ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[ROCK]

looks semi- favorable right now given current convection trends....

it at the lower part of the wave I can make out a LLC taking shape. that GV flight didnt fly into it just around it. Not sure how they are getting broad from unless some ships in the area.

[HurricaneDREW92]

looks semi- favorable right now given current convection trends....

it at the lower part of the wave I can make out a LLC taking shape. that GV flight didnt fly into it just around it. Not sure how they are getting broad from unless some ships in the area.

I love how in 5 hours this system went from being considered garbage to a TD potential
.............its 2013 ladies and gentlemen

[Gustywind]

2 PM Discussion.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 18N53W TO AN
EMBEDDED 1012 MB LOW AT 14N55W TO 10N56W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW A HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT
NE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT
ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E
OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 49W-54W.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Im still in the "Gabrielle before weekend over" camp.

[gatorcane]

I don't see nearly as much upper-level dry air out there any more when I look at this WV loop. There is vitually no SAL at all looking at the latest SAL imagery from the Wisconson site. There is a ULL near Puerto Rico that is slowly moving WSW that could keep the shear in the moderate to high range for this invest the next several days.

Graphic I have put together:



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[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I'm fearing this could be the sleeper that becomes a terrible storm down the road.

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[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

AL, 97, 2013083118, , BEST, 0, 151N, 555W, 25, 1008, DB

[gatorcane]

Latest IR floater shot. Convection is on the increase with some deep reds showing up but is still displaced NE of the center of the broad circulation:

[LarryWx]

Well, pouch 25 has picked up convection and has been determined to have a weak closed sfc circ. with light west winds to the south per the research mission as noted and designated as invest 97L. Although the CMC continues to develop into a cane (at least 6th run in row...these last 2 don't hit east coast but aren't too far from it; the 12Z of 8/31 gets it to 971 mb status), it still doesn't have other support other than the latest UKMET. However, I did notice on the brand new Euro a subtle increase in convection and lower pressure around a weak sfc low that moves into the LA's. I'm still not betting on the CMC, but these latest developments are at least still suggesting not to completely dismiss the CMC just yet. Just to remind folks, the reason I won't ignore the CMC like I usually do when it is mostly on its own is because of a rare quite strong MJO phase 1 developing as we speak. If Euro projections end up right, this will turn out to be among early 9/1981 and late 8/1979 as the strongest MJO phase 1's since 1975 near the climo season peak. 1979 and 1981 produced six hurricanes, including three majors, between the two of them just while the MJO was strong in phases 1-2.

[HurricaneDREW92]

WARNING: TOTAL AMATEUR

Feeling like this could be a 55kt+ storm that hits the Carolinas.

[Gustywind]

First SSD numbers...

31/1745 UTC 15.1N 54.4W TOO WEAK 97L

[hurricaneCW]

That's the thing about these waves at the heart of the season, they can explode if they manage to find a more favorable environment. This one should not be dismissed as it could be a legit threat if it ever develops.

[Gustywind]

Latest IR floater shot. Convection is on the increase with some deep reds showing up but is still displaced NE of the center of the broad circulation:

Gatorcane, do you think it could be a rainmarker in the Leewards, PR even if 97L may not reach TD status? What are your latest thoughts about that?

[CrazyC83]

I don't see short term development here, but if it survives, it has big medium term potential next week. Keyword: if.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

If this thing can get into the Bahamas, where the conditions are forecast to be more favourable, it might stand a chance of becoming a hurricane east of South Florida. If it goes south, or even over the big Islands, it is finished imo.

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[HurricaneDREW92]

If this thing can get into the Bahamas, where the conditions are forecast to be more favourable, it might stand a chance of becoming a hurricane east of South Florida. If it goes south, or even over the big Islands, it is finished imo.

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Bahamas = Potential EC threat...ugh

[Sanibel]

Red IR burst on latest Floater frame.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

If this thing can get into the Bahamas, where the conditions are forecast to be more favourable, it might stand a chance of becoming a hurricane east of South Florida. If it goes south, or even over the big Islands, it is finished imo.

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Bahamas = Potential EC threat...ugh

I'm just thinking it is far to fragile to survive either a trip over the Big Islands, or through the Central Caribbean Upper Level Wind Belt.

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[gatorcane]

Latest IR floater shot. Convection is on the increase with some deep reds showing up but is still displaced NE of the center of the broad circulation:

Gatorcane, do you think it could be a rainmarker in the Leewards, PR even if 97L may not reach TD status? What are your latest thoughts about that?

I do think it can be a rainmaker because I don't see alot of dry air around the Leewards and Puerto Rico plus I think this invest will begin to interact with the ULL near Puerto Rico in a 2-3 days that will further enhance convection. Also there is a strong MJO pulse that is arriving that should give even more lift.

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[HurricaneDREW92]

If this thing can get into the Bahamas, where the conditions are forecast to be more favourable, it might stand a chance of becoming a hurricane east of South Florida. If it goes south, or even over the big Islands, it is finished imo.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Bahamas = Potential EC threat...ugh

I'm just thinking it is far to fragile to survive either a trip over the Big Islands, or through the Central Caribbean Upper Level Wind Belt.

Yeah hoping this ends up like Felix '95 and we dodge a bullet. Between Irene and Sandy...

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]