ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[SouthFloridawx]

There is a ton of convection to the Northeast of this system.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-rgb.html

[wxman57]

As with any strong disturbance, Gabrielle could regenerate near the heavier convection, but it's no more than a rain threat to the islands of the NE Caribbean today and possibly tomorrow.

Lowering my season numbers to 13/4/1... Clearly, conditions aloft throughout the entire Northern Hemisphere are not favorable for TC development/intensification. NH ACE is below 50% of normal.

[HurriGuy]

Definitely looks like something interesting is going on south of Puerto Rico.


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[alienstorm]

Agreed - I would say at this point the biggest threat down the road is in October as we get into the Western Caribbean season. There is a lot of heat energy there and untapped, just believe that this season is going to show up as did the tornado season with one or two systems at the end.

Season updated numbers for me 10/2/1

[tolakram]

There is a ton of convection to the Northeast of this system.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-rgb.html

This would match the euro's idea of vorticity well NE of the old center, moving quickly north/north west.

The old LLC is still producing some convection.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-63&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

[alienstorm]

It is barely moving at this time I just don't think it will be regenerating it will be a mess down there for while but I would put the chances at no more than 2 in 10 at this time.

[gatorcane]

There is a ton of convection to the Northeast of this system.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-rgb.html

This would match the euro's idea of vorticity well NE of the old center, moving quickly north/north west.

The old LLC is still producing some convection.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-63&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

I am still thinking an area of disturbed weather will linger just a little north of Puerto Rico or the northern Leewards for several days if not longer into next week. Gabrielle's remants may try to drift WNW the next several days being steered by low-level flow but the east system will basically just linger around in weak steering currents, maybe drift a little north. I don't think this trough is going to be able to kick the system NE or N and out to sea as fast as some of the models want to have it move out. We will want to watch the leftover trough and remnants the next several days in case regeneration happens or something new forms.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Riptide]

For the record, it would stand a pretty good chance of regeneration if it was not on course to hit Hispaniola. Nontheless it's still a strong signal on the Euro and GFS, both keep it weak but trackable.

[wxman57]

For the record, it would stand a pretty good chance of regeneration if it was not on course to hit Hispaniola. Nontheless it's still a strong signal on the Euro and GFS, both keep it weak but trackable.

Very little of Gabrielle looks like it's going to touch the Dominican Republic. Squalls should remain east of the island for the most part. That's not the reason it's having problems.

[Riptide]

For the record, it would stand a pretty good chance of regeneration if it was not on course to hit Hispaniola. Nontheless it's still a strong signal on the Euro and GFS, both keep it weak but trackable.

Very little of Gabrielle looks like it's going to touch the Dominican Republic. Squalls should remain east of the island for the most part. That's not the reason it's having problems.

The old LLC looks like it will clip Hispaniola; that's what i am mostly referring to here.

[Aric Dunn]

For the record, it would stand a pretty good chance of regeneration if it was not on course to hit Hispaniola. Nontheless it's still a strong signal on the Euro and GFS, both keep it weak but trackable.

Very little of Gabrielle looks like it's going to touch the Dominican Republic. Squalls should remain east of the island for the most part. That's not the reason it's having problems.

The old LLC looks like it will clip Hispaniola; that's what i am mostly referring to here.

The strong easterly flow on the north side of DR and PR can in the past have aided the reformation of circs as they cross over DR. of course you would have to have convection lol

[Aric Dunn]

For the record, it would stand a pretty good chance of regeneration if it was not on course to hit Hispaniola. Nontheless it's still a strong signal on the Euro and GFS, both keep it weak but trackable.

Very little of Gabrielle looks like it's going to touch the Dominican Republic. Squalls should remain east of the island for the most part. That's not the reason it's having problems.

The old LLC looks like it will clip Hispaniola; that's what i am mostly referring to here.

