Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 29 2013


TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N46W TO 19N45W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS WITH A 700 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY
MAXIMUM CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 15N46W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS MAXIMUM VALUES SURROUNDING THE AXIS
FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 37W-51W. CONVECTION WITH THE WAVE HAS
INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
13N33W TO 18N45W NEAR THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS.

[tailgater]

Convection on the increase near west of the center and shear has decreased a bit.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_timestamp.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[Hurricaneman]

I believe the shear with this one will not allow for development and not dry air for once

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[Alyono]

as expected, 0Z GFS does nothing with this wave.

It's been clear since Tuesday that this wave was not going to do anything

[hurricaneCW]

Never say never in the tropics, I'll continue to watch it, maybe it'll surprise us. I have a slight feeling that this could be a delayed but not denied season, which if true, would concentrate activity close to home as waves struggle to develop further east.

The fact that it's relatively globally quiet is a big deal though and I find it hard to believe that the Atlantic basin will be the only and most active basin this year. It's still a bit too premature to say the season is blown and we'll have to see how the entire month of September plays out.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Meanwhile, the Canadian model doesnt want to give up on it

[supercane4867]

Meanwhile, the Canadian model doesnt want to give up on it

[TheStormExpert]

2AM TWO. Notice the wording for the forecasted environmental conditions was changed a little.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
RECENTLY INCREASED...THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO A
REGION WHERE THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

[tailgater]

Could you post a link to that GEM model, is that the disturbance off the east coast?

[ninel conde]

Meanwhile, the Canadian model doesnt want to give up on it

http://i.imgur.com/sETI4fx.png

that model needs to be dropped.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 30 2013

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 20N
BETWEEN 40W AND 47W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N
TO 22N BETWEEN 40W AND 55W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WESTWARD...INTO A REGION WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

[Gustywind]

August 30, 2013; 5:47 AM
The Cape Verde Islands could see some unsettled weather as a disturbance approaches over the weekend.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-v ... 1683763362

[Gustywind]

Tropical Update

Michael Lowry, Hurricane Specialist, The Weather Channel

Aug 30, 2013 6:37 am ET

- Tropical disturbance over the central Atlantic searching for an identity

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/


REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC

The tropical disturbance in the central Atlantic is moving into a region of strong west-to-east flowing upper winds. These unfavorable winds along with lingering dry air will prevent development of this system.

[cycloneye]

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 700
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAINS DISORGANIZED. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD A REGION WHERE THE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[cycloneye]

Nice swirl.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 30 2013


AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN
42W AND 50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 22N
BETWEEN 40W AND 55W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD...
INTO A REGION WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[ROCK]

Meanwhile, the Canadian model doesnt want to give up on it

that model needs to be dropped.

why dropped? its better than the NAVGEM at genesis. It also gives us clues where something might form when nothing else is showing it.

[tolakram]

UK has something on day 4 and 5. I believe this is 25.



http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

[tailgater]

Euro has a weak low in the eastern Carb. then disapates it. But the EURO showing a L is at least something to watch.

[caneman]

Could be and since the UKMET is best a prediicting genesis, maybe we will have something to watch come Labor day after all?!