Global model runs discussion

[Ntxw]

We've gone from invest to pouch watching what has this season become, these models needs to get one of these things going. The MJO is strengthening like the Euro forecasted. The next week, week and a half will be critical for the guidance to pick things up, if they don't that would be troubling.

[ninel conde]

We've gone from invest to pouch watching what has this season become, these models needs to get one of these things going. The MJO is strengthening like the Euro forecasted. The next week, week and a half will be critical for the guidance to pick things up, if they don't that would be troubling.

euro shows a great MJO but at the same time pretty much says nothing will develop.

[tolakram]

We've gone from invest to pouch watching what has this season become, these models needs to get one of these things going. The MJO is strengthening like the Euro forecasted. The next week, week and a half will be critical for the guidance to pick things up, if they don't that would be troubling.


euro shows a great MJO but at the same time pretty much says nothing will develop.

The euro only had a 8% hit rate last year and missed all other development. So is this a big surprise?

To be clear, I have 0, zip, no idea of this season is going to get more active or not. It certainly doesn't look like it now ... but I won't be fooled into believing a model is accurately showing lack of development just because it's normal behavior works well during slow times. The euro is always more accurate when nothing develops. Statistics never lie.

[Ntxw]

The euro only had a 8% hit rate last year and missed all other development. So is this a big surprise?

To be clear, I have 0, zip, no idea of this season is going to get more active or not. It certainly doesn't look like it now ... but I won't be fooled into believing a model is accurately showing lack of development just because it's normal behavior works well during slow times. The euro is always more accurate when nothing develops. Statistics never lie.

If the statistics say they are terrible at genesis (which is a wonderful thing Jeff Master's did to track) then we need to depend on them more at what they are good at, after genesis. Thus far we are struggling at getting genesis in real time, can't get to step 2 without step 1 . Question is how are we going to find genesis longer range if the models are unreliable?

[tolakram]

Model consensus seems to be the most reliable factor in longer term development predictions, if I read it correctly. If 2 models are consistent at developing a storm then chances of it actually developing rise dramatically.

In the end, though, I like to restrict my model watching to 8 days (192 hours), and as this study has shown, it's really 5 days before any reliability can be achieved.

[vbhoutex]

Model consensus seems to be the most reliable factor in longer term development predictions, if I read it correctly. If 2 models are consistent at developing a storm then chances of it actually developing rise dramatically.

In the end, though, I like to restrict my model watching to 8 days (192 hours), and as this study has shown, it's really 5 days before any reliability can be achieved.

After being an avid model watcher and trying to make sense of runs past 192 hrs, I made that decision a long time ago. Of course coming to that decision was also helped by some pro-mets that told me I would keep what little sanity I have(after all I am a weather weenie)if I cut myself of at that time frame for any reality to coincide with the models and what they were/are showing.

[Alyono]

quite possible, no threats to the western half of the basin through mid September

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Must say even though I have come to terms the season is going to be a lot slower then forecast,IMO, I am shocked to see nothing through mid September. Seems we almost always have something out there to watch over labor day weekend. I know, I know just wait two more weeks

[ronjon]

I dunno. The 12z CMC sure looks like its responding to the MJO pulse big time. What with a 966 mb hurricane.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2013082912/gem_mslp_wind_atltropics.html

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Yeah I see it hasn't forgotten how busy the season should be. Surprised its not showing that in the gulf instead

[ronjon]

Yeah CM its the canadian I know. My point was its showing an extremely strong cyclone which it hadn't been doing - yes, creating lots of smaller phantom ones all the time as its habit. Interesting blog from Jeff Masters today which basically reenforced my point several days ago - none of these models are good at genesis - actually they're pretty poor.

"In 2011, the probability of detection of a tropical cyclone genesis event was only 9% - 23%, meaning that 77 - 91% of time, a tropical depression or tropical storm formed without the model predicting that it would form. The best model to use for looking at Atlantic tropical cyclone genesis in 2011 was the UKMET model, which combined a relatively high probability of detection rate with a low false alarm rate."

[ninel conde]

Yeah I see it hasn't forgotten how busy the season should be. Surprised its not showing that in the gulf instead

kate was a cat3 in nov, dont give up.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I don't know about the models but the waves coming off Africa are sure looking ripe.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/imagemain.php?&basin=europe&sat=m7&prod=irn

And we have an invest before the next wave comes off.

[Dean4Storms]

I just have a feeling the MJO is going to set things off beginning next week and most of the models will be late latching onto it.

[blp]

Well the pulse is almost completely in the basin.

[TheStormExpert]

It's really sad that are only hope and long shot at getting anything huge in terms of development is the excepted arrival of the MJO. Cannot remember any seasons at all where we were hoping the MJO would arrive around the peak in order to get TC development. Kind of had a funny gut feeling a month or two ago when everyone was going on about the MJO that we would most likely be relying on it a lot more than usual this year.

[ninel conde]

Well the pulse is almost completely in the basin.

and its done nothing and the models say it wont. it cant over come the eastern trof and upper low near the azores.

[tolakram]

Well the pulse is almost completely in the basin.

http://imageshack.us/a/img835/8031/26lp.jpg

and its done nothing and the models say it wont. it cant over come the eastern trof and upper low near the azores.

What can't overcome the "trof" and what are the models showing? I don't understand this statement. The image shows the center of the pulse in the EPAC still, while the west coast of Africa is still outside. Are you suggesting the MJO will stall due to a trough and upper low? Help me understand what you are trying to say.

[NDG]

Well the pulse is almost completely in the basin.

http://imageshack.us/a/img835/8031/26lp.jpg

and its done nothing and the models say it wont. it cant over come the eastern trof and upper low near the azores.

What can't overcome the "trof" and what are the models showing? I don't understand this statement. The image shows the center of the pulse in the EPAC still, while the west coast of Africa is still outside. Are you suggesting the MJO will stall due to a trough and upper low? Help me understand what you are trying to say.

Exactly, the MJO is just starting to strengthen & entering in phase one and forecasted to strengthen more as it goes into phase two.

[Alyono]

:uarrow: It's really sad that are only hope and long shot at getting anything huge in terms of development is the excepted arrival of the MJO. Cannot remember any seasons at all where we were hoping the MJO would arrive around the peak in order to get TC development. Kind of had a funny gut feeling a month or two ago when everyone was going on about the MJO that we would most likely be relying on it a lot more than usual this year.

Or it shows just how little the MJO impacts the Atlantic.

It's effects on the western part of basin likely do not allow anything to form. Instead, what may happen is that it enhances any pre existing disturbances if environmental conditions are favorable for development. Right now, conditions are hostile