Global model runs discussion

[supercane4867]

18Z NAVGEM

lol

[ninel conde]

18Z NAVGEM

lol
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_19.png

thank goodness!! we need one model to show fantasy storms.

[ninel conde]

An Erin type system

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ics_75.png

WOW!! maybe the MJO wont be as positive as advertised.

[cycloneye]

The worse thing of that run is doesn't show anything else on early September.

[hcane27]

The following is opinion only .... no representation of scientific fact or otherwise ....

It seems to me that most , if not all of us are forgetting that the Atlantic Basin (North Atlantic , Caribbean , Gulf of Mexico) is entirely different in its genesis properties.

1. The prevailing winds during tropical cyclone activity periods is from a very large landmass with a very large desert (hence dry air)
2. The areal coverage of the ocean in the basin is small and landmass-encumbered (read Caribbean Islands , South America , North America) (especially south of 20N).
3. Not only is there a large landmass to the east , there is one to the west , which in no small part affects the shear tendencies due to the downstream effect of the turbulence from the mountains , both the Rockies and the Appalachians , and yes I know the Apps are not nearly as tall as the Rockies , but they still impart air turbulence which for the most part is moving to the east into the Atlantic
4. The South American continent imparts no small measure of the same affect into the eastern Caribbean

All that being said , it is my humble opinion that due to all of these factors as well the abundance of upper-level lows and tutts and the like , this basin has one of the most difficult times to build a tropical cyclone from the seedling presented whether as tropical waves , or cutoff lows , or left over frontal boundaries. As I prefaced , this is not based on any scientific secrets that I have been able to unveil , just a process of sitting down and taking a long hard look at what is really available in the Atlantic Basin as far as positive/negative influences. And one final note , I am of the opinion , there's that word again , that the MJO is as much over-hyped for its "positive" influence in development , at least in the Atlantic proper , as most movie releases.

So go ahead and take your shots , but please keep in mind , this was opinion not at all to be confused with science , and everyone has an opinion.

[ROCK]

NAVGEM has shown that before and before you all mock it...lest not forget that it was the only one along with FIM9 that saw 92L way in advance of the GFS....

there is some 850mb vort down there already with an anticyclone over head....but really its pure fantasy....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[ninel conde]

NAVGEM has shown that before and before you all mock it...lest not forget that it was the only one along with FIM9 that saw 92L way in advance of the GFS....

ah, so soon we have forgotten 92L

[Alyono]

An Erin type system

WOW!! maybe the MJO wont be as positive as advertised.

the research papers indicate the MJO only affects the W Carib and the GOM

[ninel conde]

An Erin type system

WOW!! maybe the MJO wont be as positive as advertised.

the research papers indicate the MJO only affects the W Carib and the GOM

it doesnt seem to be aiding the gom or w carib on that map. i think someone said last week the pattern was changing and a upper high was forming over the tropics. i still see a rather large upper trof dominating the west carib and west atlantic.

['CaneFreak]

And the East Atlantic

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-10-05028.1

the research papers indicate the MJO only affects the W Carib and the GOM

[supercane4867]

00Z NAVGEM

Two systems

[ROCK]

NAVGEM is picking up on the east Carib wave that just cleared the islands. This gets support from the mooson Trof over SA....worth watching IMO

[Kingarabian]

NAVGEM is picking up on the east Carib wave that just cleared the islands. This gets support from the mooson Trof over SA....worth watching IMO

It did a terrific job with 92L!

[Alyono]

And the East Atlantic

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-10-05028.1

the research papers indicate the MJO only affects the W Carib and the GOM

that's a new study for sure. Will have to read it before I can comment further on this study

Other research though indicates the impact is on the WC and GOM

[ninel conde]

i assume euro and GFS still show nothing now out to sept 07? it wont be long now before the 384 GFS is going past the peak of the season.

[northjaxpro]

The Atlantic basin is just plain dead right now. It is truly fascinating just how quiet the basin is currently in late August going into September.

[ninel conde]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=180hr

not seeing any pattern change. flood pattern and east coast trof firmly in place and and pressures look rather high in the deep tropics.

[pgoss11]

It really seems like the high numbers forecasted will bust, but it could be one of those late starting fast and furious hurricane seasons where we have very active late season activity with more US hits. I'm not givig up hope just yet. Things can change in a hurry.

[Gustywind]

Don't let your guard by the apparent lull! Mother Nature has always surprises in store. Let's wait and see as we're entering dangerously the peak of the season.

[Ntxw]

Most guidance have converged that the MJO will slowly move through the EPAC the rest of this month. Euro, GFS, and Ukmet pretty much agrees on phase 8, beyond that (Sept) is where they now diverge. Some keep it going some weaken it into the circle. For the most part if there is enhanced MJO activity it will most likely be confined to the EPAC for the next 5-7 days.