Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Gustywind]

From Accuweather.

Is Atlantic Hurricane Void Going to Last? By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
August 30, 2013; 5:19 PM

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... t/17238334

The 2013 Atlantic Hurricane season will go down in the books as being free of hurricanes through August. However, data suggests that interests in the basin may not be so fortunate through November.

According to Meteorologist Adrienne Green, "Since 1960, there have been five years when there were no hurricanes through August."

The years were 1967, 1984, 1988, 2001 and 2002.

"During each of those years, multiple hurricanes followed spanning September through October," Green said.

The average number of hurricanes during the five years (5.8) is close to the average number of hurricane during all years (5.9).
An average of about nine named systems with about six hurricanes occurred following August during those five years. Since the start of September, the 2001 season brought nine hurricanes, while 2002 brought four hurricanes.

While there is no 100-percent guarantee any hurricanes will form for the balance of the season, the odds are greatly in favor of multiple hurricanes through November with some of these likely during September.

Based on past data, there will be multiple major hurricanes and direct impact on land by named systems are likely moving forward this season.

Each of these five years without August hurricanes delivered deadly and damaging hurricanes later in the season ranging from the Caribbean islands to Central America, Mexico, the United States and Canada.

These include:

1967 - September Hurricane Beulah - Category 5 - 688 fatalities - $1 billion in damage


1984 - September Hurricane Diana - Category 4 - 3 fatalities - $65.5 million in damage


1988 - September Hurricane Gilbert - Category 4 - 550 fatalities - $7 billion in damage


2001 - October Hurricane Iris - Category 4 - 36 fatalities - $250 million in damage


2001 - November Hurricane Michelle - Category 4 - 22 fatalities - $2 billion in damage


2002 - September Hurricane Isidore - Category 3 - 19 fatalities - $1.3 billion in damage


2002 - September Hurricane Lili - Category 4 - 13 fatalities - $925 million in damage

The 1984 and 2001 seasons brought named systems lingering into December. The 2002 season ended early, during mid-October.

A lack of strong systems in the tropics to date this season means there is a great deal of potential heat energy that is locked up over the basin. This energy is likely to be released and transported northward in the form of hurricanes during the months ahead.

There does not have to be a major hurricane making direct landfall to bring great risk to lives and property. Dangerous and damaging effects from a storm passing near an area or diminishing while moving inland can bring tremendous flooding, for example.

Despite the lack of hurricanes through August this season, people should not let their guard down.

[psyclone]

gilbert was a strong cat 5 and held the Atlantic intensity record until Wilma upended it in 2005.

[psyclone]

Interesting to note that those late blooming seasons produced some whopper storms.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Just following climatology at this point. Of course things can change and we can get a hurricane or they can just as easily stay the same. Nobody honestly knows. Heck wasn't it CSU who just two weeks ago came out with their end of august forecast and said activity was going to be above avg levels. But we're supposed to believe just because in each of those years posted above had hurricanes there will ones this year. And that is assuming the long term ensembles are correct.

[Gustywind]

:uarrow: gilbert was a strong cat 5 and held the Atlantic intensity record until Wilma upended it in 2005.

Thanks for you books archives

[hurricanehunter69]

Yep, we had an unusually late winter and spring pattern. So, it makes sense that we could just as easily have a late running summer and hurricane season. It's been an ugly first half...no doubt. But I'll continue to faithfully back up the home team and bet on a big second half.

[CrazyC83]

Yep, we had an unusually late winter and spring pattern. So, it makes sense that we could just as easily have a late running summer and hurricane season. It's been an ugly first half...no doubt. But I'll continue to faithfully back up the home team and bet on a big second half.

Exactly the case, there were snowstorms and blizzards for the Midwest and frosty weather in the South well into April and even May for some.

[psyclone]

:uarrow: Just following climatology at this point. Of course things can change and we can get a hurricane or they can just as easily stay the same. Nobody honestly knows. Heck wasn't it CSU who just two weeks ago came out with their end of august forecast and said activity was going to be above avg levels. But we're supposed to believe just because in each of those years posted above had hurricanes there will ones this year. And that is assuming the long term ensembles are correct.

