Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[gatorcane]

I can't recall the last year I have seen it this dead heading into late August. Is it really Aug. 20th tomorrow?

Just look how the entire Atlantic basin is void not just of cyclones but of any disturbances and waves for that matter. Just alot of dry stable air for thousands of miles...

[ninel conde]

I can't recall the last year I have seen it this dead heading into late August. Is it really Aug. 20th tomorrow?

Just look how the entire Atlantic basin is void not just of cyclones but of any disturbances and waves for that matter. Just alot of dry stable air for thousands of miles...

http://img577.imageshack.us/img577/5271/2xd8.jpg

even in dead seasons at least some waves with convection can make it across the atlantic. all i can say is CSU, NOAA, JB, and many others must be expecting a humdinger of a sept.

[psyclone]

What a convectively vapid Atlantic basin. just pitiful. With el nino lacking, I remain convinced a switch will turn on at some point but as of now...it's time for the atlantic to show its hand. If we tiptoe through the remainder of August with no additional storms (no guarantee but certainly possible) we will be hard pressed to meet many of those lofty preseason forecasts.

[RL3AO]

We will see if the ECMWF verifies.

[Yellow Evan]

I can't recall the last year I have seen it this dead heading into late August. Is it really Aug. 20th tomorrow?

Just look how the entire Atlantic basin is void not just of cyclones but of any disturbances and waves for that matter. Just alot of dry stable air for thousands of miles...

http://img577.imageshack.us/img577/5271/2xd8.jpg

Looks like June IMO not August 20.

[gatorcane]

Here is another graphic where it does look like the wet-phase of the MJO could arrive to the Atlantic basin by the very end of August lasting the first 2-3 weeks in September (green shading over the Atlantic in the image). If this happens, could very well see a ramp up towards the end of this month and September could be rather busy.

[hurricaneCW]

September almost certainly has to be very active if those forecasts are to be correct, and the MJO will help greatly. If it's correct, then things will sharply pick exactly a week from now, nearly getting into the typical peak of the season.

[WeatherEmperor]

What a convectively vapid Atlantic basin. just pitiful. With el nino lacking, I remain convinced a switch will turn on at some point but as of now...it's time for the atlantic to show its hand. If we tiptoe through the remainder of August with no additional storms (no guarantee but certainly possible) we will be hard pressed to meet many of those lofty preseason forecasts.

I wish I could thumb up your post a thousand times. Really...I wish I could. The problem isnt with the number of named storms we have had up until now but it is with the preseason forecasts. So many agencies came out predicting higher than normal activity and higher than normal chances of the US coastline being affected by hurricanes this year.

Look, most of us have been here long enough to know that activity will pick up. Many people that are frustrated are those that bought into the preseason forecasts and they are like...ok well where the hell is all this increased activity and threats to the coastline that was predicted. The models show very little activity over the next week or two and it adds more and more and more to the.....well where the hell is the activity

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[Ptarmigan]

We have five named storm, which ahead than normal. This lull is something that has me concerned. The season could go into overdrive. I have seen highly active September and October.

[SoupBone]

We have five named storm, which ahead than normal. This lull is something that has me concerned. The season could go into overdrive. I have seen highly active September and October.

5 named yes, but not a single hurricane. And the 5 named were underwhelming to say the least. Ragged looking trash systems.

[Alyono]

We will see if the ECMWF verifies.

http://i44.photobucket.com/albums/f38/R ... _small.gif

means nothing without disturbances. Large scale favorable conditions do not create disturbances, they only allow disturbances that have already formed to develop

[Hurricane Alexis]

We will see if the ECMWF verifies.

http://i44.photobucket.com/albums/f38/R ... _small.gif

means nothing without disturbances. Large scale favorable conditions do not create disturbances, they only allow disturbances that have already formed to develop

But we've had healthy disturbances roll of Africa recently.

[ninel conde]

We will see if the ECMWF verifies.

http://i44.photobucket.com/albums/f38/R ... _small.gif

means nothing without disturbances. Large scale favorable conditions do not create disturbances, they only allow disturbances that have already formed to develop

yea, i remember seeing a satellite picture of ginger in 1971. the MDR east of 60 was dead that year but you could still see 5 strong waves all with lots of convection. this season nothing.

[tolakram]

What is this talk of nothing?

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... =e&prod=ir

[ninel conde]

What is this talk of nothing?

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... =e&prod=ir

i may have to up my numbers, lol

[caneman]

Weird reading all the threads. We're like a bunch of drug addicts needing a fix, yet, there is no fix in site for now.

[sunnyday]

The year without a hurricane?

[Stormcenter]

It is what it is and right now there is NOTHING out there.....no complaints here. I've been there done that enough in my lifetime when it comes to hurricanes so I'm not complaining one bit. I'm looking forward to the first "real" cold front in Sept. or Oct. Unfortunately before then I have a feeling we WILL have to deal with something sooner than later. IMO Remember it only takes one.

[HurricaneRyan]

This season is reminding me of 2011 a little. And as I recall, the first hurricane formed around this time...and it ended up being Irene. So let's not act like a bunch of brats just yet.

[stauglocal]

Was there ever a year without one hurricane??