The strong easterly flow on the north side of DR and PR can in the past have aided the reformation of circs as they cross over DR. of course you would have to have convection lol

Take a look at the loop notice the low level clouds thickening north of PR and DR I might put a little money that we get a good bit of convection there over the next many hours and the center jumps/ reform north of the mona passage..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/07L/flash-rgb-long.html

[Aric Dunn]

however you can really ignore that ginormous area of convection again lol could end up with that developing or both or none...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html

[Aric Dunn]

watch this are for convection to develop then a possible regeneration of the circ through the rest of today and overnight. There a couple signs already showing.

[Extratropical94]

TD Gabrielle is down to 25 knots according to the 18Z best track update.

AL, 07, 2013090518, , BEST, 0, 179N, 684W, 25, 1010, TD

[gatorcane]

Yet another 2013 system where upper-level outflow looks fantastic when looking at the WV loop, but not enough organization at the surface to keep anything going for long with MLC and LLC not vertically stacked. In this image the upper-level outflow seems to be expanding outward symmetrically around the MLC just east of Puerto Rico:

[Aric Dunn]

Yet another 2013 system where upper-level outflow looks fantastic when looking at the WV loop, but not enough organization at the surface to keep anything going for long with MLC and LLC not vertically stacked. In this image the upper-level outflow seems to be expanding outward symmetrically around the MLC just east of Puerto Rico:

[img]http://img46.imageshack.us/img46/1360/n7lj.gif[/ig]

the upper flow would also produce the same outflow if the llc had convection its not that its better over the mlc its just that there is convection reaching that level..

again watch north of the mona passage over the next 12 hours or so..

[Gustywind]

Decreasing numbers for TS Gabrielle...

05/1745 UTC 17.9N 68.4W T1.5/2.5 GABRIELLE
05/1145 UTC 17.7N 67.2W T2.5/2.5 GABRIELLE

[Gustywind]

2 PM TWD.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE AT 05/1800 UTC IS
NEAR 17.8N 68.4W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 49 NM TO THE
SOUTH OF PUNTA CANA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. GABRIELLE IS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 8 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1011 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON GABRIELLE
ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCPAT2...AND FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. GABRIELLE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 260 NM TO
THE EAST OF GABRIELLE. THIS WAVE IS ALONG 62W/64W TO THE SOUTH
OF 20N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 19N TO
22N BETWEEN 61W AND 64W. NUMEROUS STRONG IS REACHING SOUTHERN
COASTAL PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. NUMEROUS STRONG
ALSO COVERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM GUADELOUPE
TO DOMINICA TO MARTINIQUE. CLUSTERS OF RAINSHOWERS COVER THE
REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
05/1200 UTC... ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...ARE 2.07 IN ST. THOMAS IN
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND 0.85 IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

[AEWspotter]

watch this are for convection to develop then a possible regeneration of the circ through the rest of today and overnight. There a couple signs already showing.

I agree with Aric that if this thing has a chance it will reform the center north of PR -- definitely far from a certainty at this point. I would perhaps even extend his red circle a bit further to the east for potential LLC reformation.

The MLC from Gabrielle and the system to her NE are finally "merging". I think Gabrielle's MLC started interacting with the vorticity of the NE disturbance, because it was clearly pulled a bit to the east. In the meantime, that NE disturbance has moved more to the NNE of Gabrielle (as opposed to yesterday when it was NE and the day before when it was ENE). Is this system rotating around Gabrielle? Or is it simply feeling more "pull" to the N from the ULL? Regardless, I believe this NE disturbance is winning out, and if it consolidates, I would suspect that 20N, 65W would be an area worth watching.

This situation is so complex! The old LLC from Gabrielle is now at the SE tip of Hispanola, and it's firing some very localized convection, so it's not 100% done yet. The old LLC seems to have jogged more the N in the past hour or so, and it looks like it's elongating N-S a little bit. It's going to brush the eastern tip of Hispanola, so there is certainly a chance it holds together and emerges on the N side of the island. I don't think it's likely that this will be a player, but it bears watching.