Global model runs discussion

[ninel conde]

We have to remember that these model predictions out past a week are meaningless. In general, all these models are poor at genesis. The fact that the GFS alternately predicts 4 storms one run and nothing the next run is not surprising at long range. The fact that it is predicting something with some runs combined with basic climatology should be enough to tell everyone things will ramp up soon.

soon would be nice

[ROCK]

We have to remember that these model predictions out past a week are meaningless. In general, all these models are poor at genesis. The fact that the GFS alternately predicts 4 storms one run and nothing the next run is not surprising at long range. The fact that it is predicting something with some runs combined with basic climatology should be enough to tell everyone things will ramp up soon.

agree, Mark showing the 6Z GFS above with something in the med range is enough for me to see a fuse has been lit. There is a reason none of the big boys out there (CSU ect) have not back down on there predictions that much....

[Alyono]

12Z GFS still develops the system

Just weaker and it never reaches 55W... also slower to move to the west

[gatorcane]

Here is how the 12Z GFS ends at 384 hours. There is the weak system Alyono is talking about recurving in the open Atlantic. Other than that zilch on 12Z GFS through Sept 9th

[Hammy]

Euro is still showing development, which this simple fact that it is I assume is meaningful.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_0z/f168.gif
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_0z/f240.gif

[tolakram]

12Z GFS still showing an area of low pressure in the southern MDR at 150 hours. This is where big storms can form that the models miss, so worth keeping an eye on. It's a change from just a couple of days ago anyway.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2013082412&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[ninel conde]

Here is how the 12Z GFS ends at 384 hours. There is the weak system Alyono is talking about recurving in the open Atlantic. Other than that zilch on 12Z GFS through Sept 9th

peak of the season is sept 10 and nothing on sept 09. maybe the models dont think the MJO will mean much.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Euro continues hinting development east of the islands at the end of the forecast period.

12z ECMWF
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTRO ... ml#picture

[ninel conde]

im seeing what might be a 1012 mb area of lower pressure.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

The 12z FIM is also hinting something east of the islands within 168 hrs

[ROCK]

18Z NAVGEM confirms....2 systems in the MDR in the 120hr range. Good bet it will happen...

[sunnyday]

What is MDR?

[ninel conde]

What is MDR?

main development region or as i call it the deep tropics.

[sunnyday]

Thank you for explaining MDR.

[ninel conde]

Thank you for explaining MDR.

[cycloneye]

Because the models are showing development of what is now Pouch 25L emerging West Africa, the model runs will be posted at the Pouch 25L thread.

[blp]

12z GFS has twin hurricanes in the higher resolution portion of the run. Looks like an active period to come.

[northtxboy]

I really think the tropics are about to get intresting

[boca]

it looks like thr tropics will get interesting but the east coast trough looks like it will protect us.

[tolakram]

it looks like thr tropics will get interesting but the east coast trough looks like it will protect us.

Why do you say that? Are you looking at a map that shows the trough during a time when these storms are forecast to move through?