Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[cycloneye]

I'm not sure that is the global hawk

That may be the G-IV recon giving recon obs

That is it.

Friday, Aug 30, 2013

G-IV: Will ferry down to St. Criox from MacDill AFB. Take off for the 3 hour flight is scheduled for 1500 UTC (11AM Eastern).

Saturday, Aug. 31, 2013

G-IV: Is tasked by HRD to fly a genesis research mission taking off at 1300 UTC (9AM Eastern) from
St Criox and recover back in St. Criox. The G-IV will fly the tropical wave currently located at 14N 47W. No HRDers will be on this flight.

http://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2013/08/30 ... m-eastern/

[LarryWx]

Folks,

We have kind of an interesting situation regarding pouch 25 in the central Atlantic. Whereas the GFS and Euro runs (through 12Z) continue to do nothing with it, the CMC for at least the 4th run in a row has it become a cat 2-3 hurricane and threaten the US east coast. As a matter of fact, today's 12Z CMC actually slams Wilmington with a 968 mb hurricane at hour 216. See the attached map. Actually, it forms a TD by Monday morning 9/2 (72 hours) near the Leewards. Normally, I wouldn't give the CMC the time of day when the GFS and Euro are far different due to its inferiority and tendency to show false TC's. Therefore, I rarely post CMC maps and I'm not one to hype the tropics without a sound meteorological reason. Furthermore, I'm still not betting on it scoring a coup as of now. However, and this is a big however, the MJO is now getting close to an amplitude of 2.00 in phase 1 and rising further. If the Euro and GFS ensemble mean MJO forecasts were to verify, it would peak near 2.30 in phase 1 ~9/1-2, which is consistent with what the Euro has been showing for days. A 2.30 amplitude MJO in phase 1 would be the 2nd strongest MJO in either phase 1 or phase 2 near the peak of the season (8/21-9/20) since at least 1975! It would just beat the 9/5/81 peak of 2.21. Here are the two strongest as of now and the TC geneses while the MJO was 1.50+ in phase 1 or 2 just for the storms that eventually became hurricanes:



-3.08 peak 8/28/79: cat 5 David, cat. 4 Frederic, cat 2 Gloria

-2.21 peak 9/5/81: cat 1 Emily, cat 3 Floyd, cat 2 Gert


Actually, a whopping six total TC's formed during the strong 1979 MJO!


So, I'm wondering if it is possible that the Euro and GFS are not responding enough to this strong phase 1 MJO being that we're looking at about a one in 15 or so year event near the season's peak. Could it be that the CMC is responding more appropriately?

Any opinions?

Edit: I can't get the 216 hour CMC map to post here for some reason!

[ROCK]

I never discount the CMC as it does find a nut here and there. That said, the way the GFS and EURO have been behaving with genesis I wouldnt discount the NAM!!!

[ROCK]

RECON for a pouch....man that is something new

My bet is the NHC is nervous since many of these models are showing something except the 2 big boys. They have been saving plenty of money this year so why not run a mission on this.

[blp]

On the 12z euro you can track it over Andros Islandl Bahamas. A tad more defined than the 00z. I am still interested.

12z


00z

[Alyono]

RECON for a pouch....man that is something new

My bet is the NHC is nervous since many of these models are showing something except the 2 big boys. They have been saving plenty of money this year so why not run a mission on this.

These are research flights, not operational flights

[blp]

It will be interesting to see if the second tier models(NAM, CMC, FIM, NAVGEM) can 1up the top tier models(GFS and Euro). It almost never happens but in this crazy year who knows.

[wxman57]

I'm not sure that is the global hawk

That may be the G-IV recon giving recon obs

Probably G-IV as the Global Hawk doesn't have tail-mounted Doppler. I know they had planned to fly the GH out there this week.

[HurricaneDREW92]

WRF has this as a TS Monday (72 hours)

[CrazyC83]

Sometimes all the models are wrong! Consider Hurricane Julia in 2010 - most models dissipated it from a tropical storm; in reality it strengthened to a Cat 4 in an unlikely spot.

[cycloneye]

Canadian is an outlier.

THE WPC FORECAST BLEND INCLUDES THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF/ECMWF
ENSEMBLES FOR SYSTEM DEPICTION OVER THE PACIFIC AND NORTH
AMERICA...BUT DOES NOT ADVOCATE OUTLIER CANADIAN DEPICTED DEEP
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK FROM THE CARRIBEAN TO OFF THE ERN
US.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview_all ... n=6&max=61

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 30 2013

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 20N50W TO 6N50W MOVING W
AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 44W-50W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5
DAYS...AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

[Riptide]

The structure and 850mb vort is improving, it has that "look" of a developing TC with the comma-shape convection.

[ROCK]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

18Z NAM really likes PR....

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2013083018/nam_reflectivity_watl.html

18Z NAM really likes PR....

How about the Canadian?! Lol

[USTropics]

Even though it's not currently an invest, RAMDIS has Floater 2 setup to track this pouch:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tropical.asp

[OuterBanker]

Nam likes PR
Canadian destroys Wilmington

Thank God no one takes either one seriously.

[USTropics]

Saved visible animate .gif for today:

[Alyono]

that UL seems to be even more defined.

As i said 2 days ago, this is dead. The CMC appears to have an unrealistic upper level pattern, that is why it is developing the system

[cycloneye]

Off-Topic= There is big news concerning severe weather. Go to the Sticky 2013 U.S Severe Weather thread to see a big downgrade of a tornado