When do you think the first hurricane will form in 2013?

[CrazyC83]

Moderators: can you make this a poll?

[CrazyC83]

I say late September. Even if the MDR stays locked up tight, something else will try to form at higher latitudes from a cutoff low, or perhaps a Gulf low will spin off a front that digs deep. We haven't reached the season for such formations at lower latitudes yet, although a well-organized (unnamed?) storm formed last week at about 39N latitude...

[tolakram]

I see cy on, hopefully he will do it.

I think we will be within a day of the record, either side. I want to set a new record, but with the Euro still showing something, when it usually shows nothing, I just don't know.

edit, I went with 11 to 20

[cycloneye]

Poll added Do you want a date for poll to close or leave it open all the time?

[CrazyC83]

Poll added Do you want a date for poll to close or leave it open all the time?

Thanks! Maybe close it on September 11, when the record would be broken.

[cycloneye]

Poll added Do you want a date for poll to close or leave it open all the time?

Thanks! Maybe close it on September 11, when the record would be broken.

Added closing time on the 11th at 11:05 AM EDT.

[cycloneye]

My vote is for October 1-15 from Western Caribbean formation.

[galaxy401]

I predicted the end of September. But really who knows...

[Ntxw]

Voted September 21-30, something from the Caribbean perhaps.

[Hurricane_Luis]

I voted for No hurricanes in 2013. At all. Not even After season reanalysis.

[Andrew92]

I suspect it will be in the middle part of September and be a quick-developing and short-lived storm of some sort. It definitely will not occur in the MDR, most likely I am thinking somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico and make landfall quickly after intensifying. Think a storm like Humberto or Lorenzo in 2007 (ironic those names are on this list huh?) While I am inclined to believe the record of September 11 in the satellite era will be broken this year, I can't imagine the record will be broken by a great lot.

-Andrew92

[CrazyC83]

Humberto and Lorenzo in 2007 weren't off tropical waves, correct?

[Andrew92]

You are correct on Humberto, it came from a frontal low. But Lorenzo did come from a tropical wave.

Source for Lorenzo coming from tropical wave: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL132007_Lorenzo.pdf

But with Fernand and the latest depression already having occurred in this area, I truly believe this is the most likely area for a quick-forming hurricane to form. I noticed there is some chatter about a possible disturbance of some sort approaching the Texas-Mexico border on about Monday. I'm not forecasting it to intensify per se, just something to note as a possibility for my type of scenario.

-Andrew92

[SeGaBob]

I voted September 11-20...mainly in hopes of the system over West Africa now.
If it does develop into a hurricane it might be a close call.

[Hurricane Jed]

Come on lets go for no hurricanes in a satellite era season. I'm rooting for historic

[Hammy]

I voted early October, at this point I'm thinking ~October 10.

[lilybeth]

I voted 11-20 as I think one will form in the first half of September.

[hurricaneCW]

I say late September and I also must say the chance we see no hurricanes for the rest of the season is extremely unlikely. Even with years with strong El Ninos we managed to get at least one hurricane.

We saw how quickly Fernand spun up and it likely would have been a hurricane had it had a bit more time over water, which would have killed off any latest hurricane record. All we need is one storm to find a temporarily favorable environment for it to become a hurricane.

The western Caribbean will be the hot zone as waves travel farther west and develop in the high heat content waters of the western Caribbean.

[TheStormExpert]

I went with the end of September (21 to 30). But you never know with the way this pathetic/aggravating season has been going there's always the possibility of no hurricanes.

[Hurricaneman]

Thursday