ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[HurriGuy]

Panama City getting a much needed break. No surprise there have been numerous flood reports.

[HurriGuy]

I'm surprised majority of the intensity models make this a TS in 24-36 hours

[wxman57]

I'm surprised majority of the intensity models make this a TS in 24-36 hours

That's because they initialize it as a 25 or 30 kt closed low center, which it isn't. It's just a surface trof now, with dry air spilling in to its west and moderate (and rising) shear overhead. Slim chance of anything developing out of it. And they're also initializing it way down south where there's nothing to speak of in the way of convergence. Sure, shear is lighter there, but light shear alone won't develop a storm.

[Portastorm]

Overheard on the loudspeakers just moments ago:

Doctor McCoy, please report to Storm2K ... Doctor McCoy, please report to Storm2K. Thank you.

[cycloneye]

10%-10%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 17 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERIN...LOCATED WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS DRIFTING
WESTWARD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[ROCK]

yep I would call it Port...time to move back over to Talkin Tropics now...

[Blown Away]

92L has been a big tease...A nice cane in the Atlantic with an eye sure would be nice to track...Tired of these teaser wannabe's, hybrids, and weak TS's...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Welcome to hurricane season 2013. Haven't looked at model runs today, probably show another trough affecting the gulf coast next weekend

[MetroMike]

Just models showing little bubble blobs doing nothing off the African coast.....grrrrrrrrr!

[hurricanes1234]

92L has been a big tease...A nice cane in the Atlantic with an eye sure would be nice to track...Tired of these teaser wannabe's, hybrids, and weak TS's...

Totally agree with you. I am not saying that it would be better to have a strong hurricane affecting land, but it would certainly be interesting to see one form, especially one that stays in open Atlantic waters and strengthens harmlessly. As for 92L, it's pretty much finished, as there is no longer any deep convection associated with it. Dry air has destroyed what could have been a terrible disaster from a tropical storm, and turned it into a harmless remnant. Let's also not forget land!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ninel conde]

Welcome to hurricane season 2013. Haven't looked at model runs today, probably show another trough affecting the gulf coast next weekend

still a 10% chance!!

[wxman57]

Bones has seen enough.

[RL3AO]

And good night.

[JonathanBelles]

Bones has seen enough.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/itsdeadjim.jpg

http://youtu.be/_bHhpufKRjs <---I think it's time for this

['CaneFreak]

Bones has seen enough.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/itsdeadjim.jpg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rY0WxgSXdEE

[cycloneye]

And the very final official nail in the coffin!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al922013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201308180224
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Wow, all of that and not even a depression. So which model gets the award for being the most accurate on this miserable excuse of a storm this go around

[ROCK]

Wow, all of that and not even a depression. So which model gets the award for being the closest on this miserable excuse of a storm this go around

the EURO...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I was thinking cmc. I'm sure there's a hurricane out in the gulf somewhere

[TheStormExpert]

Welcome to hurricane season 2013. Haven't looked at model runs today, probably show another trough affecting the gulf coast next weekend

Might as well be Tropical Storm Season, not Hurricane Season.