ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: GABRIELLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1301 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 05, 2013 8:30 am

Also note that the plane is not finding anything remotely close to TS winds. Generally 10-15 kts.
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Re: ATL: GABRIELLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1302 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Sep 05, 2013 8:32 am

now every one writing GABRIELLE off after some say it alive day ago
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Re: ATL: GABRIELLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1303 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 05, 2013 8:37 am

floridasun78 wrote:now every one writing GABRIELLE off after some say it alive day ago


It was alive a day ago, now it appears it is not. :)

I think a good question is; will this reform north of PR?
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#1304 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Thu Sep 05, 2013 8:45 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-animated.gif
~~~~~~~~~~
I think the system is reorganizing closer to the center of where the energy is in the middle of the upper level high pressure shown in this vapor loop. I wouldn't be surprised to see an LLC develop around 18.0 and 63.0 or 64.0. Everyone assumed that the wave to the NE of Gabrielle would be engulfed into her but that isn't what happened. This could become quite an impressive system when this reorganization is done as this system encompasses a very wide area. Or maybe it shoots to the NE as the Euro suggests before it can reorganize.
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Re: ATL: GABRIELLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1305 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Sep 05, 2013 8:50 am

I personally think the models a few days ago had the right idea with the 2 vortmax idea, one that moved towards or near Hispaniola and one that went just east of PR so while it is rare we may end up with a second system with the MLC if the NHC goes with the LLCC as Gabby

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#1306 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Sep 05, 2013 8:55 am

Wow.. see the naked LLC near 68w 17.5N moving westward. That TW to the east appears to be taking over.
Last edited by Dean4Storms on Thu Sep 05, 2013 9:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#1307 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Sep 05, 2013 8:59 am

What is it this year about TC's in the Atlantic basin being unable to stack and deepen much?
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Re: ATL: GABRIELLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1308 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 05, 2013 9:00 am

tolakram wrote:I really do think the old LLC is SE of Hispaniola.

Looks like you nailed it. I see it there now too with more frames coming in on the VIS loop.

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Sep 05, 2013 9:04 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: ATL: GABRIELLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1309 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 05, 2013 9:03 am

Wind Shear.

Image
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#1310 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Sep 05, 2013 9:04 am

This is a complete disorganized mess.
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Re: ATL: GABRIELLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1311 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Sep 05, 2013 9:05 am

gatorcane wrote:
tolakram wrote:I really do think the old LLC is SE of Hispaniola.

Looks like you nailed it. I see it there now too with more frames coming in on the VIS loop.

http://img844.imageshack.us/img844/561/vuny.jpg


Yes that has to be the old LLC.
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Re: ATL: GABRIELLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1312 Postby Blown Away » Thu Sep 05, 2013 9:07 am

Image

Will the LLC continue towards Hispaniola and dissipate or will the MLC east of PR become the dominant area and build down to surface???
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#1313 Postby HurriGuy » Thu Sep 05, 2013 9:09 am

CalmBeforeStorm wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-animated.gif
~~~~~~~~~~
I think the system is reorganizing closer to the center of where the energy is in the middle of the upper level high pressure shown in this vapor loop. I wouldn't be surprised to see an LLC develop around 18.0 and 63.0 or 64.0. Everyone assumed that the wave to the NE of Gabrielle would be engulfed into her but that isn't what happened. This could become quite an impressive system when this reorganization is done as this system encompasses a very wide area. Or maybe it shoots to the NE as the Euro suggests before it can reorganize.


I am not too sure. There is plenty of wind sheer above these coordinates. IMO though.
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#1314 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Sep 05, 2013 9:09 am

That old LLC is toast, it is convectionless, shear overhead and headed for Hispaniola.
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Re: ATL: GABRIELLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1315 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 05, 2013 9:11 am

Under 20+ kts of shear I think re-organization is far from certain.

Latest GFS shear forecast (they are often wrong) doesn't show much improvement, if any.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2013090506&field=850-200mb+Shear&hour=Animation

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#1316 Postby 'CaneFreak » Thu Sep 05, 2013 9:14 am

So much for the UL anticyclone following Gabrielle to keep the shear low. Sheesh. :roll: The future for this system looks very bleak. Yet another one bites the dust in 2013. Is it November 31st yet? :D
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#1317 Postby HurriGuy » Thu Sep 05, 2013 9:19 am

Looks like sheer has got this system in the bag. IMO its a done deal in having to downgrade this.
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#1318 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Thu Sep 05, 2013 9:24 am

I find the psychology of this situation very interesting. If there had never been a Gabrielle everyone would be very excited about the nice mid level spin with the related deep convection and the nice anti-cyclone over top of it at around 18.0 and 65.0
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#1319 Postby christchurchguy » Thu Sep 05, 2013 9:24 am

What is the Mid-shear like?
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#1320 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 05, 2013 9:25 am

Definitely not looking good but if this system hangs around down there long enough, it can certainly find more favorable conditions once you look out several days into early next week.

The best thing is that the trough will come in soon and take it away but I am not so sure that is certain given the interaction we are seeing between Gabrielle and the system to the east.

Remember, this was one of the big forecast uncertainties many of us have been mentioning.

It's interesting the NHC hasn't really discussed the interaction uncertainty alot as far as track is concerned because their discussions seems to suggest they think a recurve will happen.

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Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Sep 05, 2013 9:27 am, edited 2 times in total.
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