ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[NDG]

Link to radar loop.
Radar loop centered near where the MLC is located.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/JUA.N0Z ... .48_an.gif

[Sanibel]

Looks like an intensification burst. Should be a TD right?


That NE convection should get drawn-in - right?

[cycloneye]

20130904 1745 17.0 64.9 T2.0/2.0 97L ATLANTIC

[Aric Dunn]

20130904 1745 17.0 64.9 T2.0/2.0 97L ATLANTIC

yeah they will likely upgrade if recon can get a better circ closed off...

[HurricaneDREW92]

20130904 1745 17.0 64.9 T2.0/2.0 97L ATLANTIC

yeah they will likely upgrade if recon can get a better circ closed off...

Question is now, will they find the required winds for it to become TS Gabrielle?

[Hurricane Alexis]

It looks like it's already merging with the wave to the east.

If anything the eastern system is getting absorbed, otherwise there would not be a large flow of southerly winds to the east. And that said, concerning winds, they have only investigated the weaker side so far.

I noticed my grammatical error now Anyways, I think it should be upgraded based on satellite and t numbers and probably recon in the short term.

[NDG]

I could see P.R. under tropical storm warnings for tonight or tomorrow morning, it is getting organized fairly quickly at least in the mid levels, it just needs to do it now at the surface.

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[brunota2003]

Waiting on the next pass by recon.

Until then, here are my personal thoughts:
T2.0/2.0 (with SFMR winds of 25 knots, not flagged and very low to nonexistent rain rate) set the intensity between 25 and 30 knots. I'd go with 30 knots, assuming recon hasn't sampled the strongest winds. Convection has been persistent, but not really organized in terms of consistently over one spot. As far as circulation goes, I was not impressed with what recon found, at all. What recon found is a very broad, and very weak, shift in winds. Definitely not what I'd consider a "well defined" LLC. Now, that may be (and very likely is) an eddy, but until another pass finds something better, you take what you can get. Everything I see points toward there being a well defined, established LLC within the next 12 to 24 hours likely, and thus, a TD. But as of right now, IMO, it meets all the criteria EXCEPT a well defined LLC. Until recon gets something much more defined, with stronger winds than 6 or 8 knots on both sides of the shift, I wouldn't upgrade it.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

AL, 97, 2013090418, , BEST, 0, 162N, 659W, 30, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[HurricaneDREW92]

Latest Saved Loop. TS Gabrielle @ 5pm?



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Zanthe]

Why is it we always have to wait for RECON. Just looking at the VIS loop GIF today, that certainly does not look like a tropical wave at all. Good circulation, persistent convection..what more do we need to call this depression?

http://img547.imageshack.us/img547/2752/bqi.gif

Remember Dorian's remnants? Looked beautiful on sat. but there wasn't anything.

[RL3AO]

Looks like a tropical depression on satellite now. Recon shows while its not great, I'd say its well-defined enough.

[gatorcane]

After this moves north out of the Caribbean, the big question is whether this will impact Bermuda. The CMC keeps getting close if not hits Bermuda run after run with some pretty intense scenarios. Fortunately the GFS is weaker and to the east.

[NDG]

Why is it we always have to wait for RECON. Just looking at the VIS loop GIF today, that certainly does not look like a tropical wave at all. Good circulation, persistent convection..what more do we need to call this depression?

http://img547.imageshack.us/img547/2752/bqi.gif

Remember Dorian's remnants? Looked beautiful on sat. but there wasn't anything.

This is not apples to apples.
Dorian's remnants did not have a closed circulation.
97L has a closed circulation and not being affected by shear like Dorian's remnants were.

[Sanibel]

After this moves north out of the Caribbean, the big question is whether this will impact Bermuda. The CMC keeps getting close if not hits Bermuda run after run with some pretty intense scenarios. Fortunately the GFS is weaker and to the east.

You can see a good front on the north Gulf coast on WV that should turn it.

[Zanthe]

Why is it we always have to wait for RECON. Just looking at the VIS loop GIF today, that certainly does not look like a tropical wave at all. Good circulation, persistent convection..what more do we need to call this depression?

http://img547.imageshack.us/img547/2752/bqi.gif

Remember Dorian's remnants? Looked beautiful on sat. but there wasn't anything.

This is not apples to apples.
Dorian's remnants did not have a closed circulation.
97L has a closed circulation and not being affected by shear like Dorian's remnants were.

I wasn't meaning to compare them in that way. I was just explaining why waiting for recon is good, because sat. can be deceiving.

[tolakram]

25 frame live visible loop.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-63&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=25

[lester]

Why is it we always have to wait for RECON. Just looking at the VIS loop GIF today, that certainly does not look like a tropical wave at all. Good circulation, persistent convection..what more do we need to call this depression?

http://img547.imageshack.us/img547/2752/bqi.gif

Remember Dorian's remnants? Looked beautiful on sat. but there wasn't anything.

there is something with 97L, not well-defined but something lol

[Aric Dunn]

18z Best Track.

AL, 97, 2013090418, , BEST, 0, 162N, 659W, 30, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

Thats quite a bit to the sw of the mid lvl circ on radar.

[msbee]

Latest Saved Loop. TS Gabrielle @ 5pm?

http://img842.imageshack.us/img842/209/9to.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Good Lord, my little island is right in between those 2 systems. I hope they don't decide to join forces right on top of us.