I think the point here is that years lacking a hurricane this late are quite anomalous, yielding a fairly small sample and yet in all cases, significant hurricane activity ultimately took place. I was not aware of this and find it very interesting. that doesn't mean this year will follow but it's an awful interesting tidbit. someone made a good analogy awhile back comparing cane season to winter where august=December. I couldn't agree more. sticking with that analog, the September/October timeframe is to hurricane season what January/February is to winter...no one is talking about planting the spring garden on new year's eve and it is just as early to bury the cane season. But that clock is ticking. the slow start would likely mean areas more prone to early/mid season action will see their risk already lower for the year but a place like florida, which actually has more hurricane activity in late sept and October really can't take much solace in the thus-far slow season.

[CrazyC83]

:uarrow: Just following climatology at this point. Of course things can change and we can get a hurricane or they can just as easily stay the same. Nobody honestly knows. Heck wasn't it CSU who just two weeks ago came out with their end of august forecast and said activity was going to be above avg levels. But we're supposed to believe just because in each of those years posted above had hurricanes there will ones this year. And that is assuming the long term ensembles are correct.

I think the point here is that years lacking a hurricane this late are quite anomalous, yielding a fairly small sample and yet in all cases, significant hurricane activity ultimately took place. I was not aware of this and find it very interesting. that doesn't mean this year will follow but it's an awful interesting tidbit. someone made a good analogy awhile back comparing cane season to winter where august=December. I couldn't agree more. sticking with that analog, the September/October timeframe is to hurricane season what January/February is to winter...no one is talking about planting the spring garden on new year's eve and it is just as early to bury the cane season. But that clock is ticking. the slow start would likely mean areas more prone to early/mid season action will see their risk already lower for the year but a place like florida, which actually has more hurricane activity in late sept and October really can't take much solace in the thus-far slow season.

If September and October activity are compared to mid-late winter, how would a very active April (and even May) for winter weather (as it was this past season) compare to tropical activity - would that be equivalent to an active November or December?

[psyclone]

:uarrow: Just following climatology at this point. Of course things can change and we can get a hurricane or they can just as easily stay the same. Nobody honestly knows. Heck wasn't it CSU who just two weeks ago came out with their end of august forecast and said activity was going to be above avg levels. But we're supposed to believe just because in each of those years posted above had hurricanes there will ones this year. And that is assuming the long term ensembles are correct.

I think the point here is that years lacking a hurricane this late are quite anomalous, yielding a fairly small sample and yet in all cases, significant hurricane activity ultimately took place. I was not aware of this and find it very interesting. that doesn't mean this year will follow but it's an awful interesting tidbit. someone made a good analogy awhile back comparing cane season to winter where august=December. I couldn't agree more. sticking with that analog, the September/October timeframe is to hurricane season what January/February is to winter...no one is talking about planting the spring garden on new year's eve and it is just as early to bury the cane season. But that clock is ticking. the slow start would likely mean areas more prone to early/mid season action will see their risk already lower for the year but a place like florida, which actually has more hurricane activity in late sept and October really can't take much solace in the thus-far slow season.

If September and October activity are compared to mid-late winter, how would a very active April (and even May) for winter weather (as it was this past season) compare to tropical activity - would that be equivalent to an active November or December?

I don't know. I think of real cane season as August-October and throw in the towel @ Halloween. in my view we're nearing halftime overall but that figure really varies based on a specific location and whether that locale tends to get hit earlier or later in the season. For my location, history shows most hits between mid sept through October so the dead season thus far hasn't eaten into our most high risk time of the year. that would not be true of other areas such as the western gulf, for example.

[HurricaneBill]

1988 also produced Hurricane Joan, a low-latitude system that struck Nicaragua as a strong Category 4.

[Steve]

Yo psyclone,

Gilbert scared me more than any other storm. That goes for a lot of people I came up with. Everybody was wigging out. We all wanted to pay, but we didn't want Gilbert. Here's hoping the Caribbean and southern gulf don't see anything like that this season.

[psyclone]

Yo psyclone,

Gilbert scared me more than any other storm. That goes for a lot of people I came up with. Everybody was wigging out. We all wanted to pay, but we didn't want Gilbert. Here's hoping the Caribbean and southern gulf don't see anything like that this season.

yeah that one was something. Didn't do the Jamaica dodge either as it ripped long ways down the whole island but its most intense wrath was reserved for the Yucatan. I remain convinced that we'll get a burst of storms at some point this season. Time will tell but we've still got 2 months loaded with potential should the atlantic decide to produce. in the meantime the quiet weather is quite nice...i'm loving heading into labor day weekend knowing tropical weather won't be an issue. in 2004 Frances wrecked our holiday weekend as it pummeled florida. no such issues this year.

