sure....that trof looks to be washing out...ridging moving in...

[gatorcane]

Wow looks like the 12Z GFS splits the wave with the northern part heading towards the NGOM and southern part in the BOC....interesting.

Much different than the 06Z GFS. Out through 99 hours:

[USTropics]

looking out to 75 hours at the 850mb vort, the 12z GFS wants to split this into 2 pieces, 1/2 of the energy heads towards the panhandle of Florida with the frontal boundary and the other appears to drift off towards the BOC.

[ROCK]

just what the EURO was showing and what the NWS out of Miami released in their DISCO...

[ROCK]

12Z CMC is running...lets see if it blows it up to a cat 5 this time....

[CYCLONE MIKE]

just what the EURO was showing and what the NWS out of Miami released in their DISCO...

Yep. Looks identical to yesterdays 12z run. Unfortunately these models will be all over the place til there is a well defined coc. Regarding the cmc it might split this up into two pieces as well then we will have two cat 5's in the gulf.

[CrazyC83]

This setup kinda reminds me of Isidore and Opal...missed troughs with a storm stuck in and around Mexico...

[Red Seal]

Crazy Model Crazy

[South Texas Storms]

12z CMC through 66 hours right now:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_12.png
Looks like it misses the trough.

[Rgv20]

A healthy TC in the 12zCMC thru 84 hours..



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[South Texas Storms]

12z CMC similar to the 0z run. Landfall as a hurricane just south of Brownsville.
http://weather.gc.ca/model_forecast/ani ... 12_....jpg