ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[SeGaBob]

NHC may be having a hard time putting the track map together with all the possibilities... And td7 is up on their site now.

[Bocadude85]

000
WTNT22 KNHC 042056
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2013

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO
TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SANTO DOMINGO
TO CABO ENGANO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO CABO ENGANO

INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 66.2W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 66.2W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 65.9W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.4N 67.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.6N 68.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 19.7N 68.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 20.9N 69.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.1N 69.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 25.3N 68.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 29.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 66.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

['CaneFreak]

This is now officially TD #7.

[Hurricane_Luis]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 042057
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
500 PM AST WED SEP 04 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 66.2W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

[alienstorm]

Hurricane Center has it going to out to sea, probably following GFS

[HurricaneDREW92]

For now NHC forecasting recurve.

['CaneFreak]

From the 5 pm NHC Discussion:

ONE COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE LARGER DISTURBANCE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION. THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWO FEATURES MAKES THIS TRACK FORECAST MORE UNCERTAIN THAN WOULD BE SUGGESTED BY THE OVERALL MODEL SPREAD.

[HurriGuy]

NHC is going with the recurve. I don't really agree with there movement of NW at 9mph, but at least we are all monitoring something. We will have to see what happens.

[jlauderdal]

NHC may be having a hard time putting the track map together with all the possibilities... And td7 is up on their site now.

not really..its actually an easy forecast...their track will be very good over the next 120 hours, less error than usual

[hurricanes1234]

Why were some of the models putting this close to Category 5 status, then?

[wxman57]

Track forecast is going to be problematic. That disturbance northeast of TD 7 is going to cause some havoc as it has really ramped up this afternoon. I am not so sure on the recurve scenario now if these two disturbances circle around one another. This is going to be an interesting next few days.

I really don't see such a recurve happening. I am shooting for a gradual turn over the next couple of days most likely impacting Florida and the Bahamas. Just my opinion though.

An opinion based upon what? I suppose there's a slim chance that the storm isn't picked up by the trof and it drifts around the eastern Bahamas before finally heading off to the north and east. But I'm not seeing a Florida impact threat.

[SeGaBob]

NHC may be having a hard time putting the track map together with all the possibilities... And td7 is up on their site now.

not really..its actually an easy forecast...their track will be very good over the next 120 hours, less error than usual

They do mention the disturbance to the northeast as a complicating factor so I think it's a wait and see situation...

[MGC]

This disturbance got its act going today. Just this moring I checked and it didn't look like it was going to develop into a TC today....wrong again. The radar presentation has really improved with convection now well established near the center. PR looks to be in its way though...so everyone in PR stay safe.....MGC

['CaneFreak]

A large area of -60 and -80 cloud tops over the disturbance north and east of TD #7. WOW.

[gatorcane]

NHC is going with the recurve. I don't really agree with there movement of NW at 9mph, but at least we are all monitoring something. We will have to see what happens.

Given the strength of the trough digging into the Western Atlantic (unseasonably strong for this time of year) which is confirmed by WV imagery analysis and depicted by all reliable model guidance, a recurve seems the safe bet as an initial forecast. Of course this may change as the NHC did mention there is alot of uncertainty with this one. But for the initial forecast, I think NHC made the right call showing a recurve.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurriGuy]

NHC is going with the recurve. I don't really agree with there movement of NW at 9mph, but at least we are all monitoring something. We will have to see what happens.

Given the strength of the trough digging into the Western Atlantic (unseasonably strong for this time of year) which is confirmed by WV imagery analysis and depicted by all reliable model guidance, a recurve seems the safe bet as an initial forecast. Of course this may change as the NHC did mention there is alot of uncertainty with this one. But for the initial forecast, I think NHC made the right call showing a recurve.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Oh yeah...initially I agree as well. They almost have to.

[gatorcane]

Rainbow IR loop...talk about some convection...

[cycloneye]

Imagine when DMAX arrives.

[Airboy]

Looks like the NE low is going to eat up TD7 with that massive blow up. Interesting to see what will happen.

[Aric Dunn]

im surprised they went with the coordinates they did..