[Cyclenall]

This thread is going to grow to 100 pages by September 10-15 I bet . Still nothing to note and the Epac is churning out robotic garbage systems 1 by 1. Its been a historic August for all the wrong reasons and this looks to continue well into September. Its not that this is completely unheard of as a season, but its how little occurred in August and then the models are silent 8 days into Sept. For neutral conditions, this is insane. This is becoming way more lousy than 1977 as there was a category 5 occurring right about now. And yesterday this season set another dubious milestone of having no majors in both the Atlantic and Epac to date (beating 2003 at 18z yesterday), something that we haven't seen since 1981. Just think, Ronald Regan was in his first year as president the last time this happened. 32 years ago and that last date was during the -AMO. I'll expand more about this on September 2 as I look and track some stats I outlined on Wednesday. If we get to Sept.3 without a TC forming in either the Atlantic or Epac (that might become a major hurricane) we're in uncharted waters I think.

A call-back to the models thread, about wouldn't it be bonkers if no more named storms formed this season in the Atlantic and all other basins had almost nothing. The Atlantic ACE is sitting around 8 now and if that was the final total, the entire met and climate community would be embarrassed beyond anything we could of imagined. The lowest going back to 1950 was 1983 at 17 so 8 would be the record. If the Epac remained near its ACE so far, it would be at the bottom as well (since 1971).

Something I remembered just today was those Euro runs showing way higher than normal pressures across the Atlantic and Epac and another member brought that up slightly in another thread...could we be witnessing that actually unfold? I commented back way back then that there is less than 0.1% of it happening and the Euro is the only one showing it. I said that would shut down both basins at once and that would be unprecedented and inconceivable. Its a match . One thing I don't get though is why no one is bringing it up anymore after going crazy in June about it, everyone is searching for answers yet I rarely read about it now for some reason. I'm out of the loop on this factor right now.

[Scorpion]

I'm guessing that we are back in the inactive phase again which didn't occur in the age of the internet and forums. It's too bad the active seasons got me so into hurricanes, that's alright I guess I'll have to focus on the other aspects of weather that interest me.

[tolakram]

Something I remembered just today was those Euro runs showing way higher than normal pressures across the Atlantic and Epac and another member brought that up slightly in another thread...could we be witnessing that actually unfold? I commented back way back then that there is less than 0.1% of it happening and the Euro is the only one showing it. I said that would shut down both basins at once and that would be unprecedented and inconceivable. Its a match . One thing I don't get though is why no one is bringing it up anymore after going crazy in June about it, everyone is searching for answers yet I rarely read about it now for some reason. I'm out of the loop on this factor right now.

The Euro was showing an el nino.

From this page: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

Normal to slightly below normal.

[tolakram]

Vertical instability, after rising above normal for 15 minutes (joking) is taking another dive.

[Cyclenall]

I'm guessing that we are back in the inactive phase again which didn't occur in the age of the internet and forums. It's too bad the active seasons got me so into hurricanes, that's alright I guess I'll have to focus on the other aspects of weather that interest me.

Except all basins are having a similar issue so I don't think that AMO is flipping because 15 years is pretty short for that cycle. I get your 2nd part though, start with tornadoes .

The Euro was showing an el nino.

From this page: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

Normal to slightly below normal.

I forgot about that El Nino part, oops . However, why would the Euro show the Epac shutting down as well for an El Nino? Is there a product that shows the entire month's anomalous for background pressures?

Vertical instability, after rising above normal for 15 minutes (joking) is taking another dive.

It may as well been 15 minutes, look at the results .

[ninel conde]

instability spiked and the MJO is here and absolutely nothing.

mr bastardi refuses to wave the white flag!!

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1h

Why am I still worried about the hurricane season. Left.Sept 500 mb anomaly when majors have hit. Rt Ensemble 4 cast pic.twitter.com/9ziQkf6Z4J

of course before we can get a major we need a disturbance with convection.

[cycloneye]

This tweet by NHC forecaster Blake says it all.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 8h
@RyanMaue well on our way to at least the 4th latest 1st hurricane of the Atlc season. No MH in WHemi latest since 81. Ugly