Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[WeatherEmperor]

In a nutshell, I think the heart of this season will be in October given all those factors. And this could be one of the few years with strong hurricanes well into November. That also means the strongest storm will likely occur with a letter deep in the alphabet.

Can you really say that with certainty? Do you remember the Csu 2 week forecast that just busted? The factors they were looking at caused them to forecast increased activity in the 2 week forecast. It appears from their findings that the Mjo did not develop as quickly as they had anticipated and other factors didnt develop they way the anticipated or forecast. If that just happened, how can anybody say that october and november will be so active based on whatever factors? Things can change so rapidly in weather.

Can we all(including forecasting agencies) just admit that we dont know as much as we THINK we know about the weather?

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[Ntxw]

I am truly baffled at what is going on in the tropics. The northern hemisphere's oceans are about as hot as they can be (minus ENSO) and the MJO is alive and well yet in none of the basins is there really the bundling of tropical activity that we normally see with such MJO waves, even with the earlier MJO wave in June/July had lots of genesis with the moving MJO/Kelvin couplet on a global scale. If it was just the Atlantic that would be one thing, something bigger is going on.

Meanwhile ACE has fallen again in the Atlantic down to 28% of normal, we're going to fall some more heading into September.

[SouthFloridian92]

It is possible that the active era starting from 1995 has ended or will end soon.

[hurricaneCW]

It could be one of those years where every basin is below average like some have stated, but I'm not ruling out a few strong storms for the rest of the season. I'm thinking the worst will happen well after the peak with all that heat content out there.

Caribbean could be a hotspot late September and October.

[Hyperstorm]

I kind of have to disagree about the low wind shear in the Atlantic as stated by Dr. Masters. If you look at upper-level charts over the last 10 days at least in the Atlantic, you'll see the unusually strong westerlies deep into the tropics.

If we didn't have that wind shear, I'd bet that the tropical wave in the central Atlantic would be well on its way to becoming a tropical storm and then a hurricane.

[ROCK]

I kind of have to disagree about the low wind shear in the Atlantic as stated by Dr. Masters. If you look at upper-level charts over the last 10 days at least in the Atlantic, you'll see the unusually strong westerlies deep into the tropics.

If we didn't have that wind shear, I'd bet that the tropical wave in the central Atlantic would be well on its way to becoming a tropical storm and then a hurricane.

its not shear....its the dry / stable air coupled with a SAL outbreak here and there. Globally I dont know whats going on...it isnt sun spot activity or GW.....I think they turned HARP back on in Alaska is my theory....

[USTropics]

I kind of have to disagree about the low wind shear in the Atlantic as stated by Dr. Masters. If you look at upper-level charts over the last 10 days at least in the Atlantic, you'll see the unusually strong westerlies deep into the tropics.

If we didn't have that wind shear, I'd bet that the tropical wave in the central Atlantic would be well on its way to becoming a tropical storm and then a hurricane.

its not shear....its the dry / stable air coupled with a SAL outbreak here and there. Globally I dont know whats going on...it isnt sun spot activity or GW.....I think they turned HARP back on in Alaska is my theory....

As soon as you posted this, 7.0 magnitude earthquake near Alaska

[wxman57]

I see a major change coming after Sept. 9th in the GFS & Canadian ensembles as well as Japanese model (my coworker tells me). Check out the North Atlantic panel and the "500mb Geopotential Height Anomaly" maps. Note that after the 8th, the ridge builds across the Atlantic but is located a lot farther north than normal. This is a pattern that opens up the tropics for development and also indicates less recurving storms:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/

[Kalrany]

I kind of have to disagree about the low wind shear in the Atlantic as stated by Dr. Masters. If you look at upper-level charts over the last 10 days at least in the Atlantic, you'll see the unusually strong westerlies deep into the tropics.

If we didn't have that wind shear, I'd bet that the tropical wave in the central Atlantic would be well on its way to becoming a tropical storm and then a hurricane.

its not shear....its the dry / stable air coupled with a SAL outbreak here and there. Globally I dont know whats going on...it isnt sun spot activity or GW.....I think they turned HARP back on in Alaska is my theory....

