Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Hammy]

On a side note, I've never ever seen this storm2k board so this deserted and dead at the peak of hurricane season as I have this year..... I mean, usually there's something going on out there, other than a couple of Invests that may or may not develop.

I guess it'd be the same as if your respective sports team went half the season with nothing but zero-point losses, most followers would probably stop caring at that point.

[Cyclenall]

This has been the most annoying, depressing, frustrating, and biggest joke of a season ever!

That's what I said during the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season, then the 2012 one, now 2013...see a trend here? Equilibrium should have made this the worst hurricane season ever at least for the US and many other nations but here the rubber band is being stretched back so far its now into another galaxy. Its been said various times, its as if the 2004 and 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons have exhausted the basin's potential for the next few decades!

[Hammy]

There is literally nothing over Africa as far as waves go, its almost completely convection-free east of 98L all the way across the ITCZ to Ethiopia.

[ninel conde]

time set a record. no cane till at least sept 12

[ninel conde]

There is literally nothing over Africa as far as waves go, its almost completely convection-free east of 98L all the way across the ITCZ to Ethiopia.

yikes. i dont think i have ever seen it so desert bone arrid over africa than this.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... od=splitEW

[tolakram]

Look at Africa all day, not just a snapshot.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/IMAGERY/IR108/BW/FULLDISC/index.htm

Try the 24 hour loop.

If someone wants to show the wave train and is thinking positive, they choose a period of the day when convection is active. If someone is negative they choose a snapshot when convection is at a minimum. The wave train has yet to be an issue this year, it's the Atlantic that's the issue.

[CrazyC83]

The big question mark: does this come back and bite us in the late season, as in a nasty October?

[HurricaneBill]

Remember 2005? Despite how hyperactive it was, the deep tropics were pretty much unfavorable all season. I think the only Cape Verde storm was Irene and she struggled to finally become a hurricane.

[CrazyC83]

Remember 2005? Despite how hyperactive it was, the deep tropics were pretty much unfavorable all season. I think the only Cape Verde storm was Irene and she struggled to finally become a hurricane.

Difference this year is that they are dying right out before they can even get into more favorable terrain. The MDR is such a graveyard right now that nothing can even survive out of them as waves or lows.

[HurricaneBill]

The big question mark: does this come back and bite us in the late season, as in a nasty October?

The 2003 season in the EPAC comes to mind. The first 8 storms failed to become hurricanes. 7 of the next 8 became hurricanes and 2 struck Mexico. None were majors, however.

In 2001, the Atlantic didn't see its first hurricane until September 9th (Erin). That season ultimately finished 15/9/4, including two destructive Category 4 hurricanes (Iris and Michelle).

[ninel conde]

joe starting to back track on his forecast and find reasons it was atrocious.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 8m

Now that I have posted the Indian Ocean Dipole idea as a reason for the weak African wave train, lets see if other mets start mentioning
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Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 39m

Very cool water southwest of India has left the African wave train more feeble than normal, affecting storm genesis

i will say people on here have talked about the indian ocean for weks, and not just metros.

[HURAKAN]

we have been getting some nice waves, just to dry up in the Atlantic

[ninel conde]

we have been getting some nice waves, just to dry up in the Atlantic

TWC just showed how dry the african wave train is. meanwhile i think today JB has finally caved to the obvious.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2m

If something is going to beat me ( ACE way overforecasted this year) I am going to find out why and not let it beat me again. his ace forecast was 165 and then dropped to 140. will be miraculous if we make it to 60.

[tolakram]

He's just echoing lines in the premium video this morning.

As Hurakan stated, there has been NO shortage of waves exiting Africa and drying up. I can see amateur falling for that story but a professional, who just last week posted pictures of how active the wave train was? Than man flip flops more than a fish out of water.

He ended the story comparing the 50's, which had some years with ace totals in the 200's with 2005, with a similar ace total but more storms. So his thinking is that we are moving into a slower pattern with less storms, but still decent ace. Oh, and some of those storms will be big and a threat to the US, so stay tuned!

He's dropping his ace total for the season again, or considering it. His detailed forecast is apparently for commercial users only.

Africa today. Some of the missing waves are back.

[hurricanetrack]

At one point this season, I recall Levi Cowan, an up and coming hurricane guru in my opinion, saying the cold IOD was a positive for African wave train genesis, etc. Do you all remember this? He pointed it out in one of his videos if not more than one...

Now, consider Joe Bastardi who is saying that the cold IOD is a negative for African wave train genesis.

What say you all? They both cannot be correct.

[Ntxw]

At one point this season, I recall Levi Cowan, an up and coming hurricane guru in my opinion, saying the cold IOD was a positive for African wave train genesis, etc. Do you all remember this? He pointed it out in one of his videos if not more than one...

Now, consider Joe Bastardi who is saying that the cold IOD is a negative for African wave train genesis.

What say you all? They both cannot be correct.

I think it's more than just what phase the IOD is in. That's just a simple parameter both used to try to simplify a forecast. Africa has been wet I believe, I will try to pull up RH values from reanalysis later today. You must remember this is not just an Atlantic thing, all basins are feeling so it is likely something else if not multiple things on a bigger scale.

[cycloneye]

Phil Klotzbach=“At this point it looks like this is going to be a significant forecast bust”

Well,he is already throwing the towel.

“At this point it looks like this is going to be a significant forecast bust,” said Phil Klotzbach, a Colorado State University hurricane scientist who, along with William Gray, produces the most widely read seasonal forecast. “The challenge with this year, unlike some of other forecast busts, is that there are no obvious reasons why.”

http://www.news-journal.com/news/state/ ... dc29e.html

[Alyono]

At one point this season, I recall Levi Cowan, an up and coming hurricane guru in my opinion, saying the cold IOD was a positive for African wave train genesis, etc. Do you all remember this? He pointed it out in one of his videos if not more than one...

Now, consider Joe Bastardi who is saying that the cold IOD is a negative for African wave train genesis.

What say you all? They both cannot be correct.

negative is what we were saying at our office

[tolakram]

I don't like anyone to bust, but if you think about it, this is really awesome. They must find a reason, and this research will lead to better forecasts in the future. Exciting times for forecasters, even though there will be some ego bruising.

[gatorcane]

Well looks like as we approach the peak of the season of Sept. 10th, there is lack of Bermuda High feature again this year. That is good news as far as preventing threats from the East for the Eastern United States as Cape Verde systems are likely to recurve well out to sea.

Have to say am a bit surprised the Bermuda High is so weak this year as early indicators suggested that it could be quite strong going into August and September. I guess early indicators really don't mean much is what 2013 is teaching us not just as far as steering but as far as how active the season is going to be.

United States threats are probably going to have to originate from the Western Caribbean or Gulf this year given the long-wave pattern we are seeing.

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