Global model runs discussion

[ozonepete]

I never take the forecast numbers seriously, there's just too many variables we don't even know about. The numbers are mostly meaningless anyway. 2010-12 had very high numbers but seemed insignificant since there were no major threats or landfalls. There is no way that something significant won't develop this year it's just a matter of when.

I agree with your last sentence but didn't quite get the first part. ?? Last year Sandy made landfall as a very damaging cat 3 in Cuba and went on to be the second costliest hurricane in U.S. history; though it was a hybrid, there would have been no damage if there was no hurricane Sandy . And it was unanimously described before landfall, correctly, as a major threat.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

As well as you shouldn't scorpion. All it has become over the years is media hype to get ratings and the almighty dollar. Just like how they sensationalize storm footage. "We're reporting from the worst hit areas right now with biblical flooding going on, as leaves and other small debris float down the street in a couple of inches of water and these hurricane force winds are near impossible to stand in although my hat is still on my head and my hair is barely moving

Anyway that is another stout trough posted on the previous page for labor day. Can't wait to see the next two week outlook.

[SFLcane]

Current GFS run for 500 mb. for Labor Day Weekend.

http://img443.imageshack.us/img443/9436/7ig.gif

Ugly...looks very similar to last couple seasons.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS runs not looking the best for the ATL for next several days.

Late August and nothing here. C'mon.

[supercane4867]

00Z GFS fantasy land storms, probably will recurve

[WeatherEmperor]

Interesting. Lets see if future runs and if other models show this. I believe the GFS shows it moving off Africa at 240hrs so lets see

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[beoumont]

Current GFS run for 500 mb. for Labor Day Weekend.

http://img443.imageshack.us/img443/9436/7ig.gif

Ugly...looks very similar to last couple seasons.

Primo example of why one can't put much faith in 2 week progs. Below is 372 hr (same verifying time as above map) on next run (00z):

[Blown Away]

When is last time we had to wait until September for the first hurricane?

[HURAKAN]

When is last time we had to wait until September for the first hurricane?

2002 ... Gustav, Sep. 11

[Frank2]

I remember that day because my thinking was that it was a good distraction from the nervousness many were feeling because it was also the first anniversary of 9/11...

Frank

[scotto]

When is last time we had to wait until September for the first hurricane?

2002 ... Gustav, Sep. 11

2008?

[HURAKAN]

When is last time we had to wait until September for the first hurricane?

2002 ... Gustav, Sep. 11

2008?

In 2008, Bertha was the first hurricane of the season, in July.

[NDG]

When is last time we had to wait until September for the first hurricane?

2002 ... Gustav, Sep. 11

2008?

You bringing up 2008 is a joke, right?
If you don't remember that year had 3 hurricanes before September which 2 were major hurricanes, no comparison to this year.

[Big O]

For all of those on the ledge, don't worry too much about long-range TC genesis on the various global models. Focus instead on the MJO. It is forecasted to move into Phases 8-1-2-3. The last three phases (1-2-3) are hyperactive phases for TC development. Eventually, the models will pick up on this, grasshoppers.

[PTrackerLA]

It's just too eerily quiet out there right now to the extent where I'm actually afraid of what will happen in September. Just my gut feeling/opinion but I feel that with we could see a couple of landfalls just a few weeks apart...hope I'm wrong.

[Stormcenter]

The quiet before the storm?

[Dean4Storms]

Things will start popping in a couple weeks, cannot see this mjo riding in and things staying like this.

[scotto]

2002 ... Gustav, Sep. 11[/quote]
2008?[/quote]

You bringing up 2008 is a joke, right?
If you don't remember that year had 3 hurricanes before September which 2 were major hurricanes, no comparison to this year.[/quote]

I thought Gustav was in 2008

[PTrackerLA]

2002 sent Isidore and Lili on similar paths through the Caribbean and into the central Gulf coast from late September - early October. Everyone around here remembers Lili for the predicted 135mph winds forecasted for Lafayette just the evening before landfall and then the sudden weakening. Still ended up with a pretty good lashing around here as a cat 1.

[hurricanehunter69]

The GFS 6Z shows 3 named storms throughout the run. One of them being a hurricane ( Caribbean cruiser ). http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... imageSize=