As soon as you posted this, 7.0 magnitude earthquake near Alaska

At first I thought you were being a bit toung-in-cheak, but then I checked Reuters. Well, what do you know -- I was not familar with Adak, that is interesting.

[ninel conde]

joe bastardi still hasnt given up!! he says the atlantic will take up some of the slack for the rest of the dead tropics. he further agrees with wxman57

[Hyperstorm]

I kind of have to disagree about the low wind shear in the Atlantic as stated by Dr. Masters. If you look at upper-level charts over the last 10 days at least in the Atlantic, you'll see the unusually strong westerlies deep into the tropics.

If we didn't have that wind shear, I'd bet that the tropical wave in the central Atlantic would be well on its way to becoming a tropical storm and then a hurricane.

its not shear....its the dry / stable air coupled with a SAL outbreak here and there. Globally I dont know whats going on...it isnt sun spot activity or GW.....I think they turned HARP back on in Alaska is my theory....

It's the shear that's causing the current lack of development in the basin. Did you know that SAL outbreaks are usually characterized by dry air and shear? That being said, SAL has not been a major issue for the past week or so. Again, it's the shear.

Look at the waves that have come off Africa the second half of this month and see how tilted they are. The tilt to the NE can even be seen right off the coast. Wind patterns in the tropics have not been favorable for development. There's been a gigantic (for this time of year) trough stationed for most of the month off the NW African coastline. That has created the ITCZ in Africa to be tilted northward. Once these waves were coming off the coast, they were heading right into the middle of the ocean near and north of 15N where the SSTs are not as warm and the dry air was a factor.

Now, since dry air is MUCH less of a factor, we have to wait for the troughs to displace themselves so that the waves that exist the coast can move west and not be interfered with hostile conditions.

Once that occurs, I'd be on the lookout...

[wxman57]

joe bastardi still hasnt given up!! he says the atlantic will take up some of the slack for the rest of the dead tropics. he further agrees with wxman57

I'm actually agreeing with Joe that if the ensemble predictions are correct (big "if"), then the pattern is changing to one that may produce several significant U.S. threats.

[TheStormExpert]

You know not to give up on this season just yet when "Wxman57" says there is still potential.

[wxman57]

:uarrow: You know not to give up on this season just yet when "Wxman57" says there is still potential.

Of course, the season could end at 6/0/0

[CrazyC83]

Has the MJO even come into play yet? It is favorable in the western Atlantic, but it seems to not be in phase yet in the MDR. It is a big basin, stretching 75 degrees of longitude...

[ninel conde]

joe bastardi still hasnt given up!! he says the atlantic will take up some of the slack for the rest of the dead tropics. he further agrees with wxman57

I'm actually agreeing with Joe that if the ensemble predictions are correct (big "if"), then the pattern is changing to one that may produce several significant U.S. threats.

he thinks you are right.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2h

Pattern though is one that should threaten US in Sept with storms as Atlantic ridge develops abnormally far north

[SoupBone]

:uarrow: You know not to give up on this season just yet when "Wxman57" says there is still potential.

I think Wxman is just trying to hold back the inevitable harsh winter coming his way, so says the Farmer's Almanac.

[CrazyC83]

Ridge abnormally far north? That doesn't mean US impacts so much as weaker steering currents.

[ninel conde]

Ridge abnormally far north? That doesn't mean US impacts so much as weaker steering currents.

nope. ridge centered over new england would be ideal

[SFLcane]

I see a major change coming after Sept. 9th in the GFS & Canadian ensembles as well as Japanese model (my coworker tells me). Check out the North Atlantic panel and the "500mb Geopotential Height Anomaly" maps. Note that after the 8th, the ridge builds across the Atlantic but is located a lot farther north than normal. This is a pattern that opens up the tropics for development and also indicates less recurving storms:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/

Interesting chris thanks